What do you think about OBBBA? [One Big Beautiful Bill Act]

Politics & Elections
41

I doubt you will find much spirited debate here. In fact, I have not heard ANY explanation of why this is a “good thing.” Only the vaguest of partisan claims. If even that.

It truly is disappointing that our government is acting in ways I find so clearly contrary to what I would hope for. Without getting into what is/isn’t being funded, I have seen no justification offered for the continued tax breaks for the wealthiest, which will impose greater and greater costs on future generations. I suppose to the extent any justification is offered, it will be some variety of “trickle down” BS.

But, history will show that favoring the rich and targetting the poor has been a pretty recurrent pattern in the US. And yet, the Repubs will claim THEY stand for fiscal responsibility, and will continue to charge the Dems as being the party of “tax and spend.” When the unavoidable reality is that the Repubs are the party of “don’t tax, but spend nevertheless.” I’m not at all a fiscal hardliner, but the unnecessary irresponsibility of this is impressive - even in light of past irresponsibility. I am embarrassed for the burdens we are imposing on our children and grandchildren.

Nor have I seen any good explanations for either cutting services relied on by the most needy, cutting all manner of public services/protections, or the grotesque expansion of ICE. I do not share whatever values those reflect.

It is quite impressive that enough Congresscritters will go along with this. Yet I’m doubtful that even folk who lose their medicaid or experience other direct harm will change their votes. I remember being confused by the strong working-class support for W, when his policies impressed me as consistently contrary to their best interest.

I am embarrassed for my country. But our fucked up system allowed Trump and his lackeys to occupy the executive and legislative branches and, as a result, the judicial as well. Ugly times indeed.

42

Republicans have been promising to lower the deficit, and actually raising it, since Reagan. The promises come when they’re campaigning, with colorful backdrops, patriotic music, and at a time when people are paying attention to politics. Passage of tax and spending bills are accompanies by the same sorts of rhetoric, with less pomp and circumstance, and when fewer people are listening. The actual result comes later, after the fiscal year is closed and the numbers are all added up. No one is paying attention, no one bothers to look at the numbers.

Republicans raising the deficit is the surest bet in American politics. And if you ask people why they vote for Republicans, I’ll wager a large chunk say they do it to lower the deficit and debt.

43

There have been many long essays and books trying to explain this phenomenon. I think the general reasons are a combination of:

  1. They don’t actually think these changes will make their own lives harder. Just the other guy. Who probably has it coming because he’s either a fraudster or an immigrant or somehow taking advantage of the system.
  2. They are either rich themselves, or want to be, or don’t really understand the difference between middle-class and rich.
  3. They have fully bought into the theory that the rich are what makes an economy work and by allowing the rich to accumulate more wealth you incentive risk-taking and job creation.
  4. They are motivated by anger towards a group that they perceive as “others” and are extremely happy with any legislation that punishes that group.

(4) is perhaps the most relevant today, as it’s what Trump and MAGA has successfully motivated in a way that hasn’t been done recently in the US. 1-3 have been core parts of the conservative base for a long time.

But because of item 4 you have conservative hunter/conservationist types supporting measure that let the government sell off private land becasue it will piss off the “environmental lobby”. Or poor folks on Medicaid supporting cuts because they are sure that the cuts will actually just hit immigrants or “cheaters”, not them. Or recently naturalized immigrants supporting ICE crackdowns because it will keep out the next wave that might compete with them for jobs.

The real magic is what @Robot_Arm and others have mentioned. They included a debt-ceiling increase - something the GOP has fought so hard against repeatedly - and only Rand Paul make a squawk about it. Trump has made the GOP completely abandon fiscal conservatism.

44

Cultural warfare. Trump and conservative media somehow convinced people that Trump represented their interests and would protect them from the evils of literature and drag queens. These aren’t minor things. For the Trump die-hards, discrimination, retaliatory violence, ignorance of how things work, and imposing their religion on others (particularly women) is central to their identity. They also hate experts or well-educated people, so painting Democrats as the liberal elite was pretty effective, too. That’s all it took, really. He also lied about the economy a lot.

Really it comes down to lying.

45

That’s its real name: H.R.1 - One Big Beautiful Bill Act

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1

46

Just the fact that the sponsors named it so to curry favor with Trump is an omen for just how far the Congress (and the country that elected it) has gone down the path to despotism.

Stranger

47

If this bill does the damage that everyone is predicting, I’m betting that Lisa Murkowski will lose her seat in 2028. By then, the ravaging of Medicaid will have begun to decimate the Alaska Native population and their vote will go elsewhere. And yes, they are influential in the state. Too bad, as she is normally one of the voices of reason on the right

48

Not enough. They are local and get very little publicity outside of local news.

Protests are one thing, but effective protests mean more. National strikes, for example. Or as what occurred during the LA protests by closing a major interstate, even for a short while. People unaffiliated with protests need to be made aware , in their faces to a level of disruption. Disrupting daily commerce with effective protests. None of this is occurring.

There was a big ballyhoo with the last protest saying from sources that the 3.5 percent rule was achieved. BFD. Well, that “rule” is a starting point. It has to be sustained again and again, regularly, and not just one protest a month on a Saturday. Add in the national strikes and disruptions to daily commerce that affects everyone.

Ain’t gonna happen.

49

There was massive resistance within the GOP, which has been dealt with in recent months. What you are now seeing is the final product, after the resistance had been put down.

The bill was designed to pass, and it did pass, which is no small feat. If it actually contains the social spending cuts you mentioned, it represents a huge short-term victory for the administration.

~Max

50

She just ceded any moral authority or commitment to rationality. Unfortunately, I’m sure the AK GOP has a MAGA candidate waiting in the wings to replace her, and she’ll shift further and further in that direction to be competitive.

Stranger

51

I think you missed my point. The GOP abandoned fiscal conservatism 44 years ago, but voters haven’t noticed yet.

52

I just called my representative to urge a vote against OBBBA, not to think it that putting my two cents in will do any good. But I think my representative’s situation my explain why this thing got through up to now and is certainly going to pass tonight or tomorrow.

My representative is a GOP backbencher, a third-termer who squeaked past the Democratic candidate by a few thousand votes at each election. (Thank you, Raul Grijalva! /s) You might think that, with such a narrow margin of victory, he would be very cautious about voting for a bill that guts a major source of money for his constituents’ healthcare.

But you would be wrong. He’s postured at times about making sure to save Medicaid (always with some weasel words about maintaining it “for the original purpose” and used the thought-destroying cliche “waste, fraud and abuse”) but he’s voted twice in favor of legislative actions that either implied or forced massive cuts to Medicaid.

How can we explain this? Well, with such a tight margin of victory to try to preserve, he’s probably screwed either way - if he stands against this bill, he becomes a MAGA target, but if he votes for it, he’s going to erase a lot of health coverage for his constituents, probably enough to wipe out his victory margin. Either way, January 2, 2027 will probably be his last day in elected office.

So he’s looking at what he’ll do on January 3, 2027. If he votes for this bill, a whole lot of rich people will have a whole lot more money to hire lobbyists and political operatives, and many of them have probably already talked to him at various closed-door “information sessions” about what kind of things he’d like to do once his time in public service is over. He’ll probably slide into one of those jobs without missing a beat, and at a hefty multiple to his current Congressional salary as well. For that matter, if he votes against it and it still passes, he might have a similar offer - his future employers know how things work, and he was under a lot of pressure, and who knows - maybe he could have pulled it off in his third election? There are still a bare few “nays” to spare in the House to allow some vulnerable members to at least seem independent in their votes, and possibly survive next year’s election.

On the other hand, if he votes against it and it fails? The wrath of the personality cult known as MAGA will fall upon him and what few other holdouts there were who stopped the bill dead. Donors, who spent so much money to save on taxes but then get nothing in return, are going to dry up, and those ones who talked to him about future jobs will send his calls to voicemail. Forget about getting anything he might want passed this session. Once it’s over, maybe he’ll be able to work on a political campaign or two, or go back to school for a law degree, or maybe I’ll see him working the drive-through window the next time I go for an In-N-Out burger.

The party of oligarchy does enough to keep those who do its bidding featherbedded and secure. The Supreme Court will protect these private bribes against government action, as - for the majority of them - their cushy retirements are on the line as well. And I fear that the American people simply don’t have the attention span or awareness of how it all works to stay the course for meaningful reform - which will take on the order of decades.

I somehow do not lose hope, because I believe that just because I don’t see how it could happen means that there is no way it will happen. But we are definitely in a bad way right now.

53

The Medicaid cuts start after the midterms, so no one will see those results by then. And, two years after one year from now is several eternities in politics.

54

I’ve given up. There’s nothing I can say or do to convince MAGA supporters of anything. These days, I often find myself laughing at the corruption, ineptitude, and lies. The majority of my countrymen choose this willingly. I don’t know if I’m more embarrassed we picked an autocrat or that he’s such a weak man.

55

You need to understand that right wing media in the US have been aggressively propagandizing Americans that not only is government not working, government cannot work, and it’s the fault of the left for foolishly believing government could ever work. Back in the 80s, Reagan got big laughs with the line, “The scariest words you can ever hear are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help you,’” and they’ve basically been beating that drum ever since. The majority of people in the US now accept that as a fundamental truth. Government is the enemy of freedom. Maybe a few programs here and there are okay, but overall, government is the problem.

So now, when services fall apart as a result of the right wing tearing government and state administration apart, the public will not make the connection that this is the GOP’s doing, that this is a direct consequence of specific action. They will simply accept this as the natural course of things, that the collapse of government is natural and inevitable because it was always going to happen. It’s the slowly boiled frog.

This is the right wing endgame. This is what all the work has been leading to. Trump’s hijacking of the party forced them to accelerate their timetable, but they now see the goal, reachable with one last push. And the public will accept it, because they’ve been primed for decades.

56

Most autocrats are fundamentally weak people. They hid behind spokespeople, threaten military action they have no intent or capacity to engage in, and sit at the end of a long table. But Trump is kind of uniquely pathetic even among so-called ‘strongmen’; a whiny, pathetic example of a narcissistic man-baby who was so terrified of a diminutive German woman that he wouldn’t even shake hands with her.. What a gormless, pathetic, mewling wimp.

The strange thing is this a complete turnabout for the pre-Goldwater/Reagan GOP. From Lincoln through Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and even Nixon, mainline Republicans believed in government as a solution to counterbalancing economic instability, corporate oligarchy, public safety, and promotion of science and education. And they also had a diversity of political views and policy ideals under their banner. Since Reagan and especially after the ascendence of Newt Gingrich as their ‘intellectual leader’, they’ve become a regressive monoculture of ‘Yes Men’ devoted to the notion that the root of all problems is government and solution is abolishment of every aspect of the administrative state, and that story became so powerful that much fo the Democratic party moved to an adjacent political position with barely enough policy differences in many areas to allow a crack of daylight. The only real distinction between the parties’ overall agendas for the last couple of decades has been in the manufactured ‘culture wars’ outrage, and that the GOP took a hard right turn into autocracy and nascent fascism has been as much a need to distinguish themselves in the political marketplace as it was the inevitable slope they’ve been sliding down since the “Contract With America”, where a bunch of complete hypocrites lectured Americans on morality and fiscal responsibility while fucking everything that moved and lining their pockets.

Stranger

57

Charles Schumer managed to get that name removed. By the time it was adopted, it was just called “The Act”, apparently. Would have been nice to get some of those horrible policies removed, too.

Story on MSN

58

Well, that’s a power move.

Stranger

59

Change the name to One Big And Magnificent Act and see if anyone notices.

60

John Oliver did a good analysis of this abomination on last Sunday’s show. Among the bill’s key features are tax cuts that will mostly benefit the rich – 60% of the cuts go to the top 20% income earners. It will be partially paid for by gutting Medicaid and SNAP benefits (among other things) but would still add trillions to the national debt over the next ten years.

The social spending cuts are being disguised as increased requirements for recipients to be working, but what this really does in practice is add greater administrative burden to the qualification process which is already onerously burdensome, so part of the “beauty” of the “beautiful bill” is it will effectively remove more needy recipients from the rolls, recipients who in many cases are already struggling to meet the qualification requirements, further hampered by poor support services and broken online systems. If this bill passes, the analysis suggests that the number of Americans without health insurance will soar to over 44 million.

Being poor in America has always been a tragic plight, but it will get a whole hell of a lot worse.