What Are The Odds of Another UK General Election before 2022?

Oh no it’s ok, see, Australians are mostly white, it’s totally fine.

News is that this will be a two-year session. Pretty obvious why - to avoid a battle over confidence at the next Queen’s speech.

No, those were their honestly held views.

Boggle. Double boggle. So you don’t believe in democracy? Or is democracy only fine when people agree with you.

It’s the EU way to keep voting until the right result is achieved. And that grates with a lot of people.

The truth was conspicuously absent from both sides.

But it wasn’t. And that sort of comment is just the sort of hyperbolic stipidity which helped the Leave side

Right or wrong, if either of the main parties took that position, they would be wiped out at the next election.

Rubbish. It’s quite possible to be a democrat but recognise that elections aren’t one-off sacred decisions. The people are fickle and temporary in their decisions - hence why we have regular elections. When the electorate are also seduced by lies and empty promises, it makes it all the more necessary to be said.

Good grief Quartz, you’ve fallen for that conspiracy theory have you? I find it hard to believe you ever voted Remain.

Utter tosh. Remain’s failure was in not sexing up facts to appeal in a positive way to people’s aspirations. Leave’s success was making up clever slogans. It’s mind-numbingly obvious in that, one year on, there’s not a single concrete reason for leaving that isn’t vapid hollowness and vague aims.

Disagree, really. If this had been about climate change, Remain would have had boring facts and Leave would have bleated scaremongering. And promised a return to smoke-stack factories and crisp, snowy winters.

Well, the present parties look likely to be once Brexit tears a whole into this country’s prosperity.

Actually, if you believe in democracy, they are. Until the next election or referendum.

The people voted and made their choice. If you do not respect that, if you think you can override that on YOUR whim, then you do not believe in democracy.

No conspiracy theory. It’s absolutely true. Ask Ireland about the Treaty of Lisbon, for instance, or the Treaty of Nice.

That is not what I found. Did you actually speak about the subject in person to anyone who voted to leave who wasn’t a campaigner?

  1. It was an advisory referendum.

  2. Sure, let’s go for another vote.

Bollocks. I recognise a decision was made, but it can be revisited - or even, if the facts do not square with what was promised, annulled.

Furthermore, we’re not talking about Leave winning decisively. They got 52%. If they got above 60%, it would be recognised as over for Remain. It’s why other countries have threshholds on votes to prevent stupid decisions being made on a whim. It should have been done last year.

Yeah, I’m quite acquainted with those episodes, and they didn’t happen the way you seem to think they happened.

I have. None have been able square the circle of what was promised and what’s deliverable. To prevent their heads exploding from the contradiction. they disengage into ‘Oh, I suppose it will be alright.’ All too human, but calamitous.

The Opposition doesn’t have to wait until a Queen’s Speech to trigger a confidence vote, did they? I thought the one after Parliament was mandatory, but otherwise the can be called at any time.

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Yes, they don’t have to wait. But the point is that certain matters - like the Budget and the Queen’s Speech - are automatically votes of confidence so a minority government, such as we have now, will want to minimise the number of such votes.

Indeed, although without the numbers in the bag, triggering one needlessly would only backfire.

DUP/Tory deal in doubt. It’s probably just political posturing on the part of the DUP, but it casts further doubt on this government’s ability to stay on for a long time.

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There is also going to be a legal challenge on the basis that a DUP/Tory agreement will violate the Good Friday agreement:

I’m not from the UK, and I don’t understand your politics. But the first idea I had against a new election would be that the Conservatives don’t want to lose even more support. This one backfired heavily, losing their majority.

Obviously, other concerns would balance this, and make it more likely it will happen. But does this play any role, at least, in the short term?

I know that, in the US, protecting your seat is generally considered a lot more important than making sure you can get things done.

Sure, the Conservatives do not want a new election. The party would lose and concede all power.

Individually, the PM is like a battleship with its engine shot through - the party keep her afloat because there is no alternative atm.

You can only assume if they lose power and an election is called, the PM will be forced to stand down and someone like David Davies would take over - at least for the duration of the campaign - in the knowledge things couldn’t get any worse.

It can’t be easy for Europe to negotiate with a bunch of clowns.

Why would a new election go even worse for them?

The idea that it violates the agreement seems tendentious to me. The Good Friday Agreement says that Northern Ireland is part of the UK until and unless the people of Northern Ireland vote to change that. How would that not protect the rights of MPs and parties from Northern Ireland to be involved in government if they wished? The idea that Northern Ireland parties must be excluded from governing the UK seems like it would itself be a violation.

Look at the polls:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-less-popular-election-2017-campaign-leader-conservative-labour-poll-yougov-a7792006.html

And the Tories have gotten more unfavorable reactions as a result of the Grenfell Tower disaster.

Because, following the last election, they trail a miasma of failure and despair wherever they go, and that tends to put voters off. Plus, if they were blamed this time for being responsible for an unnecessary election, think how much more they will be blamed if it is shortly followed by another election.

The Good Friday Agreement didn’t stop Brown trying to form an alliance with the DUP.