Weirdly mixed feelings about Otto Warmbier (American student sentenced to 15 years in N Korea)

This is the kind of situation where I ask my universally useful question:

“What are the consequences of a miscalculation (i.e., something going horribly wrong)?”

IOW, if I’m wrong, how deep will be the shit I’m in?

For example, whenever I get up on a ladder and I’m all by myself, I put my cell phone on the ground at the bottom of the ladder. Because the consequences of my being wrong about avoiding falling could be disastrous. So take the precaution.

Stealing a bathrobe from a hotel? “What are the consequences of a miscalculation?” They add the cost of the bathrobe to my bill. Now I can decide if it’s worth it.

Stealing ANYTHING in North Korea? Especially something big that you can’t possibly hide? Especially in public? Especially something politically related?? :smack:

What was the intended payoff that made this huge risk seem worth taking at the time? People do take huge risks with huge consequences, but for good reasons (and knowing the consequences) like saving a life, upholding a principle, maintaining one’s integrity in the face of an important challenge or test.

But this?

I think you need to consider the possibility that the guy was set up by the North Koreans, looking for a bargaining chip in light of current tensions, or with other political aims.

Meaning, he may not have realized that he was “stealing” the sign.

(My bolding)

You sure put a lock of stock in the word of a propaganda-obsessed authoritarian regime, that has every reason to detain foreigners on bogus charges.

Certainly possible.

No you are not, he is still a criminal even if the punishment is much too harsh for the crime. I find it as hard to feel bad for him as it would be to feel bad about someone going for a swim in shark infested waters.

Has there been any statement from the group he claims wanted to buy the propaganda banner?

No sympathy. I’ve always hated warm beer anyway.

I think taking a poster could be reasonably construed as undermining the regime. He certainly was in the wrong and the punishment was excessive by orders of magnitude. He’ll be released by Christmas after a high ranking US official comes to get him.

I’ve always thought if you were careful to keep your nose clean, NK would be fine to visit. Bow when you’re supposed to and only photograph things when your accompanying NK watchdog says explicitly that you may. Be polite and don’t steal. How hard can it be?

But do we really know he actually took the poster?

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]

I’ve always thought if you were careful to keep your nose clean, NK would be fine to visit. Bow when you’re supposed to and only photograph things when your accompanying NK watchdog says explicitly that you may. Be polite and don’t steal. How hard can it be?
[/QUOTE]

Unless they just want to cause an incident and pick a random patsy, which I could easily see happening.

I put it his victimhood on par with walking through a bad neighborhood holding hundred dollar bills in your hand: it doesn’t give anybody the right to mug you, but it’s hard to generate a lot of sympathy.

That’s the thing that seems to be overlooked here. How do we know he actually DID try and steal a poster? I mean, isn’t everyone’s bullshit detector going off by this story of $20k for a poster? To me, this is like the story of lil’ Kimmy V2.0 hitting 18 holes in one the first time he played golf, or how all the men of the world dress up as him because he was so handsome and manly in his psudo-military garb. To me, it seems that they trumped up some charges because tensions with the west are at an all time high, and economic sanctions are ratcheting up as the NKs continue to push the envelop with supposed hydrogen bomb tests and miniaturization of warheads coupled with repeated missile launches to prove their supposed capabilities. It’s a bit too pat that this guy just happened to get an offer to steal a poster for $20k and was caught right when all this stuff was happening.

The problem when a regime like the NKs lies about basically everything, exaggerates basically everything is that you can never actually trust anything they say at all. Did this guy steal the poster? No idea, but it just seems so unlikely a story and the NKs lie so much that I can’t think of any proof they could show me that I’d buy. The guys confession? That’s a joke. Eye witness accounts? Same. Hell, if they had video of the guy stealing the poster I wouldn’t buy it. And the ridiculous sentence just proves the case, IMHO…it’s all too pat, as I said.

[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
I think taking a poster could be reasonably construed as undermining the regime. He certainly was in the wrong and the punishment was excessive by orders of magnitude. He’ll be released by Christmas after a high ranking US official comes to get him.

I’ve always thought if you were careful to keep your nose clean, NK would be fine to visit. Bow when you’re supposed to and only photograph things when your accompanying NK watchdog says explicitly that you may. Be polite and don’t steal. How hard can it be?
[/QUOTE]

And if they decided to frame you for something to make an example of you or to put pressure on the US during a time of heightened tension? To me, anyone who goes to North Korea at any time, much less at this time are flipping a coin with their lives or at least with their short and medium term freedom, regardless of how polite you are, or who you bow too. YMMV, and hopefully if you go, Bob, someone from the State Department will be along at some point to get you out of there.

FWIW, they do have a video of him stealing the poster (taken by a hotel security cam). Though as noted earlier, it’s hard to be sure he knew he was “stealing” it, as opposed to having been set up (e.g. he may have been told he could/should take it down).

Pretty much my thinking too. For me, the risks far outweigh the rewards of visiting such an admittedly fascinatingly weird country.

I suspect this as an elaborate plan to meet Dennis Rodman! :cool:

More likely meaning that there was no theft of any kind. The person in that video could have been anyone. I’m not prepared to believe that Warmbier brought an all-black outfit and mask with him to North Korea.

It’s almost like they don’t exist!

[QUOTE=Tom Tildrum]
It’s almost like they don’t exist!
[/QUOTE]

Which would imply to me that they’re made of wood. Or something like that…

There is a video of someone doing something, to be sure. However, even if we buy that the video is authentic, which I personally don’t, you can hardly say this is evidence of, well, anything. The video quality is hardly good enough to tell it’s a human doing whatever it is they are doing, let alone a specific human.

How much do you want to bet that those South Koreans don’t fuck with the north Koreans while they are there. There is an incredible amount of arrogance involved in going to the one of the most repressive police states in the world and swiping a sign.

I think he did it.

I think he did it so he could have shits and giggles about it later when he came back to America.

He got caught fucking around and only now is it dawning on him that we aren’t about to go to war with a nuclear power for him.

North Korea has been looking for leverage to negotiate relaxing the sanctions and a few more “dudes” like this one and they might just get it.

This approaches Darwin award winner.

What do you base all of this on? You think he did it, obviously, but why? Is it based on the trial? On some evidence that this guy had a history of similar pranks or actions? Is it based on North Korea’s history of rigor in reporting and transparent attitude towards the press? Perhaps it’s based on your assessment of the probability of the coincidence of this guy doing his ‘prank’ just when tensions between North Korea and pretty much the rest of the world, including China have risen? Just curious where you are coming from with these assertions.

My WAG is he did. I believe that from time to time, the DPRK has “need” of an American “hostage” or “prisoner” so to speak. I believe that it suits the propaganda purposes of the regime for the American to have actually committed an offense. Evidence? Aside from one exception, every other American we know (outside of military incidents) who has been detained in North Korea committed an offense.

The full list of Americans who entered North Korea and their known offense:

Evan Hunziker, Euna Lee, Laura Ling, Robert Park, Aijalon Gomes - All entered the DPRK illegally. There is no real contesting this, they all did it. The two female journalists who worked for Al Gore’s news channel (Lee and Ling) have equivocated on this a bit, as to whether they only briefly ran into North Korea and then back and were followed by DPRK guards, or whether they were actually apprehended in the DPRK, but they don’t really contest they crossed the border illegally. [If you’re wondering how this is possible–it’s not done across the DMZ, the rivers that separate North Korea from China freeze over often in winter, and can be walked across. There are certainly North Korean border guards about so it’s not easy to just walk in and walk out, but it’s not anything like the DMZ, you can definitely cross (either way) without being seen–but you run the risk of being caught. Most of the North Korean who have escaped the country have used this very route.]

Eddie Jun Yong-Su - This one we don’t know fully, because DPRK didn’t elaborate much in the press releases about him and neither him or his family has been very forthcoming. However it is believed by news sources that sometimes have information out of North Korea that while operating a business in North Korea he was performing illegal missionary work. It should be noted this isn’t atypical, a few other people have done this both of American and South Korean nationality. It’s difficult, but not impossible, for certain foreigners to be able to operate certain types of business in special regions or special industries in North Korea. It is one of the few ways anyone from the outside can get any access to “real” locals at all, and thus is an attractive route for the foolhardy secret missionaries. From what I can tell all of the individuals who have done this have either South Korean or Chinese citizenship (or like Yong-Su, have dual American and South Korean citizenship.)

Kenneth Bae - Essentially the same as Yong-Su, he set up a tour business in the DPRK and was using it to do missionary work. He hasn’t really denied this to my knowledge.

Matthew Miller - He traveled to North Korea intentionally to get arrested, so he could do some “subversive journalism.” Of course, as an American during his detention he had no contact with “normal” North Korean prisoners. He 100% admitted this was his plan when he was released and returned to the United States.

Jeffrey Fowle - Left a bible in a bathroom of a bar that was sometimes used by normal North Koreans (it was cleared out for his tour group.) While it’s possible he did this as an innocent mistake, not understanding what he was doing, when he made it back to the United States he explained himself fully. He said he knew what he was doing, did it intentionally to spread Christianity in North Korea, and he considered it “worth the cost” of being detained for six months.

Merrill Newman - This is the one who it appears genuinely did nothing overt. Other than, he was a Korean War veteran, and the DPRK’s intelligence services was able to determine his history while he was in the country and detained him over actions he was involved in during the Korean War. It’s not believed he did any of the blatantly and intentionally illegal things the other detainees did.

Right now there are two Americans held by North Korea, and we cannot ascertain what they actually did until they are released (and give interviews): Kim Dong Chul and Otto Warmbier. But at least from our history, it looks like the North Koreans generally do not “trump up” charges against Americans or detain them and them frame them for things. Maybe they would if they needed to, but I think it best serves their propaganda goals for the detentions to be for legitimate actions the individuals took. With a few thousand Americans visiting North Korea every year via the guided tours, they have plenty of opportunity to catch a few Americans breaking the law anytime they “need” a detainee. I suspect that a lot of the Americans who go over try to engage in secret missionary work (and most probably fail in even coming close to a “real” North Korean), and that often the North just ignores it, choosing to detain them when they have need of a detainee.