This quote indicates some uncertainty as to whether the crime rates are growing or declining. Which is correct?
Second question: What does the experience in NSW tell us about the likely impact of gun control in other countries?
What does the experience in NSW tell us about the likely impact of gun control in other countries?
Nothing.
Or, to be more specific, “insufficient data.”
What was the gun ownership rate prior to the new legislation? What is the gun ownership rate after the legislation? What other factors–especially economic–can account for the possible rise in crime? What categories of crime have risen, and what have fallen? Just how big a jump, if any, has there been? How is the crime data collected?
[Yul Brynner]Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.[/Yul Brynner]
And a 24-month sample of the crime rate is all we get? Jeez, that’s just weak. We all know “correlation is not the same as causation,” but this doesn’t even show correlation very well.
I would say that this tells us that statistics are not very good for determining things.
Yeah, minty, this article has to be about the feeblest discussion of crime stats and policy that I’ve ever seen. They don’t even say exactly what they consider to be the “discrepancy” between one source’s assessment of crime trends over the last six months (or maybe three, they seem to change the figure halfway through the article) and another source’s assessment of trends over the last 24 months, nor anything about the absolute figures or comparisons with previous trends. Looks like if you want the real Straight Dope (although the data only goes up to 2000), you should go to Lawlink NSW’s New South Wales Crime Statistics site. There you can see comparisons of crime trends for all the years since 1995, breakdowns by category or area, etc. etc. etc. Given the way the numbers seem to have been jumping around in the past several years, I agree with you that the stats cited in the article seem to be totally inconclusive.
(BTW, would somebody mind explaining to me just what the hell any of this has to do with gun control? Did NSW just enact more gun control legislation, less gun control legislation, or what, and when? Neither the OP, the article cited in it, nor any of the sources I found offered a shred of explanation as to what the gun-control connection’s supposed to be with this.)
First of all fixed code
the Chief of Police referred to crime rates dropping in the prior 6 months the other study referred to rates in the prior ** 24 months**. And, it could be that if the crime rates dipped slightly in the past 6 months, but still remained over the rate it was at the beginning of the 24 month period referred to, that both statements could be correct.
Crime rate stats are an interesting topic in general, their reliability depend quite a bit on method of retrieval. They also can be problematical if raw numbers are not also available. In addition, one should be very careful about attributing causality (especially to only one factor, and for brief periods of time).
Crime rate data sometimes comes from police sources (ie reported crime) which is distinctly different than ‘actual crime’. As a good example of such, shoplifting, as a crime is rarely reported as such unless the theif has already been identified and apprehended. OTherwise, it’s called ‘shrinkage’ on the stores’ books.
I don’t know NSW sufficiently to know if jurisdictional differences may apply as well. The FBI universal crime data report that’s touted quite a bit, for example, takes a sampling of data from what they think is a representative group of places (I’d heard tho’ can’t recall which news source, that they won’t take data from Detroit anymore since they think it’s unreliable) What this means is that individual annomolies can significantly skew the results. For example, OK City experienced a sharp spike in ‘murders’ when the bomb went off. that one event could have ‘demonstrated’ that the murder rate in that city went skyrockting that year. Should we make any inference from that piece of data? No, I think not.
The numbers issue is a significant one. If last year there were 10 murders, and this year there were 8, that can sound like a lot in the percentage game, but doesn’t represent a significant change.
The length of time of the one piece (6 months), can also be problematic. For example, there may be more of certain crimes during certain times of the year - purse snatching goes up around Christmas.
(added in preview) and I see that Kimstu reliably, picked up on the discrepancy of the differing amounts of time in the study as well.
As I understand it, Australia more or less abolished private gun ownership just a few years ago.
i am hoping that some Australian posters may be able to describe the law change and its impacts.
december: *As I understand it, Australia more or less abolished private gun ownership just a few years ago.
i am hoping that some Australian posters may be able to describe the law change and its impacts.*
Well, I am hoping that one day you will form the habit of digging up the relevant factual evidence before you start a debate, rather than making wild-ass assertions like the above and then expecting other posters to do your homework for you, but I ain’t holding my breath. 
What you seem to be talking about is the tightening of gun regulation in Australia as a whole over the past couple decades, in particular the restrictions enacted after the “Port Arthur massacre” of 28 April 1996. This five-year anniversary article makes it clear that handgun ownership is indeed still legal in Australia, although semiautomatic rifles were banned and there is now a national gun registry. I would not consider that equivalent to “abolishing private gun ownership”.
Here’s a pretty good vignette of Australian gun control laws from a pro-control source. I don’t believe a source such as this is likely to overstate the reach of the law.
http://www.pcvp.org/pcvp/firearms/other/austr2.shtml
Ummmm…excuse me? What wild-ass assertions? I went back and looked at the OP, and all I saw was a long quote and two brief questions.
Not the OP, Al, I was referring to his most recent post.
Hi, Kimstu. I thought my modifier “more or less” made my comment innocuous enough not to deserve the epithet, “wild-ass assertions.”
I think I could have found cites claiming that the Australian experience proved that gun control is good and other cites claiming the opposite. My knowledge of Australia comes from a combined business/vacation trip of about 2 1/2 weeks. I’m in no position to say which sources (if any) are right. I’d prefer to avoid the kind of sterile debate where each side finds cites agreeing with their POV.
I am hoping to hear from Australians, who can help us decipher what has been going on in their country.
december: *I thought my modifier “more or less” made my comment innocuous enough not to deserve the epithet, “wild-ass assertions.”
I think I could have found cites claiming that the Australian experience proved that gun control is good and other cites claiming the opposite.*
No worries, I’m not complaining that you didn’t provide enough evidence about what the effects of Australian gun control are—obviously, it’s a debatable point and that’s why you started a debate on it (although with the original exclusively-New-South-Wales focus, it took a little while for that to become clear). I’m complaining that you didn’t bother to provide any evidence about what the status of Australian gun control is, beyond a feeble “I think they more or less abolished private gun ownership a few years ago, is there anyone out there who can tell me more?” I do feel strongly that the OP, especially, of a GD thread has a responsibility to supply some basic research on the most salient facts of the issue s/he wants to discuss, rather than just tossing out opinions or fuzzy impressions. But I’m sorry if the way I expressed that feeling in this case was offensively harsh.
As a Sydney-sider, I can assure you that the short answer to the OP is “not very much”.
NSW gun control laws are currently under review, and there’s a possibility that there will be a 3 month gun amnesty introduced in the near future. The intention of this amnesty (unlike the gun buyback which followed the Port Arthur massacre) will be to further reduce the amount of illegal gun ownership.
There are many, many, different sources of crime statistics in NSW, some of which exclude certain types of crime (most notably, murder). Even statistics based on trends can be misleading, as the laws regarding the possession of weapons change. Someone in possession of - for example - razor blades which they are using to cut certain drugs, can now be charged with a weapons offence. This was not the case until a few years ago when our tough knife/blade laws were introduced.
I wish that we did have easily interpreted crime statistics - it would make it a lot easier to decide who to vote for.
I’ll check around and see if I can come up with a balanced summary of both the NSW weapon control laws and the current crime trends. It should be borne in mind that economic circumstances have changed radically in this country in the last 12 months, and the impact of this is going to be felt most in NSW (the most populous state), and that NSW crime figures overall are aggregate figures, which are dramatically affected by incidents which might occur in a particular suburb of Sydney.
An extremely basic and reasonably recent recap of Australian gun control laws can be found here.
This page might give you some idea of just how useless our crime statistics are.
Cite for this OP responsibility?
Just kidding. See, I can do it too! 