Was just musing about what a crazy tidal wave the Internet was for society, much like the automobile was from the 1920s to the 1950s. And then I got to wondering what the NEXT huge thing is gonna be.
“Thing” is obviously very vaguely defined, since anything from an alien visit to an epidemic to a longer-lasting light bulb could hypothetically effect a sea change in society as a hole. I’m thinking specifically about stuff that fundamentally alters society.
And I’m personally steering clear of apocalypse-type stuff (nuclear war etc) since heck, people have been predicting the end of civilization for a long time now and it ain’t happened yet.
I’ll start with my prediction: I think some basic change will occur in transportation. I think the Segway, middling success though it is, is a first step in new kinds of getting-around that will have a huge effect (together with stuff like telecommuting) which will make the notion of getting from Point A to Point B a totally different ballgame (hopefully for the better). Essentially I think that gridlock will become such a problem, that the demand (and hence monetary rewards) for companies to brainstorm all new kinds of transportation methods will balloon over the next 25 years. The needs for alternative fuels will fold into this big shift.
Something like video telephony. We are, above all else, a species that loves to communicate. We live and breath to communicate. And communication has a large visual component that we’re missing when we e-mail or talk on the phone.
There have been several previous attempts to introduce videophones. They never caught on. Apparently, people just prefer voice-only or text-only communication. Who wants to worry about how you look before you make a phone call?
Currently every means of accessing the internet demands at least some action by the user. In the future, that barrier will be surmounted. There will be devices feeding information from online sources directly to people’s eyes and ears constantly. Some people will choose to keep these devices on twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. Eventually, technology will allow electronic devices to interface directly with the brain.
On preview: Curse you JohnT!!! Well, dangnab it, I typed all this and I’m posting it anyway. Phooey on you and your little smiley head. Ahem…
I’m in the process of reading **The Singularity is Near ** by Ray Kurzweil. The book suggests that various exponentially increasing technological trends are converging on a point, twenty or twenty-five years hence, at which artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence. Supposedly this will not only be the Next Big Thing, it will be pretty much the Last Big Thing (insofar as all other Big Things, such as the uploading of human minds into computers, will be inevitable outgrowths of this Singularity point).
Admittedly, it’s pretty far-out stuff. But then, back in 1980, so was the idea of being able to instantly access unlimited amounts of free porn from the privacy of my own bedroom, so clearly a lot can happen in 25 years. Kurzweil’s book is approximately 600 pages long including endnotes; and for a book that leans heavily on the miraculous powers of nanotechnology, he only spares one mention apiece for flying cars and the Space Elevator. So I get the impression that he’s striving for maximum credibility with all this.
Anyhoo… From JohnT’s smiley, I infer that the notion is unpersuasive even absent the repeated mention of flying cars. That’s fine; when the Revolution comes, no cyber-immortality for you, naysayer! More future for the rest of us.
Not flying cars, but cars that don’t have to be driven by a human. Some of the technology required is already being put into cars like the cruise control that slows down when it senses objects in its path. A driverless car would almost eliminate accidents and highway deaths.
The next one has already started but it is like the WWW in 1993. The technology is there but people just have to figure out what to do with the power. They are GPS embedded devices. The power to locate a person in space at any moment has huge implications. Don’t ask me exactly what they are because I would be writing up a business plan right now instead of typing this crap out. You will be able to combine GPS with the power of the Internet and wireless technology to do incredible things. Finding your car in a huge parking lot and spying on your teenagers are just the tip of the iceberg. Imagine devices that allow people with a common goal to swarm together in real time or allow really smart traffic monitoring and routing based on your specific destination.
The “Next Big Thing” might be just the opposite of technological progress. It might be a global oil crisis that sparks resource wars and puts our whole industrial-technological civilization at risk.
First, consumer robotics. The Roomba is the leading edge of this trend. Legos is also accelerating this. As soon as I get financing, I’ll let you know what my killer ap is.
Second, inventory management at the retail level. RFID chips and ‘smart’ stores, hinted at in an IBM commercial I think, basically walk in and walk out, and the ‘checkout’ knows what you bought and charges you automatically. I see it as the next step in JIT management. Stores will be leaner and meaner, stocking only what they know will sell in the next week. This could have huge ramifications, especially as in regards to commercial real estate. And the systems necessary to implement it will be affordable for even small merchants, not just the big box retailers.
Regarding an oil crisis, only in terms of oil, but not energy. There are plenty of alternative technologies that will pick up the slack if oil prices rise too high. The smarter ‘oil’ companies realize that they are in the energy business, not the oil business.
Actually, a camera that can take pictures including a z-plane depth map would be really useful, and theoretically possible technology. I hope to see that happen.
25-50 years … and then beyond : Meta-humans humans genetically engineered at first to be “designer babies” genetically engineered at first to be smarter, live longer, be taller and disease resistant and heaven knows what else eventually
