What are the likely next big geopolitical changes?

Great Debates
21

Over the next fifty years? I would expect to see a united South America and a united southern Africa, but along the lines of the EU, not the USA. They will primarily be economic and social unions, more than political. Member states will still have strong local autonomy, but a common military and navy, a common currency, and common passports with free travel among its members.

The Arab world may do the same, along with another union among the central Asian countries.

The big changes? China buys Siberia from Russia. First the region south of the Stanovoy Range and west to Lake Baikul. Russia agrees since most of the population speaks Chinese more than Russian anyway. The next round they buy everything east of the Lena River. To the south, they annex Burma through a referendum (who receives some very strong financial incentives also), giving them direct access to the Bay of Bengal.

In response to those moves, India and Bangladesh reunite, possibly with Bhutan and Nepal also, and SE Asia forms its own political union (Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc, possibly Indonesia and/or Japan as well), but a very messy one.

Europe settles its financial crises, and after its third or fourth constitution, settles on something everyone mostly agrees with.

The USA finally agrees to a civil divorce. The West Coast and the Northeast create the United States of North America with Canada, and the South, the Plains states and the inter-Mountain west forming the United Christian States of America. All minorities and non-Christians move to the USNA. Both sides prosper.

Also the Caribbean and Central America for the Union of the Caribbean and Latin America. The University of California - Los Angeles sues for trademark infringement. They lose.

Yet, ironically, perhaps, while the geopolitical map consolidates, local regions and cities get more autonomy than under the current system. Federalism is rejected in favor of subsidiarity. National governments are mostly diplomats dealing with other nations, with little say over domestic policies which are left to individual regions to settle. City councils hold the most power, not national legislatures which are demoted to investigative committees and research services only. They can advise, but no longer dictate.

Also, the biggest political change will be that governments compete to see who can deliver the highest HDI and standard of living at the lowest cost (in energy/resource terms) than striving to have the highest GDP or biggest baddest army. 30 hour work weeks and two month vacations become standard since most work is automated. Robots are common place. World GDP stabilizes around $20K per capita. People spend most of their time on cultural activities than economic.

22

Agnostic Pagan, did you deliberately come up with a long list of things very unlikely to happen in the next 50 years?

23

And after Oil, Water.

24

I think you’re being far too negative regarding nuclear weaponry. Outside of North Korea, no government on the planet would risk using nuclear arms unless absolutely necessary. Let alone a democratic government like the United Kingdom’s, over some far-away islands.

Given the unpredictability of Argentina’s leaders, I can see them invading the Falklands in the near future. But the UK’s response will go more along the lines of getting the international community on Argentina’s back than physically attacking the country.

My own predictions: I expect a lot of border changes all throughout Europe. Scotland will be having a referendum on independence soon, and other regions like the Basque Country, Catalonia or Flanders have either taken big steps in the same direction, or increasingly likely to do so. I don’t think these regions will simply ‘accept’ to belong to Spain/Belgium/UK in the near future, so I would bet on the opposite happening sooner or later.

The European Union will see more internal quarrelling over these issues, as Denmark, Sweden and others recognise the newly independent countries, angering Spain and (what’s left of) Belgium. Together with the UK’s constant threats to leave the union, and the tension brought by former Yugoslav republics, the EU’s role is questioned once again.

Globally, I would expect the resurgence of South East Asia and Oceania. Namely Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, as well as the countries just north and south of them. They will all punch above their weight, and manage to grow without facing the resistance than Chinese growth will face.

25

I forgot the Ogallala Aquifer (and other fossil aquifers). This may be a big geopolitical change in the next 50 years, since when this dries up America will no longer be able to be the breadbasket to the world, with unforeseen consequences.

But two consolation prizes for my stomach: one, America will still be able to feed itself due to the eastern midwest not relying on fossil water. Two, much of the land will probably be converted to ranchland which means that even if we globally try to cut down on meats due to scarce food and/or water resources there will still be plenty of meat in America.

26

At some point, robotically-aided manufacturing will lead to the development of robots with eye-hand coordination skills that match and soon exceed human beings, and the labor market (many service markets as well) will collapse, leaving billions of people around the world unemployable by modern standards.

This will be felt first, worst and foremost in Asia, where manufacturing jobs (the first to go) are concentrated, and where the wealthy and powerful have a long tradition of treating the poor, especially the rural poor, as unwanted vermin. Massive die-offs are very possible. China will have a serious problem here and may well experience one of those popular revolts that happen every so often. However, if the leadership was smart enough to embrace a limited form of capitalism, and may be smart enough to realize that the robotic revolution can produce more than enough goods to feed, clothe and shelter all their people, and instead of civil unrest get a more stable government.

The European democracies with the exception of Russia will weather the economic storm better than anyone else, due to their tradition of taking an all-inclusive approach to managing their economies, and will prosper accordingly. Russia, being run by a group of thuggish oligarchs who regard success as conning/brutalizing everyone else into accepting their power, will probably suffer as badly as the Asian countries, leading to a desperate flight to the safety and stability of Europe by many poor/middle class Russians. This outcome MAY be preventable if Russia returns to communism and embraces its worker class and extends the benefits of robotic manufacturing to its people, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Also, conflict between Russia and China may erupt into war over Siberia and it’s resources, if China better manages its robotic issues than Russia, which I think very likely. China may very well expand into southeast Asia as well if it does not succumb to it’s natural oligarchic tendencies.

The Middle Eastern and North African oil oligarchies will naturally see the robotics revolution as a way of further extending their control over their people, and will create a huge infrastructure of services for their male citizens, with guest workers and women continuing to be treated abominably badly. Overall, their stability will increase. Iran may be an exception, its theocratic rulers may get expansive and make another grab for Iraq and other neighbors.

Central and much of southern Africa will continue to be a basket case. South Africa may come out of it all right, hard to say.

South America and central America will also suffer badly, as the first instincts of many governments will be to let the poor die off. Places like Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador with a more socialist bent will probably do better than others, leading THEM to have illegal immigration problems that dwarf the present ones in the US.

The US will probably do badly, the oligarchs, conservative and libertarian elements fighting against the extension of the wealth engendered by the robotic revolution to everyone else. There will arise a strong progressive movement that will fight for universal benefits, but it will be tagged as socialist and likely resisted strongly even by the people who need it most. Unemployment, homelessness and possibly starvation will become much more commonplace.

Canada will do a LOT better than the US, more like the European socialist democracies.

There will arise a strong back to the land movement worldwide, as people seek out subsistence farming as a substitute for the jobs they had in manufacturing, etc., especially in Asia, triggering many land dispute and lots killing.

Most nations will have some form of censorship established over the Internet and social media, mostly aimed at controlling/preventing discussion about the tremendous wealth ineqaulity between the oligarchs who control the robotic factories and arms and everyone else. Things will get very 1984 for a while.

Eventually the oligarchs will be overthrown and replaced, but this may take more than 50 years. But not a lot more.

27

I see Iraq splitting into three countries.

28

Fuck that, I’m still waiting on them to make a film version of ‘atlas shrugged’ that isn’t so boring I won’t watch it for free, let alone pay for it.

29

There will be a robotics revolution that will drastically lower the number of workers needed to keep society going, but it will hit at the same time as society becomes gray. Something like 20-30% of people will be 60+ by the early middle of this century (at least in many countries, but not all). If done right, it could be a blessing in disguise. Economic productivity and robotics goes up right when we are awash in elderly who are unable to work and only consume economic proceeds.

However I don’t see mass starvation. Feeding someone takes less than a dollar a day, by the time the robotics revolution comes it will probably cost ten cents or less a day to provide enough calories to keep someone alive (we waste the vast majority of food grown today on either growing beef or industrial uses). People aren’t going to starve for lack of $3 a month. Even nowadays, when people do starve it is mostly due to political dysfunction or war more than poverty. If global starvation hit, farmers would stop using 80% of their corn on growing beef and industrial uses, and would use it to feed people instead.

I could see nation states nationalizing major industries if the robotics revolution creates so few jobs that the massed don’t have the money to buy the items that are being created by the robots. But I don’t see it being nearly as dystopian.

Also service sector work will be hit hard too.

30

China, China, China . . . I think India might surprise us yet. Not in aggression, but in economic performance.

31

There already is the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), and there’s a wider grouping called Asean+3 (Asean + Japan, South Korea and China) and even Asean+6 (those + India, Australia and New Zealand). And from 2016 – really the last day of 2015, but no one believes it will be on time; been delayed once already – there will be the Asean Economic Community (AEC), theoretically with completely open borders between all Southeast Asian nations. But no one believes this will really happen, at least not as envisioned, and there is so much animosity between some of the countries that I don’t see even an EU-type entity occurring here in the next 50 years.

32

Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have plans to form a single federated state, but I don’t think it’s as far along as they wanted it to be by now.

33

That’s exactly the sort of thing I was thinking of in my OP, actually. I’ll be interested to see how it pans out for them…

34

“Will be”? At least in Sub-Saharian Africa, it’s been going on for years.

35

Brazil will finally get its act together (upgrade transport/railroads, education, and assistance to its poverty stricken citizens). It will then decide that it doesn’t want to be an economic colony of China (exporting raw materials, importing finished goods). This will put pressure on China, as other world markets close to them.

36

Then what will Brazil do with its raw materials and where will it get its finished goods? Will Brazil industrialize?

37

Brazil did industrialize-in the period 1950-1975. However, its factories had high costs, and could not compete with the Chinese or Koreans. Take shoes-Brazil exported shoes until a few years ago-now they import Chinese made shoes.