What do you think - "Second Cold War" likely?

[tingbudong]

@Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor

No.

A) China is making territorial claims, a phrase that would chill your blood, if you read the history of what can happen after it is used.

B) China has severe internal issues, & the Party is worried about a “Chinese Spring” scenario. They are stirring up Nationalism & Xenophobia to distract the discontent masses.

Agreed. Chinese Nationalism and the way the Party is using it to bolster it’s narrative is an underappreciated factor in Sino relations with the rest of the world. It’s working well for them now, but could ironically cause their demise and really create an issue in Asia.

@Lemur866

Yeah, yeah, Russia has a lot of surplus obsolete equipment rusting away on various military bases, and can muster up a lot of conscripts if needed.

So what?

Russia’s military spending is slighting higher than other European powers. But their economy, the logistical base of that military, is far lower than the other European powers. Italy, Germany, France, and the UK are each individually economically much larger than Russia. Russia isn’t quite a third world country, but it’s on par with Mexico and Brazil rather than Europe or Japan.

And the important part is that every European country is allied together against Russia. What countries are allied with Russia? Belarus? Moldava? You think Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine means their near neighbors will fall in line? Or will they beg for help from NATO?

And Russia being able to carry out operations in Syria is not exactly terrifying. Take a look at the overseas military adventures of Australia.

I’m not saying that Russia is militarily helpless. They do still have a giant nuclear arsenal. But the notion that they are economically or culturally or politically a rival to the United States is laughable. Back during the cold war the Soviets used to position themselves as a cultural center, a scientific center, an economic center, a political center. We used to worry about countries allying with the Soviets instead of the West. We used to worry about countries falling to communism and joining the Soviet Bloc.

There is no such thing as a Russian Bloc, or an anti-Nato alliance in 2016, and there is no prospect of any such thing. Nobody on the planet thinks the Russians are the wave of the future. The only thing the Russians have going for them is that they’re now a normal authoritarian country rather than an ideological state.

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[John_Mace]

@Lemur866

If you think Russia is emerging as a new superpower, let me ask you one question.

What’s the GDP comparison between the United States and Russia? And is Russia’s economy improving, or declining?

Wait, before I ask you that, is Russia’s GDP higher than Canada’s? Or lower?

And before I ask you that, is Russia’s GDP per capita higher than Mexico’s? Or lower?

And now…the reveal!

Russia has a lower GDP than Canada, despite having 5 times the population. Russia has a lower GDP per capita than Mexico. Russia has half the population of the United States. Russia’s economy is about 1/10th the size of the American economy.

Russia is a country plagued by serious internal problems, a poor economy dependent of export of natural resources. They’d be doing well to crawl their way into matching the economic success of Brazil. Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada, Japan, and SOUTH KOREA each have larger economies than Russia. Note that all these countries are military and economic allies of the United States.

Let me explain that again. Germany alone would be stronger than Russia as a world power. France alone would be stronger. Britain alone would be stronger. Japan alone would be stronger. Italy alone would be stronger. Canada alone would be stronger. South Korea alone would be stronger.

And which countries has Russia cultivated? Which countries are looking to Russia for leadership? Russia is completely diplomatically isolated. NATO is an explicit anti-Russian military alliance, consisting of every major country in Europe, including former members of the Warsaw Pact.

People who believe that Russia is on the advance and taking advantage of America weakness are literally delusional. They believe in a narrative of American decline for personal reasons that have nothing to do with empirical reality.

That was my first thought. A Cold War has to be between more or less equals or the one side just crushes the other economically. Which is basically why the actual Cold War ended.-- the Emperor turned out to not have any clothes.

The other key thing is that the real Cold War grew out of the shattered countries of Europe as the West and Russia jockeyed for control over that continent. We don’t have that type of situation today.

[jtur88]

@Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor

No.

A) China is making territorial claims, a phrase that would chill your blood, if you read the history of what can happen after it is used.

B) China has severe internal issues, & the Party is worried about a “Chinese Spring” scenario. They are stirring up Nationalism & Xenophobia to distract the discontent masses.

Where are these so-called territorial claims, besides a few unpopulated offshore islands? Tibet has been a part of China since before Arizona was a state, so don’t warm up that bs.

What country in the world has a better record than the USA of "stirring up nationalism and xenophobia?

We need better “blood chilling” phrases than “what can happen after it is used”. Is it supposed to chill my blood to read about what can happen after trains run on time?

[Alessan]

@Flyer

Russia has always punched well above its weight in military affairs.

When? In WW1? In Crimea (Round 1)? Even in WW2, despite having over twice the population of Germany and greater industrial capabilities, it still took the Soviets five years and a bunch of allies to win the war. I’d say that the Russians always punched *below *their weight - and it was usually this considerable weight that brought them victory.

Let’s see the Russians win a war without a vast frozen steppe to retreat over, and then we’ll talk.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@Tzigone

And spy fiction? I was once told an anecdote that the demand for spy novels in the US dropped dramatically after the end of the USSR. No idea if true.

No, they just switched the villains from Russians to “terrorists”, often Arab or Islamic, or sometimes Chinese.

I son’t know if the total sales of such books dropped overall. I do know that this is one category that regularly sells well in our library used book sales.

[jtur88]

@Alessan

Even in WW2, despite having over twice the population of Germany and greater industrial capabilities, it still took the Soviets five years and a bunch of allies to win the war…

Really? When WWII broke out, Russia was only a single generation out of czarist agrarian serfdom. The Germans had invented the automobile, radio, etc…

[Alessan]

@jtur88

Really? When WWII broke out, Russia was only a single generation out of czarist agrarian serfdom. The Germans had invented the automobile, radio, etc…

And yet somehow they managed to produce more than twice as many tanks as the Germans.

Look, I’m not here to diminish the Soviets’ achievement - they won WW2, after all. It’s just that it’s ridiculous to claim that they “punched above their weight” because nobody was ever above their weight; in fact, using their greater weight was their main strategy in winning the war. To rephrase Stalin, when you have quantity, who needs quality?

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

@jtur88

Where are these so-called territorial claims, besides a few unpopulated offshore islands? Tibet has been a part of China since before Arizona was a state, so don’t warm up that bs.

Vietnam. The Philippines. Taiwan. all claimed by China. Some Chinese Generals have even asserted that legendary exploration accounts give them ownership of Australia.

What country in the world has a better record than the USA of "stirring up nationalism and xenophobia?

Nice irrelevant staw man, pal. We’re talkin China, you’re talkin smack.

We need better “blood chilling” phrases than “what can happen after it is used”. Is it supposed to chill my blood to read about what can happen after trains run on time?

Again, WTF?

[jtur88]

@Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor

Vietnam. The Philippines.Taiwan. all claimed by China. Some Chinese Generals have even asserted that legendary exploration accounts give them ownership of Australia.

Show me a citation to any clam by anyone representing the Chinese government, to territory in Vietnam or the Philippines. The Spratley Islands, virtually uninhabited, are claimed by five countries. Why do you insist that China is the only country whose claim is illegitimately war-mongering?

Give us the name of that general, the context of his assertion, and the circumstance in which he remarked.