Say, in the next 2-3 years, do you see the Taliban trying to carry out another fatal attack on U.S. soil? I wouldn’t put it past them, but I think they’re more likely to attack targets nearer to them - like maybe a rehash of the Cole bombing. I’m thoroughly convinced that we have ten times more to fear from right-wing domestic terrorists than foreign jihadists.
The Taliban have never carried out an attack on U.S. soil, nor were they responsible for the attack on the USS Cole. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are two different organizations.
I think the odds of a Taliban-backed attack on U.S. soil are essentially nil. I think the odds of a terrorist attack by Islamist terrorists with ties to the Taliban or more likely ties to an organization which the Taliban allows to operate on Afghan soil are non-trivial, but still on balance unlikely.
Right now, the Taliban, or at least currently-dominant factions within the Taliban (which is far from a monolithic entity), seem to want to consolidate their hold on Afghanistan and to build some sort of functioning state and economy.
And Islamist terrorism has changed considerably since 2001. The older Al-Qaeda style of hierarchical organization and direct command and control is largely obsolete. Much more common now are attacks by a “lone wolf” or “self-radicalized” terrorist. I think that’s the most likely in the next couple of years in the U.S. - a lone wolf/self-radicalized terrorist who claims some sort of inspiration from the Taliban. But even then, now that the U.S. has withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s fairly unlikely. There’s just not a current rallying point for violent extremism by Islamist terrorists against the U.S. Of course, that could easily change in the next couple of years.