I think we will eventually understand nanotechnology enough to invent something that will knock our socks off. Don’t know what it is, though. That’s the point about inventions; you don’t know what they are until they are. Who would have imagined in 1955 that I would have on my laptop a computer that cost a couple hundred 1955 dollars that would run rings around the Univac I?
Here is a prediction, though. The 2050 home will look nothing like the 2000 home, while the office will not have changed that much. This is based on the following observation. The home in 1950 was entirely different from the 1900 home, while the 1950 office was not that different from the 1900 office. The telephone in 1900 was nearly retricted to offices; typewriters were becoming common; primitive accounting and calculating machines were on the way. By 1950, these had all become common in the office, but were only incrementally improved. In the home, on the other hand, electric lights, electric irons, simple wringer washing machines, vacuum, radio and the newly fangled TV, not to mention telephones, had transformed home life. By 2000, the washing machines had become automatic and dryers were added, but there was very little in the average home that would have been incomprehensible to a 1950’s housewife. At the same time, office automation had transformed the office and made it entirely different from the 1950 office. So what I expect by 2050 is home automation. Cleaning and cooking robots, on-demand entertainment, and maybe some new transportation option, since I don’t think people will stand for the current 2 hours a day commute time. Either they will desert the suburbs or telecommute or something else.
Improvements in imaging such that a lunar-based telescope will be able to directly image an Earthlike planet orbitting other stars.
A new Concorde.
The start of an orbital tower, leading to an orbital ring in another 50 years and the tapping of near-limitless solar power.
I also fear a major nuclear war between India and China. Both have burgeoning populations exceeding 1 Bn and can thus shrug off the massive casualties that such a conflict would inflict - indeed neither side has enough nuclear weapons to inflict more than pinpricks on the other’s population.
I find myself thinking of technological improvements in fashion, like:
Holographic clothing.
Clothing that makes one’s body invisible, like that Japanese raincoat thing.
Clothing that makes parts of people’s bodies invisible so they look thinner. I predict that this will be a big hit, but that it will cause lots of accidental collisions. (“Oh, I’m sorry, I didn’t realize that your invisible buttocks extended that far!”)
Exotic animal fur that can be grown in a lab without the animal.
Hair gel with nanorobots that can be programmed to move your individual hairs into very specific positions, or even constantly move them so you can have animatronic hair.
Clothing that becomes invisible to people wearing certain glasses, so you can allow only one other person to see you naked.
Clothing with animated colors and patterns.
Significant work went into the laser assembly (a totally different wavelength and method of processing it) and into the video compression algorithms.
If that’s not enough, I’d argue that by your logic, the CD was just an improvement on the record, which was just an improvement on scratching in the mud.
How about e_balling (and there’s bound to be a better name, I just can’t think of one at the moment)
Participants could be anywhere the net is. They would wear outfits fitted with various sensors and actuators. It would be a totally immersive technology. Something like a touchy-feely holodeck. And on further reflection, who needs a partner? Porn would move to another level. Instead of being a spectator sport you’d be able to buy an interlude with the partner of your choice.
Oh hell, I think I’ve just reinvented the Orgasmatron (if anyone remembers Woody Allen’s movie Sleeper
Ok, I concede on the DVD thing. I didn’t know what new laser technology was involved.
You could do worse to predict the future than look at scifi. First episode of Star trek was when the fax was invented. From the second episode onwards they dispensed with paper and no one carried clipboards around.
It would be a relatively small advent in the energy industry, but I’d really like for someone to figure out how to harness the power of lightning. Not only would isolated lightning power generators (actually, storers) store fossil-free (and hopefully very cheap) power, but their presence would help reduce the hazard of lightning strikes to trees and buildings.
<flippant> The Automatic Scientific Paper Generator would be nice, but may eventually put me out of a job, so we’ll have less of that.</flippant>
What I would like to see is an all in one gadget, that allows you to surf the net, make phone calls, store notes, check email, take photos (at a decent resolution), play music (of a decent quality, and preferably more than 20 songs), tells you exactly where the nearest pub is, and exactly how to get there, and switches the office coffee machine on whilst you’re en route to the office. All in a gadget that I could fit into my back pocket.
Electronic paper would be a nice idea as well. Something else I’d love to see would be a little device you could set on your skin somewhere, say attached to the top of your arm or something, which would monitor your blood sugar levels, without the painful process of having to prick your finger and test your blood sugar levels that way. It would not only save a lot of hassle, but would be a potential life saver, since at the moment, the only way for an outsider to tell if my sugar levels are low is by my behaviour, which is not the easiest way to see if someone’s going into a diabetic coma or not.
Did you see the movie?
In 1942 a movie about what life would be like in 50 years was made and then time capsuled, to be opened and viewed in 1982. I saw it (in 1982) at the La Jolla Museum of Modern Art. Some of the predicted technology had come about. The major bit, however, was Sky Freeways with personal aircraft having conventional propellers in front, and vertical ones in the wings. The sad thing was, traffic was just as bad.
My WAG is that they’ll figure out an easy, relatively inexpensive method to combat obesity in the next ten years. The market is just to big NOT to do it - whoever could make an anti-obesity pill that actually worked would make gazillions of dollars.
It astonishes me every time I hear some fool claim that “all that can be already is”. As long as there are problems, limits, and things we don’t understand, innovation/invention will continue. It’s probably an unimaginative reflex to look around and decide that “everything’s been done”. I am sad for the bottle-neck road this navigation may lead to (and perhaps we are already on).
DMark mentioned artificial limbs with an electronic connection to the brain. Already researchers have planted electrodes on the surface of blind people’s brains to give them some restored vision, so the extension to a computer interface is obvious. That gives us a connection to the Internet and all the other connected people. We can all be Borg!
And on further reflection, who needs a partner? Porn would move to another level. Instead of being a spectator sport you’d be able to buy an interlude with the partner of your choice.