Which players, who were on NFL rosters this weekend, are destined to be enshrined in the Hall:
I’ll start us off:
Tom Brady
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Rodgers
Larry Fitzgerald
JJ Watt
Vonn Miller
I think Gronk only makes it if he has a couple more dominant years and stays healthy. And I’m a Pats fan.
I’d guess:
Eli Manning
Roethlesberger
Troy Polomalu (wow, the Steelers have some difficult guys to spell)
Drew Brees
Richard Sherman
Next maybes:
Marshawn Lynch
Phillip Rivers
NFL Approximate Value Active Leaders from Pro Football Reference. Should help in predicting who goes next. Though it doesn’t do well for O-lineman, IMHO.
W/o referring to it, my additions off the top of my head were:
Darrelle Revis
Joe Thomas
Drew Brees
Adrian Peterson
I’m a Dolphins fan, so I have no special love for Gronk. My thought was mainly based on the dominance when healthy at a position that isn’t replete with superstars (unlike, say, WR or RB).
Funny enough, I found myself thinking about Eli the same thing you said about Gronk…I’m not sure if the 2 rings are enough, given that he’s had some mediocre seasons.
I agree with all of the rest, except Polomalu is retired, I believe.
I think Marshawn gets in if he has a 2nd life with Oakland (based on yesterday, that appears likely). And Philip will end up with a ton of gaudy stats before he’s done, so I agree there, too.
Although, the AV leader list did spit out Jahri Evans pretty high. He, along with Joe Thomas, are the only two four-time 1st Team All Pro O-linemen who are active.
I’m curious what Hamlet, as our resident Green Bay guru, thinks about Evans as a HoF contender.
Probably jumping the gun on these two.
Watt’s had 4 monster seasons, after a very good rookie season in 2011, and a 2016 season in which he played only 3 games due to injury. If he rebounds from injury, and has another few excellent-to-great seasons, I think he has a very strong case. Part of his strength is his all-out play and athleticism, and that’s what a bad injury can easily take away from a player. Right now, he’d be in the Gale Sayers / Terrell Davis “shooting star” category, and I don’t think he’d by any means be a lock for Canton.
Von Miller (note: one “n”) is in a similar camp, though he hasn’t has quite the same injury issues as Watt (he did tear an ACL, but rebounded from it, and missed time in 2013 due to a suspension). He, too, needs another few strong years to be in the HoF conversation.
I, too, think that Gronk is a questionable one. He’d need a few more productive years, and given his injury history, I’m not sure that that’s likely.
Eli doesn’t belong in the same zip code as the HOF.
Exactly. Those two rings are nice, but wow, the Giants and Eli have had a lot of mediocre seasons. No one seriously believes the Giants got to those Super Bowls because of Eli Manning, Kurt Warner had weak seasons too, but he was a huge factor in his teams’ Super Bowl appearances.
I’ll accept the admonishments on Miller and Watt, but I think Gronk has passed the threshold, given his participation in the dynastic Pats (including the Super Bowl).
To add another player to the list:
Jason Witten
Here’s Gronkowski’s Pro Football Reference page:
Five very good to outstanding seasons ('10, '11, '12, '14, '15), and two injury shortened seasons ('13, '16). If he were to retire today, I’m just not sure that he’s been good enough, for long enough. And, thus, I’m not sure he fits the “destined for the Hall” criterion.
The point about being a key player in the Patriots’ dynasty is an interesting one. Belichick has done an amazing job of using role-players, and continuing to win with an ever-changing cast of players. Most dynasties (e.g., Lombardi’s Packers, Noll’s Steelers) tend to place a lot of players into the HoF, but other than Brady, and maybe a few defensive players, it hasn’t been a team of stars.
Witten has a much better case – he’s been reliable and consistent for a very long time. On the other hand, he’s also played in an era with several other outstanding tight ends (Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates), and it’ll be interesting to see how the Hall voters approach that.
C’mon. The guy has a career passer rating of 83.7, which is in the rarefied air of your Mark Brunells, Mark Bulgers, and Joe Flacco’s of the NFL.
Plus, he’s absolutely clutch in the playoffs. Well, except 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2016. If you ignore those seasons, he’s really clutch in the playoffs.
And he has 10 seasons of being in the top 10 of NFL QB’s. Sure that’s in interception totals, but c’mon. It’s top 10 for 10 years.
Witten is now the all-time reception yardage leader in Cowboys’ history. I bet he gets in.
And, since you mentioned him, let me add:
Antonio Gates
Also, how about James Harrison of the Steelers?
I think Earl Thomas is a good candidate. He has good numbers, is considered a good teammate, and he’s generally popular. (Those all matter, just ask Terrell Owens.) He’s still young-ish, but if he can continue his success for a while I think he should be an easy pick. He’s just dominated that safety position for years and the league doesn’t get game-changing “star” safeties that often.
I’d also add Larry Fitzgerald to that list. A fantastic person and a great receiver with an impressive resume. His 2015 season was unreal. I’d love to see him in the Hall of Fame someday.
I was working on a post earlier, which got eaten when my browser crashed.
Looking at that list of the top current players by AV, it’s amusing to see Jay Cutler tied for 20th; I don’t think that anyone sees him as anything close to Hall-worthy. (Carson Palmer is at #8, and I think he belongs in the “Hall of Very Good.”) Having a long, reasonably productive career, as those two have, isn’t a substitute for being one of the best in the game.
A few noteworthy members in the top 20 on that list, two of whom haven’t been mentioned yet:
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Julius Peppers was a fearsome pass rusher when he was younger, and has remained good at it for a long while. While I seem to remember criticism for him not being as strong against the run (which I may well be mis-remembering), I suspect he’ll get consideration.
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Frank Gore has rarely been in the conversation for “best RB in the league,” but at a position that has a notoriously short career span, he’s been incredibly consistent for over a decade.
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Joe Thomas. Poor Joe – his team sucks, sucks, sucks, but he never misses a down. He hasn’t seen a winning season since his rookie year, has never been to the playoffs, but he’s a 6-time All-Pro, and has gone to the Pro Bowl every season he’s played. I’m no expert on offensive linemen, but it seems like he gets a great deal of respect from football insiders, so I imagine he’ll get serious consideratin.
I’m a diehard NY Gint fan, thru thick and thin. I agree with these statements.
Oh, I’d have him as a shoo-in. 9 Pro Bowls, 3 All Pro first team, 5th in history in sacks. I think it’d be a travesty if he doesn’t get in eventually. Maybe not first ballot, but definitely in.
Put him in the Hall of Very Good. He had one amazing season, and a lot of good ones. But he never led the league in rushing (he was 3rd behind Larry Johnson and Ladanian Tomlinson in his best year). While his career numbers are impressive (8th in yards off all time), he never struck me ever as the best RB in the NFL.
He’s, to me, another shoo-in. Best in the league for a few years, and damn good the rest of them.
My thoughts on players already listed - bold for those I think qualify:
Tom Brady: duh
Rob Gronkowski: If his career ended today, I don’t think he’d make it. He can certainly make it but needs some more healthy, dominating seasons.
Aaron Rodgers: yup
Larry Fitzgerald: yup
JJ Watt: I’ll say yes, even if he were to never play another down he probably makes it
Von Miller: Like Gronk, he’ll make it if he keeps up what he’s doing, but I’m not sure if he makes it if his career was to end tomorrow.
Eli Manning: No way. The only possible argument is his two rings. That’s not enough (unless you’ll put in Jim Plunkett)
Ben Roethlisberger: Might need at least one more good year, but I think he makes it.
Troy Polamalu: I think he makes it.
Drew Brees: Definitely.
Richard Sherman: In the Gronk/Von Miller category of “needs a few more years at top of his game.”
Marshawn Lynch: I think he has an outside shot, but he’ll need to have a very good year or two with the Raiders
Phillip Rivers: I like him more than Eli, but I don’t like his chances unless he goes on another deep playoff run or two. Only even made the conference championship game once.
Darrelle Revis: I don’t think so, only had a couple of dominant years.
Joe Thomas: I think he’s a lock.
Adrian Peterson: I think he does, but I wonder about the effect of the whole child abuse thing.
Jason Witten: Lock.
Antonio Gates: Less of a lock than Witten, but makes it.
James Harrison: I think he gets in.
Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers will all finish Top 10 all time in both passing yards and touchdowns. They’ll all definitely make the H.O.F., and 2004 will go down as a better QB year than '83. Ben & Philip are right there in Passer Rating too, with Eli way behind.
And Gates absolutely goes in with Rivers. #1 all-time in Tight End TDs, 6th among all receivers. He’s FORTY SEVEN touchdowns ahead of Jason Witten, - though Witten has more yards, and will get in the H.O.F. too.
Whoa! Slow down! All 3 of those QBs aren’t close to Hall of Famers yet. NFL football has changed drastically over the years. Gates and Witten have been stud TEs for a long period of time and I’m happy with both of them entering. But, QBs from the past ten years are going to need a lot of scrutiny. Right now, none of those are sure fire HOFs
I don’t necessarily disagree with you on Gore. Thank you for articulating better what I was trying to put out there, and helping me to crystallize my thinking on him.
I think that the fact that most teams now go with “running backs by committee,” the de-emphasis on the running game overall, and the lack of running backs with long, exceptional careers in this era, will all make it harder for Hall voters to figure out which running backs are deserving of the Hall.
I think that Adrian Peterson is likely to make it in, even with the child-abuse suspension. Four-time All-Pro, led the league in rushing three times, and the 2000-yard season in '12, all make his case.
Beyond him, I don’t think that there’s any other RB currently active who has a real shot. Looking at that top AV list – beyond Peterson and Gore, the only other running backs on the list are Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch. I don’t think that any of them have the record of sustained excellence that I’d expect for a Hall enshrinee.