Well Sam… look at the bright side…
As I’ve pointed out recently, one of the 5 “Golden Ideals” that are shared by ALL stable societys down through history and presently across the globe, is this - a commitment by that society to uphold a free press and the right of dissent. As much as I recoil with mortified embarassment as I read some of the opinions being expressed at the moment, nonetheless, I rejoice in the right of folks to exercise their “right to add a dissenting voice” if they choose.
Still, it has to be said… Syria is no clean angel by any stretch of the imagination. She was one of the original combatants in the Isreal War of 1948 and was also involved in the '67 and '73 wars too. She supports the Druze majority of the Lebanon and openly allows Hezbollah to run the civil affairs of the southern quarter of that country. She plays off many sordid interests amongst one another and thus far, somewhat miraculously, has avoided having to pay her dues for all of the overt, and covert, meddling she has done down through the years.
It’s generally agreed that Lebanon is now an economic anchor on Syria. Lebanon has been trading in the “red” for quite some time and the stability in Lebanon has only been achieved through Syria’s patronage over the last 13 years. However, it seems Syria is positioning herself to extricate herself from Lebanon - which will leave a power vacuum there too - but on a much larger scale than what we’re seeing in Iraq at the moment.
Most reasonable pundits agree that there’s very little “end game” in it for Syria to be openly assisting Saddam’s regime - apart from the egotistical wank achieved by playing up to Arab Street. There’s a bit of ego involved in it for sure - after all, the B’aath Party was created there in 1947 and thereupon exported to Iraq, so there’s a sense of Saddam’s regime having a sort of “fleeing to the motherland” as it were.
Arab Street, rightly or wrongly, is a region awash with a seemingly ENDLESS list of disincentives NOT to change - many, MANY layers of power base are in jeopardy if things profoundly undergo a quantum shift in perception. And the strata run across many demographics… national boundaries, tribal boundaries, religious boundaries, ethnic boundaries…
Ultimately, I think most reasonable people would agree with the following… only recently, through Al-Jazeera of all things, has a genuinely pan-Arabic freedom of the press entered into the fray. Certainly, Al-Jazeera plays up to Arab Street sensitivities - and why shouldn’t it? It’s a ratings war after all. But equally true is that Al-Jazeera is also staffed by many ex BBC trained folks - and it seems a committment to the truth is also right at the top of their charter.
All the USA has to do is to state her case honestly, admit past mistakes where it’s necessary, and to do so regularly with humility and contrition on Al-Jazeera and the dust will settle rather fairly.
Syria is an excellent litmus test of my theories actually.
As I said, there’s very little “end-game” for Syria to fight a war with the USA via insurgent proxy when the people of Iraq herself wish to move on to a better life. Even Al-Jazeera will call such a policy for what it is…