I have read in other speculative alternate history threads that the larger picture is not really driven by specific events. Things like WWII would have still happened without Hitler, WWI without Ferdinand’s assassination, etc. This thread is about two what ifs.
- Clinton manages to kill or capture bin Laden in the 1990s.
- Al Gore wins the 2000 USA presidential election.
I think both of those events are things that could have reasonably occurred in an alternate timeline. Here are my assumptions of what would have happened after the above two things occurring in the alternate timeline.
- My first assumption is that if the above two things had happened that 9/11 would not have occurred.
- With Gore as president the USA would not have gone to war in Iraq.
- Gore and subsequent American presidents and Western leaders in general would have not have had a good reason to be messing around with the internal politics of Middle Eastern countries and the wider world of Islamic countries (North Africa and Pakistan).
- As a result Al Qaeda gradually dies off since young people growing up in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan grow up without the West interfering in the affairs of their countries, and therefore do not have a reason to hate Western countries.
- Iran would still be Iran, but without all the other stuff going on they could gradually be brought back in to the full international community or continued to be isolated by sanctions if need be. Either way, it would be just Iran rather than all the other hot spots we currently have.
Help me with where I may have gone wrong. The first possible error is in the question itself. Maybe there really isn’t a conflict between the West and radical militant Islamic terrorists? If this is your belief, I would like to hear your reasoning for that belief.
Maybe things were going on in the Middle East and North Africa that would still have led to the rise of ISIS and all the other groups even without all the Bush year interventions. Maybe Gore and subsequent presidents would have still meddled in the Middle East even without the excuse of 9/11. This is the question I’m most interested in. Was the status of the Middle East around 2000 such that radical militant Islam would have arisen even without the mess that Bush caused?
My opinion is that had the above two things happened, the world would definitely be more peaceful, and that groups like ISIS and the radical Islamist terrorism that we have today would be in the process of dying down rather than gaining strength. What do you all think?