Team Obama is clearly putting Healthcare Reform above cap and trade on its to-do list this year and I have heard that the votes for getting some form of cap and trade are there in the House, even with some opposition from Blue Dogs, but that it would be a more difficult slog in the Senate. Some analyses doubt that Specter’s switch will change his vote on cap and trade all that much, a conclusion supported by the fact that Obama did not include climater change on that list of items he is looking forward to working with Specter on.
So what are its chances and what would it need to look like to get the support of those swingable votes? Who is on that list?
The Economy is going to be a huge hammer for opponents to carbon emissions regulations to wield, and I see no actual legislation on carbon passing in this Congressional term. Can you picture the adverts?
The best I see out of this first term is continued expansion of wind and solar subsidies using more money the government doesn’t actually have.
It’s very possible that the EPA will use its new powers over carbon to roll out large-scale tracking and accounting requirements of several different GHG emissions. I expect this will be challenged again in court, and the EPA will win, but not for a couple of years. I am uncertain if I think the EPA will extend its authority over automotive carbon emissions to stationary sources, even though it seems like a no-brainer.
I’m sure compromise is possible, but I think the big guns (Obama, Pelosi, etc.) have other items of legislation high on their lists - economic stimulus and health care are very high priorities.
I don’t think its a good idea to wait, but I think cap and trade is probably going to have to wait at least until next year, possibly 2011 if economic news is still bad leading into the 2010 elections.