What about Wisconsin and Iowa?

Great Debates
1

According to a story on msnbc.com:

In Iowa, Gore beat Bush by only 5,253 votes out of 1,262,685 cast for the two of them. (I’m not including votes for the other candidates.) Iowa is worth 7 EC votes.

In Wisconsin, Gore beat Bush by only 5,291 votes out of 2,474,572 votes cast for the two of them. Wisconsin is worth 11 votes.

If the re-count in Florida gives it to Gore, shouldn’t Bush ask for a re-count in those two states and make sure that Gore actually won there? And this could make Oregon’s 7 EC votes important as well. Unfortunately for Gore, Bush is ahead of him by more than 22,000, so it’s unlikely a re-count would help him there as it has in Florida.

ALL THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:

  1. Gore gets Florida, Bush concedes.

  2. Gore loses Florida and concedes. (This looks like the most likely scenario.)

  3. Gore gets Florida, Bush challenges vote in Wisconsin and Iowa, but still loses both. Oregon still irrelevant. Gore wins.

  4. Gore gets Florida, Bush calls for re-count in Wisconsin and Iowa, WINS Iowa, loses Wisconsin again, Oregon still irrelevant. EC is 274 for Gore. Gore wins, Bush concedes.

  5. Gore gets Florida, Bush requests re-count in Iowa and Wisconsin and both states go to Bush. Gore now has 267 EC votes, needs Oregon to win, but Bush gets it. Bush has 271, Gore concedes.

  6. Gore gets Florida and Iowa, loses Wisconsin and Oregon. EC total for Gore is 281.

  7. Most unlikely scenario of all: Gore gets Florida, loses Wisconsin and Iowa, but wins Oregon. (Someone finds a box of waterlogged Gore ballots in the Columbia River. :D) Gore gets 274 votes and wins.

Whatever happens, Bush has until November 20 to file a challenge in Wisconsin (I don’t know what the deadline is in Iowa.)

New Hampshire may be a factor because Bush won it by only 7,282 votes. Gore could call for a re-count there, but there are only 4 EC votes at stake there, so this is unlikely.

So, even if Gore wins Florida, it STILL may not be over!!!

2

Heard a little while ago that the popular vote in Iowa was actually Gore by only 2700.Their wondering if Bush will ask for a recount.

3

The differences here, even if Iowa is at 2700, are still about ten times a greater percentage difference than there was in Florida. The difference in the original Florida results were about .03%, these two states are closer to .2%. Its the equivalent of there having been a 12,000 vote advantage for Bush in Florida. If that had been the case, there still would have been a recount (since its less than .5%), but nobody would expect it to change the results.

4

Karl Rove just announced a probable recount in both of those states. There is also a recount going on in one county in New Mexico.