We want to see a shuttle launch while we still can. Best bet?

Until my parents sell their beach house we have digs in Fernandina Beach, which is a few hours away from the launch site. As we all know, you can get there and huddle out in the freezing cold and they don’t launch after all. So my question is, since I have to take off work to do this, are any of the launches more “sure things” than others? Specific shuttles, specific times of the year? Here’s what’s left:

February 4, 5:52 AM - Endeavour (why is it spelled like that, BTW?)
March 18, 1:34 PM - Discovery
May 14, 2:28 PM - Atlantis
July 29, 7:51 AM - Endeavour
September 16, 11:57 AM - Discovery

And that’s it, forever. Is the optimal strategy to hit February and hope that even if that one doesn’t go off we can try again in March? How long a notice do you usually get that it isn’t going to happen? (I know that’s hard to answer, when it could be anything from weather to a mechancial issue.) We have no mission preference or anything and I’ve wanted to go my whole life and it’s my last chance, so I’ll go to one at any time. (I did see a night launch once from the beach house driveway, which was awesome.) What’s the statistical probability of any of these launches occurring on time?

Cite. Sorry it’s not more authoritative. I had worse than bad luck trying to search NASA for this info.

Depends on what you mean by on time.

Their have been eleven STS missions since the start of 2007, with only two launching on the scheduled day. Four others launched with delays of 6 days or less. The other five had delays of over three weeks. The longer delays were either due to “mechanical” issues or scheduling issues relating to other missions. Those delays were typically announced long in advance.

Bottom line: if there’s a launch scheduled for next week and a delay hasn’t been announced, it’s likely to happen next week, though not necessarily on the exact day/time scheduled.

As for the name, wikipedia says:

You probably want to schedule a few-weeks vacation in Florida, starting on the day the Shuttle is scheduled to launch. Then, in all the time that it’s not actually launching, either before or after, go see Disneyworld or something.