What Are The Odds of Another UK General Election before 2022?

Simple question…have at it.

Expect it’s probable but not in the usual method of things.

Unsure of the British view but on the far side of the globe early elections called for political advantage usually attract a backlash, as seen in the UK. We expect governments to govern with whatever parliament we give them.

Having sort an increased majority and not got it due to ineptitude, were the Tories to call another early election because they can’t manage the mess they’ve created they’ll get turfed out resoundingly.

So they’ll hang in there as long as possible but I’d expect that if the Tories can’t get a functioning government out of their cobbled together coalition (probably odds on), then they’ll resign and vacate the Treasury benches for a Corbyn led coalition. Labour will find it’s a poisoned chalice and Corbyn will call a general election in about 3 years.

This fall. Theresa May will quickly learn that it’s no fun trying to cobble together enough votes for every measure she wants passed.
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At least 99.9999%, and there’s about a 90% there’s be another one before this year’s over. The UK doesn’t have a great track record with minority governments.

The odds are pretty good. IMHO.

The one good thing for the Tories in a second election is that this last one was Theresa May’s election, not theirs. The branding was all May, not Tories. A new leader is going to be easily able to separate himself or herself from her.

How soon will depend upon how long May lasts. A new Tory leader will want time to establish himself or herself.

Can’t really put a number on it, but I would be shocked if it didn’t happen. The tories are in a mess. I’ve heard talk about them renaming themselves “The Workers Party” or variations on that theme. They are slamming the breaks on, in an attempt to manage the damage they have already done themselves, but I can’t see it working.

If May goes, another election is inevitable, if she stays, they will continue hemorrhaging support. They are no longer a party, but a loose association of opportunistic individuals, slyly calculating how they can each personally benefit from this collective catastrophe.

It’s beautiful.

This isn’t really a question. A minority government during turbulent times isn’t ever going to survive 5 years without another election.

Eta: since there’s no indication the DUP is going to be a formal part of the government,this is definitely a minority government.

Plus, the DUP are pretty flakey, and they rather like bringing the house down about their ears on a point of principle. It makes them feel good about themselves. If you’re going to be a minority government, you’d rather be a minority government dependent on support from a party that isn’t the DUP.

Does the UK ever go 5 years between elections? Here in Canada it’s theoretically allowed but a government that goes beyond 4 years is seen as one that is stubbornly holding onto power. It’s seen as an incredibly desperate move by a PM who expects a drubbing from the electorate.

The 2010 Lib Dem/Tory coalition lasted the full 5 years, when the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed.

The 1987 Parliament, last one that Thatcher won, went until a couple months before expiring. Major had replaced Thatcher in 1990.

The 1992 John Major Tory Parliament also went 5 years. Major had awful problems during that parliament, with Tory rebels and it was fairly obvious, from about 1994 on. that as soon as he called an election, Labour would win.
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I wonder if they’ll try to cling on until the boundary changes take place in 2018…

Are the London bookmakers already accepting bets on the date of the new election?


Those are by no means certain, since it will require parliamentary approval of the final orders, and there are enough Tory MPs who would have to apply for a nomination all over again…

Oho! Does that mean then that if the House rejects those Orders, then the 650 constituencies all remain in situ? The Act is dead?

Plus the 2005-2010 Blair/Brown Labour.

High, but the DUP do seem quite adamant that they will do all they can to thwart any possibility of a Corbyn government. I suspect greater trouble will come from both wings of the Tory party.

I would hope the civil servants would have drafted the legislation in such a way as not to leave everyone stranded with 600 constituencies without any boundaries settled, but since it was David Cameron’s idea, who knows?

But seriously, I think it must follow that the new constituencies can’t apply until the whole process is complete. More likely, perhaps, there will be further inflation of the Lords and sundry policy concessions for the votes of the Tory MPs affected.

From what I’m hearing. I’m just going to round up to 100% for within a year, probably before the middle of January.

DUP and the Tories aren’t that good a fit, and as the Tories lose members to defection, the coalition will become completely nonviable.

ETA: Oh, it’s minority government. Teach me to talk. Well, still, probably going to fall apart anyway. As said above, enough Tories in Parliament are…out for themselves.

Defection? I very much doubt any Tory will defect. Death, however, will take its toll.