What city most likely to get NFL team?

In My Humble Opinion
1

What NFL teams are most likely to move to a new city, and where? The reason I ask is because I’m playing a career league in a computer game (FPS Football Pro '98) and I’ll be starting the 2004 season soon, and I’m thinking some team will change cities by then. Plus, I think it’s an interesting question.

What teams are the most likely to move? I think I recall hearing about the Chargers and the Cardinals both threatening to move to L.A., but other than that, I don’t know.

L.A. is the largest market without a team so it seems like the most likely place to move to, but they’ve already twice demonstrated they can’t keep a team there. Would they really get the next NFL franchise? Where else might a team go? Las Vegas, maybe? How about Canada? I know the CFL isn’t doing too well, but could Vancouver or Toronto support a team?

Anyway, as far as my computer game goes, it was written for the '98 season so there’s no Cleveland (or Houston, for that matter). Maybe I should put a team in one of those cities. The only limit to the game is no expansion teams, because the number of teams is fixed (at 30). Other than that, I can move any team anywhere in the world. (If a city isn’t already in the game, I can add it.)

2

Realistically, the city that gets the team is the city that puts together the best package for it. That’s how we here in st. Louis lost out on the Jacksonville-Charlotte expansion (and then we turned around and outbid everyone else to get the Rams when they were looking to leave LA.)

I’m assuming your game doesn’t have variables for luxury boxes and season ticket presales, so none of that matters.

I don’t think the NFL wants the Cardinals to move to LA, and I rather doubt they want the Chargers to move there, either. They’d rather drop in an expansion team with an all new owner (and stadium). The league really couldn’t stop either team from moving, but they could sure make life miserable for them. But there’s nothing to stop you from putting one of your teams there.

Next on the list I’d put San Antonio, and then possibly Orlando (but I’ll bet both Tampa Bay and Miami would try to block it) or Columbus (ditto with Cleveland and Cincinnati).

3

The odd thing is, the most logical city may NOT be the next city to get an NFL franchise. You see, the NFL desperately wants a team in Los Angeles, but…

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that you’re Red McCombs, owner of the Minnesota Vikings. You’re not making big money in Minnesota, largely because you’re stuck with an unfavorable contract at your current stadium, your current stadium doesn’t have enough luxury boxes, and your municipality isn’t offering you many incentives. You’d like to move the team to another city that would build you a new stadium, free of charge, and give you a sweetheart deal.

No question, the NFL would LOVE for you to move the team to L.A., but… do you think the citizens of L.A. are eager to shell out half a billion in tax tollars to build a new football stadium? Guess again! At best, L.A. might be willing to spend a pittance to polish up the old Coliseum.

So, what kind of city MIGHT be eager to shower you with money? Quite possibly, a small-to-middling city with an image problem, a city that’s just DESPERATE to be seen as “big time.” Nashville was such a city, and it gave Bud Adams the sun and the moon to move the Oilers there.

It strikes me that another smallish Sun Belt city is more likely to offer McCombs the kind of money and incentives he wants than L.A. is. The kind of city in which a handful of Chamber of Commerce big shots can push the local government to do its bidding.

So, IF there is any franchise relocation, I see a city like Memphis, Mobile, Louisville, or even Las Vegas getting the franchise. NOT because they’re worthy, but because they’re far more likely than L.A. to offer an owner a bribe he can’t refuse. (It’s pretty clear that the NFL needs Los ANgeles a lot more than Los Angeles needs the NFL).

4

Neither Vancouver nor Toronto have a suitable stadium for the NFL. Vancouver didn’t even sell out the ~50,000 seat BC Place Stadium when the Seahawks played the 49ers(I think) in an exhibition game a couple of years ago. Vancouverites also have a bitter taste in our mouths from the treatment we got from the NBA with the Grizzlies, so we would tend to distrust any attention from the NFL. The NFL won’t come to Vancouver for a long time (if ever).

I know Ted Rogers (owner of Rogers Cable and the Blue Jays) desperately wants an NFL team in Toronto, but it would take a major upgrade of Skydome to have the number of seats required. I don’t see that happening either.

5

I know that here in Detroit we hope to one day have a real NFL Team

6

My Gut says that the next NFL expansion franchise will end up out west somewhere.

I don’t think there are any cities with the proper location, money and fan base to host another team east of the Mississippi. All the Midwest cities that really can support a team have one (with the exception of Columbus which has the Buckeyes). They are almost perfectly scattered across the rust belt from Minnesota to Philidelphia.

New Orleans and Atlanta aren’t exactly thriving in the south where college ball is king. Florida and Texas are at critical mass. I don’t care what anyone says, Houston blew it with the Oilers and shouldn’t get the Texans (as far as the fans and city are concerned, money’s a different story) Dallas won’t keep its seats filled unless the Cowboys are contenders again which could be a while off. No way Austin or San Antonio get a team.

The only cities in this region with a chance are Memphis and Louisville, but with the position of Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Nashville the fan bases would be too diluted.

Out west the only real canidates are LA, Las Vegas and Portland. LA is the leagues obvious choice, and expansion is the only way they’ll get a team. They won’t lure a existing team there. Paul Allen might leverage a team into Portland and it would probably succeed. It’d only have Basketball to compete with, but I don’t really know what the corporate lanscape or fan interest would be out there. On paper it seems like a solid option. Las Vegas is to me the most likely, but I’ve heard phrases that the only football fans in Vegas are those who are fans of Sports Books. The drive to keep football and gambling a seperated as possible might make the league veto any move there. The popularity of football with gamblers and the weather in Vegas being perfect for a fall sport hint to me that it’d be a perfect fit in Vegas in theory.

If I were playing your game I’d say Vegas. If I had to bet on what really will happen, I’d say LA. But I think its all moot, I think the NFL will learn from Hockey and Baseball that over-expansion can kill a sport and it will be many many years before they even talk about more expansion. As it is they probably shouldn’t have added Houston, and wouldn’t have added Cleveland (or Baltimore) if Modell hadn’t done his thing.

Minnesota or New Orleans might move sometime in the next decade, but I doubt in the next 4 years. All in all, I bet the NFL stays pretty static for quite some time now.

7

You have to look at the bright side of things: They’re the only team in the league with a perfect record, and they’re going for the first draft pick behind the Houston expansion team. :slight_smile:

(If it’s any consolation, in my computer game Detroit went 12-4 and won the Superbowl in '01.)

8

I’m not certain the NFL would much care. The NFL makes its money on television, not ticket sales. A team in Canada would offer the chance to sell national rights to a Canadian network for a very substantial sum of money - it would be like getting all the viewers in the states of New York and Massachusetts combined all over again. However, it won’t happen until the CFL dies, which, it appears, will not happen anytime soon. The NFL has a very long-standing policy of cooperation with the CFL.

9

Okay, but what’s the deal with calling the Houston team the Texans? Would an L.A. team be called the Los Angeles Californians?

10

Philo- I suspect that Mr. Lanier, the owener of the new Houston franchise, has hopes of winning over fans in the entire state of Texas. He knows that Jerry Jones is alienating Cowboy fans, and that disaffected Cowboy fans may be ready to embrace a different Texas team.

By calling his team “the Texans” (a bad omen- there have already been two extremely unsuccessful teams by that name*), Lanier hopes to win over fans in San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, Odessa, etc. Up to now, those fans have been Cowboys fans, pretty much by default.

Moreover, the new TExans logo resembles the Longhorn logo of the University of Texas. Again, it strikes me that Lanier is trying to win over the large U.T. alumni base to his franchise.

  • There was a Dallas TExans team that folded in the late 1940s, then moved to Baltimore and became the COlts. A later AFL Dallas TExans team was forced to move to KC, and became the CHiefs.
11

I don’t think the NFL is going to expand for a long long time. If anything, I think the trend is going to be contraction, as seen by whispers in baseball over terminating Montreal and one other team. This makes it really hard for LA to get a team. Nonetheless, Los Angeles is such a huge market, that you would think eventually some suburb of LA would buck up and try and bring in a team.

The most likely candidates for transfer are small market teams in old stadiums with no new ones being built. These teams would be, if I recall, and correct me if I’m wrong, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota and New Orleans. Detroit also has been playing in that Silverdome forever. Atlanta is notorious for not supporting it’s football team. But my vote is for New Orleans moving to LA. Theres some bad blood between the team not being able to sell naming rights and the city.

Never discount Al Davis moving the Raiders back either.

If not the Los Angeles Saints, I think Memphis is aggressively entering the major leagues.

12

RickJay, I remember when Rogers bought the Jays, I read an article that said he wants to rip the hotel out of Skydome and add seats to attract an NFL team.

I don’t know about this. IIRC, Rogers owns TSN and Sportsnet. Who’s going to bid against him for the rights? the CBC? Not likely.

13

Baltimore, of course! Hey, when dealing with “the powers that be” in the NFL, we definitely need a back-up team! :wink:

  • Jinx