With Kerry and Edwards still Senators, I have a few questions about their seats should they win.
How many years left of their current terms are there? I’m thinking back to Leiberman hedging his bets being on both the VP ticket as well as the Senate ticket in CT.
If they are elected, what are the election laws in MA and NC concerning a successor? Does the governor appoint? Legislature vote? Special election?
Edwards’s term is expiring and he is not running for reelection, so if he’s not elected VP, he’s out of office.
Kerry’s term will continue. If he loses the election, he goes back to the Senate. If he wins, he must resign. Usually, the governor of the state will appoint a replacement to fill out the term, but that would depend on Massachusetts law.
OK, I thought one was up for reelection, but wasn’t sure. Instead of opening a new thread in IMHO, I’d like to add a further question. Why isn’t Edwards running again in NC? This race is going to be so close it would give him at least a fighting chance of staying in DC one way or the other. Or is he going for VP or bust? Is he looking to get back into private practice?
IMO, I think it would look kinda bad running for Veep and US Senator simultaneously and he’d probably take a lot of flack for not being serious enough to run for prez if it looks like he’s hedging bets on re-election too.
Part of Edwards’ calculation is surely that Erskine Bowles, Clinton’s former Chief of Staff, is a strong Democratic candidate for the seat. It’s not certain that Bowles will win, but it is a decent bet that the seat will remain Democratic if Edwards ends up getting a new job in the Executive Branch this year.
Which, by an incredible coincidence, was just changed by the Democratic legislature, over the GOP governor’s veto, to leave the seat open until a special election a few months later. If Kerry loses, his term expires at the end of 2006.
Lieberman did that last time. No way of knowing what effect it had, though.
:smack: Forgot about that.
::sigh:: I mentioned it in #1 of my OP. I’m gonna go feel bad for awhile. Hope you enjoy my pain, ya bastard. 
Keep in mind one important difference between the Edwards and Lieberman situations–Edwards ran for President before he ran for Vice-President. To meet the North Carolina filing deadline of February 27, he would have had to file for re-election while his presidential campaign was still active. That wouldn’t have looked good. It also would have annoyed other North Carolina Democrats who wanted to know in advance whether the seat was going to be open or not. Lieberman, by contrast, was minding his own business as late as June 2000 when he was suddenly tapped to run for Vice-President.
Surely Edwards’ better insurance policy is a poor Democrat candidate so that if he loses, in four years he can decide to contest the seat again against a Republican incumbent rather than a Democrat one?
Senators serve six year terms.
Two important calculations for Edwards:
The seat that he currently holds is notable in that the incumbent has not been re-elected since about 1976.
North Carolina is a majority-Republican state. Six years ago, Edwards managed to upset a weak Republican incumbent, but this time he would automatically be the underdog. It’s a question how popular he is in North Carolina. When he was chosen by Kerry on the ticket, it was pointed out that the choice seemed to have more positive effect in midwestern states like Ohio than in North Carolina.
There’s no firm rule for this. Bob Dole, for example, resigned from the senate in midterm to run for president. The only certainty is that a winning candidate will resign his lesser office, if he still holds it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravenman
“Part of Edwards’ calculation is surely that Erskine Bowles, Clinton’s former Chief of Staff, is a strong Democratic candidate for the seat. It’s not certain that Bowles will win, but it is a decent bet that the seat will remain Democratic if Edwards ends up getting a new job in the Executive Branch this year.”
If Bowles gets beat by his Republican opponent, Richard Burr, the seat will not remain Democratic. “W” has been to NC several times recently stumping for him with Senator Dole.
I think Ravenman’s point was that, if Edwards win the VP contest, his coattails (and those of Kerry, obviously) will carry Bowles into office, as well.
In 1880, Rep. James Garfield had already been elected to a Senate seat by the Ohio legislature and would have taken that job had he lost the election to Winfield Scott Hancock (which was pretty close).
And he probably wouldn’t have died as soon either.
I remember reading news reports prior to the 2000 election saying that the Democrat backroom people were grumbling about Lieberman running for both at once, making him not look serious, running the risk of the seat coming open again if he got elected Veep, etc., etc.
After the election, the same backroom people were falling over themselves to thank Lieberman for hanging onto the seat in the closely divided Senate, etc., etc.
Context is everything.
Couple of points:
Bowles started out well ahead of Burr in popularity – public recognition from his 2000 bid when he lost to Mrs. Dole helped. Burr was catching up, when he made a serious mistake. He started mud-slinging, accusing Bowles of things that happened while he was Clinton’s White House Chief of Staff but which Bowles had no actual part in (at least as far as any objective observer can tell). This opened the door to some reverse mudslinging that the Bowles camp had up until then held off on, and people found out how far in the pockets of special interest groups Burr had been. And the most recent polls have shown him losing ground.
Second, as probably no political observer needs to be reminded, Edwards was a successful private-sector trial lawyer prior to unseating Lauch Faircloth in 1998. [Interesting campaign – it included the only occasion I’ve ever seen when a non-incumbent candidate got an endorsement on a restaurant menu! (Vertigo Café in Raleigh named a salad after Edwards during the campaign.)] While Edwards seems to have a lot of ambition, he doesn’t need to keep a Washignton toehold – he came, quite literally out of nowhere, to defeat Faircloth; prior to that campaign he had not been active in politics, at least any more than any other prominent lawyer without a case of candidatitis – I’m sure he had his ear to the ground for political vibrations like any man in his shoes, but AFAIK he was not spoken of as a likely candidate until that race.