What Are The Odds? (Casino wins, or lightning strikes us 4 times)

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

I’ve just gotten back from a two week trip to the Dominican Republic.

While there, we hit the casinos four nights… I posted a gripe thread about the blackjack players in the Pit during this period.

I also mentioned somewhere after the first night that I won RD$7,000 – about US$ 240.

That was night #1, in which I started out with a 3,000 peso stake and quit when I hit 10,000 pesos. I played only blackjack, only basic strategy, with 200 peso bets on each hand.

Night #2: same terms. Started with 3,000; quit at 10,100. Profit: 7,100.

Night #3: same. Start 3,000, end 10,500, profit 7,500.

Night #4. same start. But this time, events caught up with me: I lost 2,500. My wife comes by to ask how I’m doing, I explain I’m almost busted dry. She borrows $20 US to go play slots while I finish up. (Slot machines there took quarters and paid in US funds; table games could be played for pesos or dollars).

So I leave the card table down 2,500, and I’m looking for my wife. I pass the craps table, and figure, “What the hell?” Put my lone RD$500 chip on the line.

Won.

“Let it ride!”

Won. Let it ride again. Won. Again. Won. I scoop up RD$8000 off the table and go to find my wife… who is sitting in front of a slot machine with a crowd of people gathered around, and the siren and light on top of the machine going off. She had hit a 1600 coin jackpot: US$ 400.

I have never in my life had such a run of successive wins. (In fairness, I’m sort of lumoing my wife’s last big win in with mine, and she did not win on earlier visits, but her losses each night were small, less than 1500 pesos each night). Still, there’s no question we paid for pretty much all our spending money during the trip with casino winnings, and I cannot get over how unlikely such a series of events is. I kept waiting to get home and find a tree through my roof, or something, just to even things out.

So far, so good.

But unbelievable!

2

Say, are you sure this place is honest?

3

“Honest? As honest as the day is long!”

Now, now. It wasn’t roulette and it wasn’t 22. :slight_smile:

4

You were blessed with a string of good luck, it happens, although rarely. The best thing to do now? Stay away from gambling as long as possible. :slight_smile:

5

This is pretty much the way to play my Aggressive Let It Ride strategy, which I have detailed on this board. I call it aggressive because I don’t just let it ride, but re-ante after each win. On a $10 table, you try to win four line bets in a row, adding another $10 after each win. You bring $300 to a session and play until that $300 has been depleted.

First bet is 10, and when that wins you add another 10, making the next bet 30. The sequence is as follows:

10 30 70 150

Once the fourth bet wins, you take the $300 off the table and put it in your pocket, continuing the strategy until your original $300 is exhausted. All you need is one winning series (four in a row) to break even, and then you are playing for $300 profit. (Or $600, or more.)

The odds of this? The Pass Line odds are precisely 976/1980, so to win the Pass Line four times in a row is exactly (976/1980)[sup]4[/sup], which comes out to about 5.9%. So you’re looking at basically a 6% chance to win as you did. Six percent isn’t the most unlikely bet to win, though it isn’t common, either. It is fairly close to the chance to roll a yo (eleven) on any given roll. (5.56%)

I highly recommend this strategy, as it has a reasonable chance to double your money, a good chance to break even, and it guarantees you longevity at the table regardless of your outcome.

6

Well, now I know where all the Doper luck was this last week! The wife and I got semi-worked in Vegas over New Year’s, for the first time in a number of trips. You stole all the luck, you bastich! :smiley:

7

Nice pickup on the reference, Senor Rick!

8

Nice string.

I’ve been working on one of my own at the poker tables. Been doing quite well since New Year’s. Cashed in the first multi I played, took 4th in the second, took 2nd in a STT and have been hitting at the cash tables too. Hasn’t quite made up for the beating I was taking for the couple weeks prior but it’s getting there.

And I probably just jinxed myself by talking about it.