Our armed forces are always practicing war games, and preparing (I hope) for the most realistic conflicts that may present themselves. However, as I see it, as we are now the only superpower, we don’t have much to worry about. Some potential enemies:
-RUSSIA: possible conflict as the Russian nation continues to break up. Are we in any condition to invade such a vast country? No way!
-CHINA: possibly rivalry as China attempts to become a regional power in Asia. However, they have a 3rd-rate navy, and no naval aviation. Their China Seas fleet would be sunk withing 15 minutes of war with the US.
-The EU: possible conflicts over energy supplies, trade, etc. I hardly think that these would ever escalate to a war situation, however.
All indicarions are that we have much more to worry about-like the fanatics in Saudia Arabia…but nuclear attack submarines and F-22 fighters aren’t much help against this type of enemy…so what kind of armed forces are we going to have?
Why do you think the USA, in 10 or 20 years, would want to invade Russia at all? It’d be pretty much technically impossible. Much easier to hang back, bomb their communications and command centers, and press for surrender than try a land invasion of such a vast and hostile terrain.
When global warming renders the southern and western portions of the united states unihabitable, I expect we’ll go after Canada.
You seem to be implying they’re inhabitable to begin with.
General Questions is for questions with factual answers. I’ll move this to Great Debates for you.
Off to Great Debates.
DrMatrix - GQ Moderator
lol. Not only could we never invade Russia in any case, we 'd also have to keep in mind that they still have a few thousand f*ing ICBMs. I also wouldn’t say Russia is “breaking up”… not quite yet. Well, not only do they not have the money to wage war (unless desperate), they need money to develop their infrastructure again, which is largely coming from the West. THey’re doing a nice ballet trying to be everyone’s friend.
“China attempts to become a regional power in Asia” is the understatement of the century. Taking out China’s fleet means nothing - they have very little use for one, and they know it (which is why it is no threat). But there is no possible way on any grounds that we could stand a fight with China in Asia. If that happens, I’ll eat my hat, because that’ll be the last of my worries.
Hardly. Not only is the EU not a military unit yet, they’re hardly an economic one, and they’re damn well not sticking their toes into anything resembling a war more complex than dropping a bomb and sending a few MPs.
North Korea. Goes without speaking. Not a direct threat, but a large indirect one.
You leave off your list, well, most of the Middle East, which at this rate we’ll be at war with for centuries. There’s always Brazil, who is a rising power (and rumored to be getting The Bomb). Basically, if we can manage to avoid the continent of Asia… and probably Africa, for good measure, we may be OK. Then we just have the terrorists to worry about. Russia we don’t have to worry about as long as their government isn’t taken over by a dictator (Putin does have this option available).
Two words: Napoleon. Moscow.
Our economic ties with China and the EU preclude the realistic possibility of a true war between us, not to mention that we all have have enough nukes to take each other out. Certainly Taiwan has the potential for a localized conflict between us and China, but I think both parties would do all they could to keep the conflict isolated to Taiwan. And invade Russia? Uh, to say the least, the logistics of such an effort are beyond us, or any other army in the world. (Talking about pushing to Moscow; Certainly as China gets bolder, they may take a bite of Siberia here and there.) Not to mention, the Russian army is in no position to threaten much these days. Fulda Gap is safe.
We have not seen the ‘War to end all wars’, not by a longshot. But war between major powers is nearly unthinkable. Even the Arabs states have largely dropped the fantasy of (successfully) invading Israel. The global economy sees to it that their would be an instant and large cost of going to war with the US (and vice versa) for any large nation. It’s fun as heck to wargame out the ‘what-ifs’, but look for wars between great powers and little obstinate countries in the future, not some WW2-style slugging match between the US and China or something.
And yes, I understand the difference between ‘their’ and ‘there’, but the free-thinking poet in me refuses to accept it…
:smack:
If someone had been asked in 1890, “Who will our enemies be in 1940”, do you think they would have had a clue? If you asked someone in 1975 who are enemies would be in 2004, do you think they would say the Russians are our friends and we would be fighting a global war against Islamic terrorism?
Predicting geopolitical events more than a few years into the future is folly. Trying to guess who our enemies will be in 50 years is pretty much meaningless. If anything this is even more true today than it was 50 years ago. Back in the era of ‘industrial war’, at least you could rule out small countries and poor countries. This is no longer true.
Not likely. China wouldn’t risk it - though they won’t back down, either.
(Talking about pushing to Moscow; Certainly as China gets bolder, they may take a bite of Siberia here and there.)
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I disagree. The theory of a large scale Russo-Sino war has been around forever… Fact is, Russia has never really held control of Siberia, they just claim it, and no one else disputes it. Mongolia could invade Siberia. No one has the resources to hold or develop it, though. A war for Siberia isn’t likely for at least a half dozen more decades.
They’re threatening the Chechens somethin’ furious right now.
The Russians may not be the most technologically advanced or well funded, but they NEVER were. The one thing the Russians have going for them is tenacity. You count them down, and they’ll retool and reunite overnight.
I agree. My original thought at the OP’s assessment was that he picked the 3 biggest entities. Much more likely is prolonged conflict with many smaller nations.
I’d betcha $20 that Germany would be on that list.
Wouldn’t have surprised me. Though I wouldn’t classify Russia as “our friends” today.
Right on. But they have gone from GSFG threatening to push to the Rhine to a Motor-Rifle division or two trying to patrol Grozny. An ignominious pause for the Red Army, no? I mean, it’s great that Russia has Tula and all those other plants ready to churn out some OK stuff to fight back the Fascist hordes, but that really isn’t the need for their army, is it? Russia has some painful surgery to perform before their armed forces are truely modernized. They just never let go of the lessons of WW2 (churn out lots, NOW!).
To put it another way: The Red Army, though magnifent in war, sucks at peace. And since peace is a state encountered far more often than war, it only makes sense to adjust the army accordingly.
But enough of that hijack, and back to reading Red Army by R.Peters…
Of course, a mere shade of its past. Of course, the strength of the Red Army in those days was sheer numbers - they tapped every available Russian. They ddin’t have bad technology, but they didn’t have enough of it to go around, and not enough to match the American production numbers by a longshot. What they DID have was the ability to pave a road from Berlin to Paris with corpses. After much study, I don’t think that the Russians would have really been able to do that, but Stalin saw an opportunity and took it. In the long run, he overextended himself anyway.
Actually, I disagree here. I think that, given the capital and a year, Russia could produce one of the finest armies the world has ever seen, and unlike America, would have the backbone to use it (not saying that that is a good thing 
Unlike, say, China, or Iran, or North Korea, or other “potential enemies,” Russia has the potential to actually independently develop and field its own military without relying on anyone else. The only other people currently in this market are the collective Europeans and us. And frankly, the Russians aren’t half bad at what they do develop. They would certainly beat the holy crap out of anyone else on Russian soil.
And again, unlike America or Europe, Russia is more than able to mobilize their entire country into war production if the need should arise.
The Russian Army is probably the most completely ‘domestic’ army in the world; Since the end of WW2, what foreign made stuff have they had in service? (Other than stolen bits and peices, of course.) Even today, though there is collaboration with western companies for the export market, I can’t think of a single foreign system in Russian use. America, France, China, Britian, etc, cannot make that claim.
Not neccesarily a good thing, mind you, but a neat thing, to be sure…
Just reiterate some points. Perhaps the easiest country for the US to invade and control would be Canada. Sure a lot easier than trying to take on Russia or China.
It’s a long shot, but I could see China doing a grab for Siberia
Maybe I’m an optimist, but I don’t see any more bids at world domination as in the Nazi case. I don’t see any more global conflicts over someone trying to take land. Future wars are going to be about ideology and religion- but these wars will be conducted like the current US - Al Qaeda war. Terrorism and counter-terrorism are going to be with us for many decades to come.
I think any talk of a US-EU was is just fantasy, but saying that trade and economics would lessen the chances of war against China is simply unrealistic.
From Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August: “Besides the two Moltkes [each was a German Chief of Staff of the army]… some military strategists in other countries glimpsed the possibility of prolonged war, but all preferred to believe, along with the bankers and industrialists, that becase of the dislocation of economic life a general European war could not last longer than three or four months. One constant among the elements of 1914 – as of any era – was the disposition of everyone on all sides not to prepare for the harder alternative, not to act upon what they suspected to be true.”
Wealth does not remove a reason for war. Especially when the government of China has barely tapped the seething underbelly of nationalism, which can easily be channeled into a drumbeat for war against the American imperialists.
Well, I suppose its possible that given the capital they could possibly produce ‘one of the finest armies in the world’ if by that you mean number 2 or 3 in the world. I don’t think anyone is even close to the US nor are they likely to be…the US simply spends more money and places more emphasis on its military than anyone else. I will agree that Russia would have more ‘backbone’ to use its army in an arbitrary way than the US would…and that this is not necessarily a good thing. Luckily I seriously doubt Russia is likely TOO have the capital to do much in the way of reforming its military in the forseeable future.
To answer the OP, I seriously doubt the US will be confronted with a superpower in any meaningful military way in that time frame. Mostly I see a series of low scale conflicts revolving around the ME and terrorism, possibly branching out to other areas (Africa springs to mind atm). Perhaps by the end of that time frame America’s time will be done or seriously on the wane and some other power will be rising to fill the vaccume. Time will tell.
-XT
Domestic? Yeah,right. The Russians have been reverse-engineering or copying Western weapons systems since WWII. Hell, in the mid-40s they produced a whole fleet of B-29 bombers (TU-4) which were pretty much exact replicas of the US design.
Look at their missile designs, combat aircraft, and even the ill-fated space shuttle “Buran”.
They are experts at stealing tech and adopting it to their own means. They don’t need “foreign” made stuff, just good blueprints, heh.
On the other hand, Mr K’s assault rifle was a homegrown product, and will likely go down in history as one of the best infantry weapons of the 20th (and most produced in its various flavors) century.