I believe I read that NASA or some agency is constantly scanning the firmament looking for a meteor capable of retaining enough mass to cause a disaster on this planet, hoping to get about 20 years lead time so those who know best can figure out what to do about it. Also, the most probable cause of Chicago’s great fire was meteorites from a comet that was crossing Earth’s path and breaking up. Multiple fires would be quite possible and help explain the conflagration. There were 2 other fires the same day.
And the column being referred to is What are the chances of a huge meteor smashing us flat?
I think the chances are about 100% that the earth will experience another devastating meteor impact.
It’s the when that is the BIG question.
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You’ll hear this phrase a lot around here, so don’t think I’m picking on you, but cite, please? Even if the fire wasn’t literally started by a cow kicking over a lantern, there are still a lot of simpler theories than meteors starting the fires. Any meteor big enough to start a fire would also be big enough to leave some very noticeable physical evidence.
Oh, and welcome!
He’s not just pulling it out of the ether, Chronos. I can’t find a better link yet (maybe someone else can), but here’s a mention of it by our own Bad Astronomer (It’s down toward the bottom of the page).
As for the reprint of the column itself, I’m surprised, considering what’s been learned in the past 25+ years, that an update wasn’t added to the end, such as the pretty conclusive evidence of the Chicxulub event or the currently favored theory on the formation of the moon.
Thanks, Linus; you’re right, I wasn’t pulling it out of the ether, but apparently someone was. At http://www.peshtigofire.info/ there is a thorough discreditation of the book “Mrs. O’Leary’s Comet, …” which I was referring to.
Oh, and thanks for the welcome, Chronos.
Paul
>What are the chances of a huge meteor smashing us flat?
Very good, providing that it hits us.
Also, the assertion that some agency is constantly scanning the sky looking for near Earth objects (NEO) is very misleading. This activity is very poorly funded, and mostly being done by amateur astronomers on their own. I believe a few years ago the UK put some funding to the effort, but this is still drastically underfunded from the standpoint of mapping NEOs.
The chances are 50-50. Either it will or it won’t. 
I have read that Peshtigo, Wisconsin had a fire the same night as the great Chicago fire. In Wisconsin, 1500 were killed. In Chicago, 300.