What are the odds that Lindsey Graham isn't being blackmailed?

Going by both Occam and Hanlon’s razors, I’d say he simply does espouse those positions, and he does, as many Republicans do, believe that Trump is (was) a powerful president who got done more items on the conservative agenda than they could have dreamed of.

Carrot? A vegetable? No way. KFC drumstick or maybe a hamberder and stick.

Almost certainly not being blackmailed. Considering there are like 7 Republicans that have ever criticized Trump I don’t think Graham is notable in his support.

It’s not the support that Graham gives that makes me wonder if he’s being blackmailed. It’s the immediacy, the blatantly nonsensical nature of that support, the ludicrous overstatements that he seems so eager to mouth on nationwide TV that make me think he’s much more than an eager MAGAt. If half the things he says would go unsaid, Trump would have no reason to think him less than a full-throated supporter and SC voters to think him a loyalty.

This is standard.

The other thing to remember about Graham (if it hasn’t already been mentioned) is that he was anti-Trump right up until John McCain died. John and Lindsey were (apparently) BFFs, and you could usually count on Graham to echo whatever talking points McCain was spewing. But as soon as McCain died, Graham did a complete 180 and went all in on Trump. Which was surprising to me, given the amount of trash-talking Trump did about McCain - both alive and dead.

It is true they were BFFs, but your timing is a little off. Graham and Trump made up in early 2017. Graham stood by mostly silently while Trump attacked McCain.

As to the OP, I don’t think Graham needed to be blackmailed. He is a politician’s politician. He flipped willingly because that was where the power lay.

When immediately after Jan. 6 he “expressed discomfort” over an actual attempt top overthrow the Republic, it got him jeered and insulted and harassed when he showed his face in SC. Lesson learned – your voter base is now Trump’s and doesn’t have your back.

Yep. There’s being wealthy and connected, and then there’s being a Senior U.S. F----ing Senator. The kind of wealth they can look forward in their lines of business or in retiree gigs is mighty sweet, but it’s never going to be anywhere in the I-have-my-own-spaceships league, and they know it, and they also know that once they are “Former Senator” So-and-so, if the person you are calling is on the line with an actual incumbent, they will not interrupt to take your call. So why end up living looking ankle high to Musk or Bezos in buiness, or being considered less powerful than Alexandria Ocasio Cortes, when you can die in the position of Senior U.S. F***ing Senator.

Exactly this. To the extent he’s being blackmailed it’s that he has to worry about being primaried from the right. He will do anything to stay in office.

Except that Graham has never struck me as being particularly stupid. Craven and feckless, sure, but not actually stupid.

Every mainstream Republican politician knows that they would have gotten every part of their agenda they wanted from any GOP President who had majorities in both the House and Senate. There’s nothing special about Trump that let them do the things they’ve wanted to do all along. So, yeah, they voted to support him, the same way they would have voted to support any GOP President.

It’s the fawning sycophantic, ass-kissing, say stupid shit to keep Trump happy business that doesn’t make sense. Liz Cheney has proven that it’s possible to support Trump’s entire legislative agenda, without having your lips locked on his butt cheeks. “He did what we wanted him to do” just doesn’t explain it.

Plus, McConnell, who is also a politician’s politician doesn’t say nearly as much fawning bullshit or put himself into actual legal jeopardy over his loyalty to Trump. And, Kentucky has as many MAGA true believers as SC.

Yeah, this. McConnell is the poster child of what I expected from GOP politicians after it became obvious that Trump would be the nominee, and after he actually won. There’s no value in opposing Trump (See Cheney, Liz, again for evidence), but quietly voting in favor of all the usual GOP agenda wouldn’t be a problem. Just ignore all the stupid shit Trump says, and don’t engage in public discussions of the Trump Circus, and Trump won’t even notice you. No reason at all to go out of your way to kiss his ass.

Yet, even flying under the radar, McConnell faces the wrath of Trump who is actively pressuring Republicans in the Senate to replace him as leader. If the two are still alive in four years, Trump will, no doubt, throw his support behind a McConnell primary challenger. I think Graham is just a bigger coward than McConnell.

Well, that’s the problem with being in charge, you do get noticed more. But that’s only a problem for one of them, and even then, the level of wrath that McConnell is facing is orders of magnitude less than what Cheney had to deal with.

“I supported president Trump at every opportunity” is an easy line to say, especially if you’ve got the voting record to prove it, and only the most rabid MAGAts would have a problem with it. There’s no need to go beyond that, by doing things like trying to explain away the “drink bleach” suggestion, or ranting about stolen elections.

True but not the whole story. I’ll try to zoom out a bit for the larger picture as I see it.

But what Trump did that was uniquely Trump was deliver a LOT of extra voters to the R column in 2016. Who voted to deliver more senators & reps than a more tepid 2016 R candidate would have. Had the Rs won in 2016 with e.g. Cruz as the nominee, Prez Cruz may well have faced a divided congress. And gotten far less of the RW agenda passed. An agenda that you rightly point out long predates Trump’s rise. Trump also generated a lot more R voters in 2020. Although he himself did not win, he created a much worse congressional situation for Biden than would have a more typical R candidate who also lost.


The other (and IMO far, far more important) thing Trump did is move the Overton window a long way to the right. A lot farther than a Prez Jeb! or even Cruz would have done even with two terms from 2016 to 2024. As a result, we don’t now have a supreme court packed with republicans, we have one packed with frothing reactionaries.

In that and in many other areas of public policy it will take decades for the left to pull the Overton window back to where it was in 2014 just before Trump poked his nose in. That difference between Trump and the other plausible R candidates is a gigantic gift that will keep on giving for a generation or four of RW politicians. Assuming it doesn’t blow up the country altogether along the way.

Because Trump himself is policy-free, the only way for any politician to say “I want more of what Trump does for the Rs” is to say “I want more of Trump himself for myself!” That way lies Graham-like ass-kissing.

Maybe Graham is owned by Russia because of the millions funneled in from the oligarchs like Cruz, Rubio and DeSantis. They were bought off - follow Putin’s Puppet or money is cut off.

Trump had nothing to do with who ended up on the supreme court. All all of his choices were selected by McConnell. No matter which GOP president we had we would have ended up with the same court.

Thank you. Mostly good point.

How much Trump just shrugged his shoulders & signed the papers versus some other plausible R Prez who might not have bought the entire Federalist Society roster without any tweaking is an interesting question.

On the one hand, almost every elected Republican has sworn fealty to the Federalist Society. On the other hand, George W. Bush did try to put two of his personal friends on the court (Harriet and Alberto) instead of Federalist Society-approved candidates. So, there is some room for surprise.

Alberto? I don’t recall Dubya nominating anyone by that name.