Too true. What’s the quote “Never attribute to malice what can be best explained by incompetence”?
This was my thought too… I mean, how bad could real training at a real Al Qeda camp be? The guy could have come away with a functioning bomb just by doing even a little bit of serious research on the internet. A real training camp would be better, or why haven’t we won the “war on terror”?
They guy also got a degree from a US university. How dumb can you be and still get an MBA (even if your dad does have connections at Harvard)? This guy if given proper training should have produced a credible bomb, he couldn’t have been that hard to train.
My impression was he wasn’t even seriously trying, it was more just one of those typical “cry for help” actions like we attribute to wayward kids. Except, he’s going to get an awful lot of the wrong kind of help.
I just noticed because of your post that there’s another thing the movie Heat did right: no cars even caught fire in the furious gun battle after the bank robbery, even though they were riddled with bullets.
OTOH, Jason Bourne was able to totally asplode a propane tank with a shotgun from about 30 yards. Oops.
Well, but he’s Jason f%$*&#g Bourne. He can do such things.
The idea of ripoff “Radical Training Camps” actually run by washout poseurs to separate terrorist-wannabe losers from their money is fascinating to contemplate. Then again, who knows, maybe in Pakistan they use cheapo inferior-quality propane tanks/petrol cans that DO explode easily…
I’m reminded of the “detective posing as hit-man” scenario. It’s possible that intelligence could uncover people who have destructive desires and direct them to less than competent training facilities.
Training camp attendance may not be enough to generate a conviction in many countries, so they just watch those people and wait for them to act on their false knowledge.
Is this why I can’t buy ammonium nitrate in Sav-On drug any more? I used to spread it on the lawn when my house chore was front lawn maintenance in my first bro-house out of college.
I played baseball with firemen and they say cars don’t blow up. One said he has seen a hundred cars burn. He flips open the hood and sprays them with no worries.
I can’t speak to intent, because I can’t provide sources to my opinions. I can, however, say that it was a haphazardly slapped-together “device,” which I think we can all agree had damn good potential to cause harm, but had less-than-a-good chance of actually detonating.
With what you all can see, it was clearly not a “professional job,” as in there was no reconnaissance, no specific targeting. . . hell, the guy took off his clothes in front of a CCTV camera–not the actions of a well-trained, well-planned, well-thought out operation.
Tripler
Sorry I’m late–most of my points have been beaten to death (a lot of speculation, too).
Assuming someone not stupid, would an amount of flash powder sufficient to rupture a properly prepared propane cylinder (weakened tank wall, properly tamped) actually work, or would the resultant mix be too rich?
(See: Mythbusters not blowing up a [del]privy[/del] port-a-potty because the mix was too rich.)
Is there any amount of flash powder that would initiate an ANFO bomb? (Yes or no, no details please!)
CMC fnord!
For everybody else, AIUI shit for brains bought his M88s in PA where they’re legal. Trouble is it takes ~50-60 M88s* to give you the same amount of flash powder that’s in one real M80.
*Or Mwhatevers, none of them can legally contain more than 0.05 grams of flash, an illegal real M80 contains 2.5-3 grams.
One M80 is just about enough to blow-up your average sheet metal mailbox (ask me how I know that ;)). Multiple M80s still won’t do much to a propane cylinder because they all need to go off at pretty much the exact same time. It’s really hard to do that by chaining them together with Visco fuse. There are more clever ways to get a single explosion from multiple M80s but they only work well with small numbers.
The obvious solution would be to remove the flash from say 10 M80s and make a “M800”, right? Problem is, 25 grams of flash is enough to explode in open air without constraint other than air pressure. One spark landing on the pile of flash and BOOM!
And the Green Man forbid you decide to mix up your own flash from one of the many recipes on the intertubes that call for a chlorate instead of perchlorate :eek:! Mixtures containing Chlorates are extremely sensitive to friction and impact. The single most dangerous part of making pipe pipe bombs is screwing the end-cap on, a little bit of mix on the threads and bye-bye hands :eek:.
Simple answer–rupture propane cylinder? I believe so, with proper preparations. The propane would be pretty rich, and unfortunately wouldn’t have the brisance to do much except make a big ol’ Hollywood fireball. Initiate ANFO? I don’t think so. . . not a high order detonation.
Tripler
My opinions are based off of back-‘o’-the-napkin math. Nuthin’ else. [sub]so don’t get any funny ideas, Al Qaeda, see?[/sub]
Does anybody know how often pathetic bombing attempts like this happen in the Middle East? I only read about successful bombings, but never failed bombing attempts. Is it because they simply don’t happen, or because the Western media doesn’t report it? What is the success rate for bombers in let’s say Iraq?
They happen often–often enough the timer or explosive train doesn’t work just right to detonate the main charge. You never hear about it because the Western media doesn’t have time to report them, and time is money.
I know some individuals who have worked between five to fifteen IEDs a day, for several weeks on end.
I see, that makes sense. I was just wondering how this Times Square device actually compares to the average bomb found (not necessarily detonated) in Iraq. Was this guy really incompetent compared with the average bomb-maker or just unlucky?
From what I’ve read and seen, “comically inept” would be two choice words. He got lucky in other areas, but I’m not gonna go into it.
For any other novices out there: Cookies ‘n’ cream (gallon size) ice cream makes a great main charge. Make sure it’s cold, so the detonation wave propagates better. Besides, melted cookies ‘n’ cream will just “snot” all over the place, and will probably leak out of the container. Double chocolate is also another great substitute.
Falkenberg said the device, as described by authorities, "doesn’t differ much at all from ‘The Anarchist Cookbook’ " — the underground 1971 manual for crude, homemade explosives. Revelations that the fertilizer used in the device never could have exploded was further proof the threat has been overplayed, he said.
“This is amateur hour,” he said. “My kids could build a better bomb than this.”