I realize the state takes having the first primary very seriously. But what exactly are the stakes?
Is it just a prestige thing? Does the primary race bring money into New Hampshire in a significant amount?
I realize it gives them some influence over the nominations but does that pay off in the long term? Do Presidents follow policies that are more favorable to New Hampshire because their campaigns got a head start there?
New Hampshire businesses get a boost from first-in-the-nation presidential primary
Some parents consider taking their children to local campaign events to be educational.
So this is my WAG.
The beginning of a primary is important. Look at how many supposed competitors already “suspended” their campaigns at this early stage. We’ve seen elected folks in past years who succeeded only when they caught fire early and built up unstoppable momentum. So these early contests, especially where a candidate can get a lot of delegates, they’re important.
Now what does that give the state? If someone in one year makes promises to a state, and then doesn’t follow through, then the next time there’s a primary they may lose voters who were betrayed. So might someone who is endorsed by such a person, or mentored by them, etc.
So there is an incentive to do real things to appeal to a state, not just tell them what they want to hear, and that gives them influence.
Note that this only works if you’re not only an early state, but you continue to be cycle after cycle. That’s why it’s a huge deal when other states try to get ahead of the early ones. Those states lose the influence they had. And if this keeps changing, and there’s no guarantee that any state can consistently be early, then no state can have real influence. Hence why the parties often punish those who upset the apple cart in various ways, like taking away delegates or putting special rules in place. Also note that Republicans made early states give proportional delegates to reduce their influence.
Well said.
I’d turn it around. If New Hampshire became the e.g. 33rd state to hold their primary / caucus what would happen? They’d be 100% irrelevant and the only thing candidates would do in that state is file to be on the ballot and pay the $[whatever] fee. There’d be no real campaigning, no ads, no staffers, almost no nothing.
The answer, as always, is money, as @PhillyGuy’s cite indicated.
Take Iowa. DeSantis made a big thing of his visiting all 99 counties. That’s DeSantis and his staff and all the media and their staff visiting counties that don’t see any other tourism revenue. We’re hearing about it now, but some people from the campaign probably started scouting the territory in November 2020. Heck, I’m quite sure that some out-of-state politicians are penciling in visits to Iowa right now with thoughts of the 2028 campaign.
New Hampshire, because of its smaller size, receives proportionally more benefit. The same number of people tour every hamlet in the state. Residents there have been spoiled rotten by their proximity to candidates over the years.
Tens of millions are spent on campaigns in the early states. Much of that money goes to advertising vehicles to be sure, but millions are pointed to on-the-ground stops. Millions. Spent in cities, towns, and villages boosting local economies. Why wouldn’t states battle for more of the green stuff fortuitously being squandered inside their borders?
And - to be cynical for once /s - Iowa and New Hampshire do have reputations at stake. Both have 90+ percent white populations. South Carolina, Biden’s preferred starter state, is barely over 60% white. Removing their firstie status reveals the maggoty wound of white people being the default representatives of “real” America. Iowa farmers and New Hampshire villagers aren’t representative. Progressives have been screaming about this for years, and now it’s crept into mainstream Democrat thinking. A small advance, but a good one.
For decades, US ethanol policy was dictated by whatever the winning candidate had to promise in the Iowa caucuses to appease corn growers. It’s only in the last couple cycles that the issue has lost some of its punch.
Like everyone else said… money.
New Hampshire ad spending tops $77 million as Haley and Trump fight to the finish (CNN)
There’s an old joke I heard back in 1996 about Bob Dole in Iowa. It’s probably older than that though.
Reporter interviewing man on the street ahead of Iowa Caucuses: What do you think of Bob Dole?
Man on the street: Hard to say. I’ve only met him five times.
While I don’t disagree that money is a factor, it’s also true that smaller states would be utterly ignored if they didn’t go early. Just as it’s a valid criticism that NH isn’t representative of the nation as a whole, it’s also valid that the small states need some help getting noticed. And the small-town character really does lead to some interesting interactions.
I lived in NH for two decades, and Maryanne’s Diner was in my town, and one of my regular haunts. I’ve met quite a few politicians there even when off-campaign cycle.
That said, I really resented when the campaign busses would clog up the streets downtown, which was a constant nuisance. It scaled with the competitiveness of the primary (so I recall 2008 was brutal, since both D and R were starting fresh)
I remember McCain’s bus just parked on Main St (Broadway, technically), forcing everyone to use the side streets to get around him. I really, really wanted the cops to make him move, but they acted more like his private security.
It’s been said. Money. Attention. An undeserved sense of self importance. Despite the continuing spectacle both parties seek coronations of their candidates instead of an actual contest which allows voters to make a decision in an pointless and absurd manner.
Yeah, I feel like having the first primary gives the people of New Hampshire the maximum amount of choice in who they want to run. The further into the primary season you get, the more narrow the field is, and the less choice primary voters have. For example, what choices will the Guam and Virgin Islands primary/caucus voters have? Probably none- the party nominees will likely have been long decided before their primaries/caucuses happen.
If they didn’t do this, everyone would forget that New Hampshire exists.
Regardless of size, every state is ignored in the nominating process if it doesn’t go early. It looks like both nominations will be wrapped in a few more weeks. Do you think either Trump or Biden will be campaigning in advance of the California primary, or Texas, or Pennsylvania?
But where is it written that the primaries have to be in the same order every time? I have long thought that it shold be like the baseball All-Star Game; change the locations so that each state gets its turn at the head of the calendar. Call it geographic inclusiveness.
I applaud the Democrats for making a change this year, although they moved South Carolina from a position of great influence to a position of even more influence.
New Hampshire wrote it down here: Section 653:9 Presidential Primary Election.
653:9 Presidential Primary Election. – The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a date selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier, of each year when a president of the United States is to be elected or the year previous. Said primary shall be held in connection with the regular March town meeting or election or, if held on any other day, at a special election called by the secretary of state for that purpose. The purpose of this section is to protect the tradition of the New Hampshire first-in-the-nation presidential primary.
Other states, political parties, swim teams, etc are not obligated to give a shit about what New Hampshire wrote down.
As Gary Trudeau said, 44 years ago:
I should have mentioned that, yes. But as you say, no one else is obligated to honor New Hampshire’s desire to stay first, and this year the Democrats aren’t.
The USVI Republican caucuses are the very next event on the primary schedule, to be held February 8.
Weird… the USVI Democratic primary is the last one with June 8th.