Trump has promised to do a lot of things that would violate either NAFTA or NATO. What would the consequences be if he actually broke the terms of the treaties?
Treaties have force of law, so it’d be up to Congress to start impeachment proceedings.
I don’t know, seems like they break treaties with the natives pretty effectively.
Well, it’s contingent on congress giving a fuck.
Ask the Indians. They’ve got plenty of examples, mostly giving the answer: “Nothing bad happens to the President.”
But just “breaking the law” isn’t generally enough for removal from office–so the impeachment would just be for show (or used as a reason for those seeking one out).
What would most likely happen is that either:
a) the case would fall to the USSC, who would advise on whether or not the President’s orders should be carried out
or
b) diplomatic sanctions would be put in place by the wronged entity against the one that violated the treaty
or possibly both.
Nothing happens. Ask the hundreds of thousands or millions of dead people in the countries which US Presidents have bombed and invaded in violation of international law.
Moderator Note
Let’s keep political jabs out of GQ. No warning issued.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
I think someone who could show monetary loss could sue. Short of that, not much. Yes treaties are supposedly part of the supreme law of the land, but I don’t think they actually have much effect, short of enabling legislation. I don’t think any president would be impeached for it.
Moreover, the term “treaty” is sometimes attached to an international agreement implemented solely by a law and not ratified by a 2/3 vote by the Senate.
We like to call NAFTA a treaty, but it was never ratified as a treaty by the Senate. The Senate did pass the enabling legislation on a 61-38 vote, short of the two thirds majority a treaty ratification would require.
So any means by which a president might violate NAFTA would be dealt with similar to how violating a law - perhaps nothing at all.
“Ask the Indians” is actually a pretty good answer; if the President ignores treaty terms, there’s no special mechanism to force him to honor them. If congress disagrees with him enough they can impeach him, and Federal courts can order agencies to stop carrying out executive orders, but there’s really any direct mechanism to force such a thing. Some treaties have sanctions of some sort built in, so if the US was in violation of particular terms other countries might refuse trade or add import duties, and of course countries will be wary of entering treaties if the US grossly doesn’t follow agreements.
For the factual part, NAFTA isn’t actually a treaty as Iggy pointed out, and I’m not aware of Trump actually threatening to violate the terms of NATO - AFAIK he’s threatened to withdraw from it (the procedure for which is outlined in the treaty) and to pull back general support (which isn’t required by the treaty), but not to actually violate any terms of the treaty. If he did cut back support for other NATO members, it would be basically the same thing as other NATO members not meeting the non-treaty military spending agreements, which hasn’t done more than prompt annoyed rhetoric so far. Also ‘supreme law of the land’ really just means ‘overrides state law if it’s conflicting’, the phrase sounds more impressive than it really is.
Ronald Reagan famously violated the World Court Treaty, to which the U.S. was a signatory.
Nothing happened to him because of it.
(I’m sorry if this is perceived as a political jab; I meant it only as an historical cite.)
Treaties are only as good as the parties’ trust and willingness to abide and this in turn depends on the parties’ judgement of the cost v. benefit of not abiding (heck, so is Rule of Law itself, in the absence of an entity with the power to enforce). If there are to be any consequences directly upon the head of government that violated a treaty is a political decision, dependent on the political will to do it.