I actually agree with this one. I see a dramatic difference in the way all information is handled. My 3 year old will probably buy most of the music she listens to online. A CD will be something of an archaic item. Used mostly to buy 2nd hand or used CD’s for when an artist isn’t available online.
We’re talking in my lifetime here. So 40 years from now I can sure as hell see that most entertainment books are downloaded and displayed on a reader. Those readers will probably become cheaper and more readily available in the next 3 to 5 years. Referance books and such like will possible still be a hard-copy item, but I’m not even sure of that. I thought I remember reading recently that the federal government has required that all content that had been generated from grants be made publicly available after the first 2 years of publishing.
I’m not so sure about this Atrael. It may happen over a lifetime, and then again it may not.
I used to hang out in Baen’s Bar, the online forum for Baen Books. I bring this up because Baen is one of the few traditional publishers to have embraced electronic books. Their download and pricing policies reflect what I consider the realities of e-publishing, not trying to back end the realities of paper publishing into a new model. Because of this they make (last I’d heard) almost as much from e-books as they do from Canadian sales. And one thing that had been noted is that availability of an ebook generally increases sales of the dead tree editions.
I think, the long and the short of it is simply that there are a lot of people who like the feel of a traditional book.
Now, that may well change if/as reader prices come down to some lower price, and if the publishing industry gets its head out of its collective ass, but I don’t see those two things happening anytime soon.
When I was in high school, our much-esteemed physics professor solemnly predicted that by the time we had high school kids of our own, the reciprocating internal combustion engine that powered 100% of our cars would be as obsolete as the Model T was to us then.
When pressed as to the substitute power train, he suggested either electric motors or gas turbines – Chrysler was trying turbines experimentally then.
So, by 1985 or so…didn’t happen. Give it one more generation? 2005…still didn’t happen, and his prediction doesn’t look any closer to reality for the next generation, either.
I sure hope rap goes away. Of course I said that the first time I heard it, but I’ve given up the death watch.
I think food in cans will go away -all plastic boxes will pack more tightly on the shelves.
Cable anything will go away once dish and cell technology buy up more bandwidth.
I think the boy scouts will fade away but not the girl scouts. Just a hunch, based on continued urbanization. Certainly the 4-H clubs and Future Farmers will be few and far between.