All the threads here seem to focus on Obama attracting Clinton supporters, etc. But as a moderate this to me doesn’t seem to be the real issue.
Now perhaps my hypothesis is incorrect here, but in my opinion those on the left will eventually line up behind Obama (or not vote at all), and those on the right will line up with McCain (or again not vote at all). It doesn’t strike me as likely that a Clinton supporter will be voting for McCain or someone from the religious right voting for Obama. They may not be 100% behind their party choice, but they really have limited options right?
So if that hypothesis is accepted (at least for the purposes of this question)–what do Obama and McCain need to do to attract the middle. Those on the left and right see huge policy differences between McCain and Obama. However for me, there are some policy issues that push me towards Obama more then McCain, but it isn’t like I feel that McCain is Bush (although I do feel he is more likely to follow that path). So my question is what do Obama and McCain need to do to sway voters like me.
Will the election be decided by these swing voters and that is where the focus should be? Or is my hypothesis incorrect and there will be a signficant portion of the Clinton voters who will vote for McCain over Obama?
You are missing the other side of the coin. Unless McCain repudiates the indefinite occupation of Iraq, a significant number of Republicans will vote for who ever the Democrats nominate.
Would you consider yourself the run of the mill moderate? Working, with family, college educated…I dunno, I think people voting down the center with policies on their mind will tend towards Obama - especially those who oppose the war even a little. This will work towards Obamas advantage, because McCain is not going to rescind his “Must stay in Iraq” policies - this again will bode well for Obama.
Yes I would consider my wife and I run of the mill moderates.
Both my wife and I have Masters degrees, have a family (one child), very well off financially. I tend to identify more on the Democratic side (as long as they don’t stray too far into the welfare state) but I am not opposed to many concepts on the Republican side (as long as they stay away from the religious right). There are several issues on McCain’s side that both my wife and I have issues with that we can’t get beyond, but overall he isn’t the anti-christ to us. I have been VERY impressed by Obama and how he is handling his campaign, that is a big draw for me personally. In that respect Clinton has done poorly (I like her too) but I find her she has handled her campaign too ‘bush’ like for my tastes. Being organized and planning says a lot to me–being proactive rather then reactive is a positive.
I would agree–that is part of my question. What does Obama need to do to attract those Republicans? I have been impressed by Obama taking on McCain on the veterans issue. He isn’t conceding anything and that is good from my viewpoint. McCain’s strong reaction to that was over the top and did not win him any points with a voter such as myself. Some may worry that Obama doesn’t have strong credentials, but he is impressive in that he seems to take things on directly.
Niether of them should “do” anything, other than be clear and concise in their phrasing when they speak of the policies they represent. And the distinctions are so stark, I find it hard to imagine a “middle”. Sure, we progressives can compromise with conservatives on social issues, so long as progress moves forward, there is room for bargaining, there is room for a middle.
But the war? What are we to do, compromise between “Out Now!” and “a hundred years”, and settle on fifty? On issues like that, its either lead, follow, or get out of the way. Moderation just won’t get it.
I’ve talked with Hakuna before here and I was asking if he thought of himself as a runn of the mill moderate. I wasn’t ascribing Working-Family-College-Educated to all moderates…I was unclear.
I think continuing on the path they are on will land us in an interesting election season. I really wonder in the end how many people will cross lines to vote for Obama…I really wonder. I think there are some people who simply won’t vote for him…but I think the amount of people he can persuade before the election will outnumber those who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.
I think he appeals to those moderates who want to see some important ideological changes come to Washington, and McCain simply does not appeal in that way to most moderates - myself and my wife as well.
Fair enough. I mentioned it because the description seemed to me a demographic more inclined to support to support Obama.
It’ll be interesting to see to what extent Obama’s much reported “blue collar problem” vanishes once Clinton drops out of the race and such voters are actually asked to put their money where their mouths are.
As quickly as he can. And I would not expect any more explicit a promise than that. If he says three months and then find out its going to take six, I would expect him to say “Well, fuck me, I was wrong…”. But it would be a lot smarter just to commit to an exit as soon as practicable, and thats the best case scenario anyway.
Many, but not enough. If only 10% of Republicans vote Democratic, McCain hasn’t got a chance. He needs all the Republicans, and 20-30% of the Democrats. Bush got 30% in 2004. I seriously doubt McCain can manage that, especially with the up 3 to 1 registration of new voters by the Democrats. These new voters are highly motivated, and not for Bush’s 3rd term.
I think, I hope Obama keeps it real when talking exit strategy. I don’t want to hear how he’s going to bring them home in 2 months or whatever, it’s got to be a realistic time frame. That’s why my guess is two years to be out of Iraq - and with a skeleton-crew military base somewhere in Southern Iraq permanently.
Yes these are my thoughts as well. I have seen several posters on the Straight Dope who identify as Republicans who have stated they would vote for Obama and not Clinton. I don’t recall anyone stating (at least not in anger) that they would vote for McCain over Obama.
But these straddling folks are the voters I am speaking of. I don’t have the statistics for that demographic, but I imagine the bulk of the country identifies more in the moderate camp then either the right or the left—or am I wrong on that assessment?
Obama appeals to me because I see with him an ideological change. Clinton and McCain seem more of the status quo. I don’t seek change for the sake of change, but he seems to inspire and approach the issues without the bile of the left or the right, and frankly that is very refreshing to me.
I personally think it will be longer then 2 years, but have no basis for that other then my gut feeling. McCain’s 100 year position is enough for me to not vote for him, but if Obama said 3 months I would have to seriously reconsider my inclinations as well. However a commitment to start moving in that direction is good enough for me, but I think it will not be easy nor pretty when it happens.
