Well, nobody will know till it happens…but what are the chances of that Brazilian cardinal l becoming the next pope? As I see it, and American will never be pope (too much suspicion of the American hierarchy by the Italians). The european candidates are too old (like Ratzinger) or too radiacal). Plus,a Pole has already been pope. Africa: the world is not ready for an african pope-too much potential conflict with the islamic world. That leaves Asia: the only possibilities are the Philippine cardinal (Jaime Sin) or perhaps a Chinese cardianl.
My bet is Latin America: the continent needs attention, if the RC church is to thrive there. So it would be logical to elect the Brazilian.
What’s your take?
I can’t seegiving it back to the Italians…the’ve had it too long already!
Well, if he’s allowed to fight his way up using ju-jitsu…
I expect the next Pope to not veer radically from JPII on any issue – some may be a little less tolerant of the sexual abuse catchees, some might inject a little more forcibly into the debt or social justice stuff or decentralize/centralize some Vatican powers … but no major change on faith issues.
Except for Hummes on stem cells & maybe (possibly) contraception.
The SCENE: He was getting on a plane to bury JPII, knew he was seen as “papiable”, and knew his words were going to flash round the world. He could have come up with the usual pabulum. Instead he said:
- … when Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes, a contender to become the next pope, criticized what he suggested was a church out of touch with contemporary life.
“The church must adapt to the modern world,” Hummes, the Archbishop of San Paolo, said before heading to Rome. “It can’t give ancient answers to new questions.”
The next pope, he added, “must respond to progress and maintain a serious dialogue with science.”
For Vatican watchers, there’s little doubt that Hummes is partly calling for a change in Pope John Paul II’s hardline conservative position on issues of sexuality, particularly on the use of contraceptives, which the late Pope has flatly rejected.
The Papal ban has been criticized for endangering lives in Africa, where AIDS runs rampant, and for portraying the church as hopelessly out of date to Catholics in the Western societies, where pews are empty.
On science, Hummes’ was likely referring to the divisive debate in the church over issues such as stem-cell research, analysts say.*
http://www.metronews.ca/news_feature_detail.asp?id=7371
It was as clear as one of the papaible Cardinals is going to get. You tell me what the Cardinals think of that, how relatively important they think these issues are, and I will tell you his chances. My WAG is 9 to 1 against is about right.
My guess is he is too liberal.
Sin isn’t even in the running, btw. He’s over 90 and ailing. He spent quite a bit of time this past year in the hospital. Even if they want a relatively short tenured Pope after JPII, Sin’s would likely be TOO short, if he even wanted it at this point.
Actually he’s 76 and ailing.
Brazilian? I think the chances are decent. If the cardinals decide that going with a Latin American Pope is a good idea, since almost half of the world’s Catholics are there these days - and Brazil has the most Catholics of any country, I think - there’s definitely reason to think it could happen.
I don’t think an African cardinal would be that much of a problem, and one who has experience dealing with Islam (as, for example, Arinze is supposed to) could be a plus.
Are there any Chinese cardinals? I don’t think they’ll name a secret cardinal to the post. I saw one Indian in beagledave’s list.
My mistake! I could’ve sworn I’d read that he was in his 90s.
The Economist this week opines that a Latin American pope is unlikely for the simple fact that Latin America is one of the few places where the Catholic Church is doing all right. They don’t have the problems filling the pews and finding priests there that they have in N. America and Europe, they don’t have the black mark of the US sex scandals, they’re not competing with other religions as they are in Africa, they don’t have to struggle against oppresive gov’ts (Cuba aside) as they do in China, etc. etc. As the Latin American Church doesn’t need the boost of having one of thier number choosen as pope, and a pope from amonst them is unlikely to bring a native focus on one of the many problems that will face the Church in the coming years, it seems like it would be kind of a “waste” of a pick.
Hmm…JP II was a European, so I don’t see much reason to think another European pontiff would fill the pews any better. A pope from the US could definitely give the RCC a boost in North America. However, it looks like the idea of a pope from the US is a long shot. If the cardinals are thinking in terms of marketing the Church, the obvious choice would be an African.
JPII wasn’t just a European, he was a Pole. He’d been a seminarian, priest, bishop and cardinal under the Communists, which gave him a fairly unique viewpoint for a European cardinal (as Poland was one of the few strongly Roman Catholic Eastern Bloc countries). Worked out pretty well from that perspective, actually…
RIght now, I’ll go out on a limb and say Zero chance. Just a guess though
Well for the next few years anyway. But yaknow he is kinda old.