I was looking at a map of the world from around the Vietnam War era the other day and it was full of countries (or more specifically, the colonies of other countries) which no longer exist or have splintered into several other countries.
However, when I looked at a map from the late 1990s, little seems to have changed - sure, Hong Kong and Macau are now part of China and East Timor is a country but otherwise the geopolitical map of the world in c.1999 looks a lot like the map of the world now.
Anyway, it got me wondering - I know there’s countless independence movements, people’s liberation fronts, calls for political change and the like all over the world. Some of them will gain enough traction to get what they want, or a major civil war or something will redraw the borders etc. Quite how that will all look is anyone’s guess though, hence my question: Over the next 50 years or so, what do you think are the likely big geopolitical changes?
Quite a few changes in the ex-Yugoslavian area since 1999. Not to mention the appearance of South Sudan.
But to answer your actual question - no frickin’ idea. I’m pretty sure whatever the next major change is, will be completely unexpected by just about everyone until it happens.
Recent big oil discoveries outside the Middle East will make Europe, N. America, Japan, free of dependence upon ME oil. That in turn will stop the fueling of the religious/cultural conflicts in the region. Basically, the world will ignore the ME and its conflicts.
I also suspect that cheap energy will be a major geopolitical player for the next 30 years. It will fuel the continuing rise of the standard of living of most nations in the world. Unfortunately, the good times will come to an end, but with an order(s?) of magnitude more science being researched than when I was born due to cheap data and larger educated world population, maybe we will be able to come up with a solution for continued economic expansion when cheap fossil energy comes to an end.
The next big geopolitical change is the dominance of China. I don’t know whether that will cause any redrawing of maps. It may well affect outcomes in areas that are already in flux, in cases where China exerts her influence. Historically, though, China has been willing to let us barbarians divvy things up as we want. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this in the future, as long as China gets what it wants as well (mostly resources, but also access to markets, for both products and services like big building projects).
The Chinese won’t care much about the political systems in other countries, as long as they’re ones that cooperate. I’d say “Unlike the US,” here, but the US is inconsistent in this regard. We tend to want to foster democracy everywhere, but um … except places where 'He’s a tyrant, but he’s OUR tyrant" e.g. Saudi Arabia. Still, there’s a big difference in this area between the US and China. Even when the US government official policy is neutral, the popular opinion is not. It remains to be seen whether anything like this happens in China.
Kissinger’s “On China” is an excellent read on the topic. I enjoyed his respect and admiration for the various virtues of various Chinese leaders, despite their deep philosophical differences.
Good point. I hope you’re wrong, but if you’re right, that’ll dwarf the impact of China’s emergence.
(In hoping you’re wrong, I’m not being skeptical of climate change science, only doubt about the possible results. The models are incredibly complicated and don’t explain all the phenomena. We might just luck out. That is just wishful thinking, though, and nothing to base plans on! I was really amused at my own state’s (NC’s) legislature making it illegal for communities to use scientific predictions on future water levels for public planning. They have to limit to historical trends. ARRGH!)
You’ll probably see some de facto independent countries - Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somaliland, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and maybe Kurdistan - being recognized as official countries.
China is already making waves by claiming, or intimating claims, on quite a number of their neighbor’s territories. I predict this will only grow worse as China ascends. Russia should be looking nervously at the entire Amur region.
There will be a resource grab by China…places like Siberia, Outer Mongolia, Sub-Saharan Africa. These places will be targeted for raw materials. Most of this extraction will be fully legal, but it won’t be liked by the people who live in these areas.
What will happen when Iranian crude oil production ends? their fields are now late in their productive life-when production takes a sharp nosedive, expect a major upheaval there.
I think Russia will be able to get some of its lost power back by tapping into its oil riches, but as a result it will move further away from its brief foray into democracy. It’ll start looking more and more like a Mid-Eat oil monarchy, I think
China seems like it will continue to democratize, albeit slowly. We Chinese have a long history and lots of patience. While I disagree with much of what their government is doing, I can’t say it hasn’t worked for the majority of its people
In the West, America will go bust and be split between Texas and Canada. In the East, something will cause a major conflict between China and India which will go nuclear.
There will be another Tunguska-like event.
Argentina will again seek to overcome internal troubles by invading the Falklands; this time the U.K. will not have the conventional forces to recover them so will make a limited nuclear strike on Argentina.