So we knew early on that the feds had the allleged 20th hijacker in custody a couple weeks before 9/11. Very recently we learned that they worked very hard at figuring out what he was up to, and that one agent even mentioned in a pre-9/11 memo speculation that he could have planned to hijack an airliner and crash it into the World Trade Center.
In the last week or so, we heard that the FBI had actually sent out agents to check out reports of strange Middle Eastern men at flight schools. The flight instructors were worried enough about a couple of these guys to report them, but the feds decided they were not any threat.
Today we learned that, shortly before 9/11, the threat of al Qaeda hijackings became serious enough that the President was briefed, and “U.S. agencies were put on alert about the intelligence suggesting possible hijackings.” I’m guessing that nobody passed the warning on to the folks working the ticket counters and security checks at the airports, since nineteen Arab hijackers managed to buy one-way tickets under their real names, paying with cash and checking no luggage, then board the planes while carrying deadly weapons–all without raising anybody’s suspicions.
I am not suggesting that the White House, FBI, or anybody else in the executive branch had knowledge of what was going on, but I am vaguely troubled at the appearance that they’ve been hiding something for the last eight months. Why have they hidden this information for so long? What should they have done, based on all this information? And in general, what did they know and when did they know it?
Some of the information should be withheld because of the trial of the 20th hijacker. However, with Ashcroft doing the investigation we will probably be told nothing. It will have to leak out, like it is now. :mad:
I’m guessing that a lot of warnings / suspicions find their way to the feds, as there are a lot of people who would like to hurt America. Before Sept. 11th, I imagine the general plan was to sort the real threats from the outlandish ones, and to stop the real ones. This time, whether the cause is plain stupidity or just bad luck, the attack wasn’t stopped.
It does seem that this danger was taken seriously (or is it standard practice to brief the President on every danger?), but it seems a little odd that basic protections weren’t put into place. For people under suspicion of planning to hijack a plane to then go on and board one is incredible.
However, I don’t think warning the public before the attack would have achieved anything. Can you imagine what would happen if the government said that they think planes are going to be hijacked and crashed into the WTC?
And after the attack… well, I guess it’s not suprising that the government would be reluctant to admit that they had their suspicions, so I don’t think it’s strange that it has taken 8 months to get out. I think they did the only thing they could be expected to do.
This would explain why GWB didn’t look so surprised at that school the morning of 9-11, which is something I’ve always wondered about, and why his advisor only whispered in his ear for about three seconds before he addressed the nation.
What freaks me out is that, in the light of warnings such as these, airport security was still so damned lax. I flew around the US in July of last year, and (as a European) was gobsmacked at how little stringency there was.
And since OBL had attacked the WTC before, I find it very hard to believe that nobody seriously considered the possibility that he would crash the hijacked planes there.
I was against it before since it would inevitably lead to partisan grandstanding at the expense of murdered Americans, but now I think a Congressional investigation is needed.
Until I see more details as to what this ‘briefing’ that Bush received regarding the threat entailed, I’m not going to get too worked up about it.
My general impression of the information as it stands now is that Bush received a ‘general warning’ about the ‘potential’ for hijacking during a ‘routine’ intelligence briefing, and that the ‘appropriate agencies’ were informed of the ‘general’ threat. In other words, I see no reason to believe that this briefing was hardly an extraordinary event. Just a blip on the intelligence radar that, like in the case of Roosevelt and the attack on Pearl Harbor, when viewed with a 20/20 knowledge of the future gains an importance that it does not necessarily deserve.
As I see it, there are threats quite often, most of them are deemed “not credible”. Yet the Arizona Agent who sent a memo to the pentagon about a possible threat of a airplane hijacking was also deemed “not credible”. Apparently they are looking into who got the memo and why nothing was done about it. To meit is a mute point…
I am sure there are some very serious reprocussions happening right now as to who got the memo and why nothing was done about it. To me, if Bush knew about it, it was certainly 4th hand at best…I do not think he is warned about every threat they recieve, simply because of the pure volume of threats that come in…
Also one thing that needs to be discussed is the vigilance factor here in the United States. We are renown for getting all worked up and then letting it blow over. It only takes one dedicated group to ‘sleep’ for a while and then strike. Lets hope it is not at a great loss of life.
When Security professionals and international watchdogs appear on cnn, bbc etc…etc… they all agree that it is just a matter of time before something happens again… In my opinion the worse case scenerio would be nuclear. And I do believe our nuke facilities are hyper-vigilant now and will continue to be well into our futures…
I have friends in the active intelligence fields and they say that the American public will never know the pure volume of threats that occur, or the many attacks that are thwarted. Its like the “…need to know…” basis thing…The public does not need to know that we are constently getting threats…what we do need to know is that when we watch the morning news and hear that the threat is HIGH that there is a credible threat somewhere and we do need to be extra vigilant…
Obviously, one thing OBL has taught us is that we are not immune to attack–but one thing he was not expecting was the massive retalitory effect the WTC would entice. What people see on TV of the bombings in Afghanistan and surrounding mountains is by far only a fraction of the devistation wrought upon the terrorists camps out there… I would venture to say attacks on American soil in the future will be few and far between, but I would also say the public needs to stay quite vigliant…
Although I can’t really say much on the validity of these findings, I can say that one advantage of an early warning is that it might have spurred more passengers to resist hijacking.
Standard hijacking protocal was to appease hijackers, not oppose. Even if we knew of a threat of hijackers, the idea of suicide flights was just one of many thrown around a table of people trying to figure out what the next big thing would be. No one knew what or when; they had bits and pieces but the puzzle was still far from complete when OBL’s henchmen actec.
First, as a nation attacked, the United States has a duty to protect its information sources, that it may better protect itself. We didn’t come out and say, “yeah, we knew something was up, but couldn’t track it down in time,” because that sort of a disclosure has the potential to telegraph to your enemy how we knew such things. Now that we have a number of al-Qaeda folks in our custody, we can be a little more free with our information, because whatever we’ve learned can be attributed to our guests, at least one of whom is slowly recovering from a painful injury to the groin, the poor lad… The point is, those older information sources have now given way to new, and presumably better, sources. Part of what we’re doing here is we’re telling al-Q that we’re deeper into their shit than we were before.
Second, and much more importantly, this sort of thing always happens. There is always a memo out there that correctly guesses–at least in part–what’s going to happen. Unfortunately, it is always accompanied by plenty of contraindicative information as well. Classic examples include German predictions of an invasion at Normandy, Major Brian Urquhart’s correct deduction that two SS Panzer divisions were relocated to Arnhem just prior to Operation Market-Garden, and the large body of evidence that, in retrospect, could have been interpreted to indicate a Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor, just to name a few from World War II.
One simply cannot know with certitude what information to act upon, and the 20-20 hindsight witch-hunt which often accompanies fiascos such as 9/11 is rarely productive. With more and better information, we can have a higher rate of success, but it is still uncertain and not guaranteed.
What makes you say that? While OBL earns my award of “Asshole of the century”, he’s certainly not stupid. I assure you he was resaonably confident that the US would retaliate.
Does the possibility of 20 suicidal terrosists hijacking four planes simultaneously for use as missiles sound credible? I would have found it more believable that they were conspiring to smuggle a dirty nuke into New York. Who’s paying attention to that possibility? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It allows us to assign blame other than where it rightfully belongs. These Congressional hearings are just another fishing expedition. Let’s say for a moment that the President received a very specific briefing that Al-Qaeda terrorists were in the country intent on using airliners to attack major population centers in the next six months. What should the President have done next? Issue a warning that no one would pay attention to? Remove all Arabs from flight schools? Prevent Arabs from getting on planes? We’re not allowed to engage in profiling, by the way. Or how about what did happen - letting law enforcement agencies do their job and produce some information that could be acted upon. If the President had gotten on national television and outlined the 9/11 scenario with vague and nusubstantiated information, we all would have thought he was pretty foolish to believe such an outlandish idea, wouldn’t we?
Remember, the 9/11 terrorists were here with our consent. They boarded those planes legally with items approved for transport in the passenger cabin. Even afterward, when the country was supposedly in a high state of alert, at least one terrorist managed to smuggle explosives onto a plane. No amount of warnings or preparation can prevent a determined group of individuals from causing destruction. People may think airport security has improved, but it is not substantially different from nine months ago. It’s becoming more lax as the memories of 9/11 fade. Military personnel are being withdrawn and the ticket agents barely glance up from their consoles when asking those “tough” questions.
When you hear warnings on the news about credible threats on bridges, shopping malls, or nuclear power plants, how many of us brush them aside, even after 9/11? Do you think you would you have been more or less likely to brush those warnings aside before the attacks?
Law enforcement agencies receive hundreds of threats a week. Their successes are barely noted in the press and hardly remember by the public. Remember Rassam in 1999? They can’t investigate every threat, but it appears that this one was under investigation. From all acounts, they were exercising due dilligence. This is all old news. If you have been reading the papers closely in the months after the attacks you would have known that the FBI was on to something. It’s only logical to conclude that somewhere along the line, the President was briefed on their actvities. I’m impressed that the FBI knew anything at all about the plot since the terrorists made very few mistakes in their preparation. Would it make you feel better if the government had had no idea at all?
What makes you say that? While OBL earns my award of “Asshole of the century”, he’s certainly not stupid. I assure you he was resaonably confident that the US would retaliate.
I’m in the camp that says that, prior to 9/11, the idea of suicidal hijackers plowing jet planes into buildings was dismissed as “highly improbable.” The conventional wisdom would be for hijackers to take over a plane, force it to land somewhere, then make demands while threatening to kill the hostages.
Unless there was some solid, credible evidence before 9/11 that suicidal hijackers were ready to plow planes into buildings, I don’t buy into any conspiracy theories. Though I agree with kniz that this Administration is going to resist all efforts to bring the details into the light.
Well Logically OBL would have thought we would retaliate, thats fine I agree. But I do think that he was prepared for us to bomb the piss out of his stomping ground and trounce the only dictatorship allowing him and his cronies to set-up camp and practice terrorist scenerios…
If he was prepared for that than it seems to me to be irretrevably stupid. Why would he want valuable assylum and camps crushed by our military? He loses valuable training grounds and resources to prove that he can get to the united states? Smart as he may be, He underestimated our stance and retaliation capabilities. He was hoping for all out jihad and that is not what he got… Most likely he has a sense of failure deep down in side of him that will eventually be his demise. He thought all of the arad world was going to back him and the terrorists of the world would rise up and attack…sorry they all saw our planes pummeling the shit out of the mountains and country side, quite quickly I might add… …Its nice to have muscle when its needed
I am watching Rice’s briefing on this subject right now on CNN. I don’t think this is really news. There was nothing that the administration could/should have done with the limited amount of information that they had on this. Especially in the pre-911 environment.
I also believe that there was another warning, a test to see if someone far from base would commit suicide. It worked.
This still does not add up to any conspiracy. Maybe the lesson to be learned is to look at different events and try harder to come up with how they fit together.
My suspiscion is that he thought that America would either:
A) Throw missles at his camps. Same as was done in retaliation for his other acts of terrorism during the 90’s. In other words, empty gestures.
B) Enter the war and end up in the exact same boat as the Soviet Union ended up in during their little escapade in Afgan. In other words, an extremely drawn out quagmire of a war against the Taliban and Al-Queda, with little or no results to speak of.
OBL is certainly not stupid, but even intelligent men can convince themselves of their own propaganda. I refer you to the tape that was made where he convinces himself (with a little help from his toadies) that the WTC attacks will result in a massive number of conversions to Islam in the northern european nations.
From the limited data coming out, the only thing I can think of would have been some sort of alert to the airlines. I suspect, had some one said “there’s been some rumors about hijackers planning some action in the US” then perhaps ticket agents in Boston might have done something different when several people bought one way tickets in cash w/ no luggage for a cross country trip**.
(**I recall that some of them had been paid in cash, and were one way, if neither of these items are true, then I agree there wasn’t anything to be done)