What happens if there's a long-term electricity outage that covers a large area?

Factual Questions
1

Although I haven’t seen anything recently, for a time there was a spate of articles claiming that the electrical grid in the US was susceptible to hacking. (Usually the article implied Russian hackers might do this.)

Assume this actually happens, and it affects most or all of the US. Obviously weather would have a big effect on the number of lives lost, but what else would happen?

If the outage is short-lived, water would continue to flow in areas with “city” water. But wouldn’t that last only a short time? Once the water towers have emptied, isn’t electricity required to pump the tanks full? Or do most city have generators for their main water pumps? If so, how long will that last?

If a home is on a well/septic system, will most be able to still get water through a manual pump? I have the impression that typically well water gets into the home’s plumbing system by use of an electric pump.

How about natural gas? Would it continue to flow unimpeded for the duration of the electricity outage, or is there a point in which the natural gas system will require electricity to keep going?

Will cellphone service continue? I know individual phones will last only as long as the batteries that power them last, but if you can recharge (through solar power maybe) could you continue to use your phone?

I figure you won’t be able to refuel your car, so you’ll be stuck with however much gasoline you have when the power went out. Except for checking on loved ones, there may not be anywhere you’d want to go. I was thinking we’d save our fuel for any emergency trips to the hospital – but how long will hospitals be able to function?

Given that people will use candles and oil lamps as light sources, I imagine there would be more need for firetrucks. How long will they likely be able to continue service? How would they know their services were needed?

Unfortunately, I expect it wouldn’t be long before there was some serious looting. How long would police be able to operate? And again, how could you contact them?

All in all, how long would it be before we descend into total chaos?

2

I experienced something similar to this, though on a somewhat smaller scale, during the Northeast blackout of 2003. it was caused by a computer glitch, so I assume it’s similar to what hacking may be able to accomplish.

Fortunately it happened in the summer, so no fears of freezing without heat. It actually wasn’t bad at all. We emptied out freezer and invited neighbors (some of whom we hadn’t talked to before) for a big bbq of shrimp and scallop kebobs, and had a great old time.

It happened during the weekend of a big event in the area called the Woodward Ave. Dream Cruise, and the Friday night before all the associated attractions in the carnival-like atmosphere at 9 Mile and Woodward— carnival rides, food stands, bands playing, etc.— were all business as usual, running on generators.

No tap water was concerning, but we had access to bottled water. I don’t remember hearing nay reports of any looting of any consequence, at least in our area. The total lack of light pollution, being able to see the Milky Way from our backyard, was amazing.

The power was restored less than 72 hours later. If it had gone on for a week or more, things may have gotten more dire, but as it was it was like camping, almost fun.

3

I think that it falls back to Alfred Lewis’ comment that “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

Given a total disruption of power for much more than 72 hours, people are going to very quickly start running out of food that is stored or can be prepped without some sort of off-grid fuel.

Absent weather related accelerating factors, I’d give it roughly a week before things started getting bad, especially if there was no improvement on the horizon. It’ll also vary by region - here in CO, the expectation (if you have the space and $ to do so) is that you keep supplies for at least 72 hours, about the norm for the once-a-decade or so serious snow-in where you’d expect to be without power and stuck without any way to get out.

Since pretty much all utilities are dependent upon computer control to manage, I’d fully expect those trying to depend on natural gas would fail under an extended lack of primary power.

I honestly think (IMHO territory rather than FQ) that the expected cyberattacks would result in more intermittent, rather than absolute power outages. That you’d be out for several hours/a day, they’d force a local or partial fix, returning to ‘normal’ then another exploit would result in another partial or medium outage. It would very quickly become an all hands thing, with probably a lot of back and forth. Which would be supremely irritating, but likely more survivable than a days-long absolute loss.

What worried me regarding this particular topic, was the discussion this time last year of what could happen in Texas if it’s grid, largely independent of the rest of the US, went down for a month for repairs. Something that pretty much zero steps have been taken to prevent despite much shouting after the Snowmageddon.

4

Really? I thought most people had a lot of pantry stuff which doesn’t need to be cooked to be safe to eat (even if it traditionally is cooked).

5

ROTFLMAO
We here in civilized Northeastern CT are the red headed stepchild of the electrical grid here in CT. All the resources go first to Fairfield County [down near NY] then center state Hartford, then coastal New Haven [Sub Base New London has its own generation plant, and submarines have cute little nuke reactors so in a pinch they can be shore power ] My town [Canterbury] on one notable occasion actually was the LAST community to get power back, some freaking 3 weeks … we have outages going from hours to weeks on end.

As a medieval recreationist and camper, our household has a generator in case it is summer and we need to power refrigeration, a cute little solar rig permanently mounted on the wall with the panel attached to the roof, and I have cooked for 60 people on a campfire so food is not an issue =) In the winter, we heat with an unpowered wall mounted propane heater and I can charge my series of LED ‘lightbulbs’ using the biolite or the generator as I choose. We also have a whole series of LED rechargable batteries we can charge either with the biolite or the generator. I do all sorts of interesting stuff on my smartphone that I can charge either in the van, the biolite or the generator. I am perfectly happy hanging out reading on my phone or kindle [rechargable etc] until the power comes back. Our well works with a pump powered by the generator.

So other than potentially running out of propane [we keep enough on hand for an average month] or fuel for the van and car, we really have not got an issue with losing power. Though before we got the generator, we would wander down to base and shower in the gym or pool there every couple days.

6

Let’s be clear - most people is making a huge socio-economic assumption. I know several co-workers, who work full time, who buy groceries paycheck by paycheck. Especially if you have kids, having a lot of food around is a big assumption.

And in the case of the specific people I’m thinking about, a lot of their ‘pantry’ food is things like pasta and beans, that is dried and cheap, as well as filling and versatile - right until you can’t get electricity and water to cook them.

So, yeah, figure an extended (over 72 hour) period with no power is going to start getting very rough for a large group of people. 72 hours, yeah, most people will get buy with their perishables and other supplies. But by the end of a week, a lot of people will start being hungry enough to stop caring about the niceties.

There will be plenty of people who have more extensive supplies / prepping, but I doubt they’ll be anywhere close to the majority.

7

This will vary. IF a city has independent generators of some sort they last as long as the fuel lasts. That’s it. Again, that will vary.

Most these days have an electric pump. Depending on circumstances this may or may not require a lot of power. It MIGHT be possible to somehow jury-rig an alternate power system for such a pump. Potable water will suddenly become very valuable.

A lot depends on whether or not the cell towers are still functioning. A cellphone without a working cell tower does not provide communication. It may have some other forms of utility in the form of apps loaded onto the phone, if you can keep it powered.

As it happens, I have a small emergency radio that runs on (count 'em!) battery, hand-crank, or solar. I expect I am the exception and not the rule. I also have a portable, 3 panel solar array (thanks to my late mad-scientist spouse) that can provide power during the day to a variety of things, including a deep- cycle battery for overnight use. Solar yard lights can provide light at night.

There will be some functions that hospitals can continue without power - but they will be limited. Very limited. And certainly not what we expect of 21st Century medicine in the industrialized world.

I’d hope a lot of folks would have flashlights, but yes, there will be more fires. How will the fire department know? Smoke and flames, I’d guess. Short range radio communications. They might wind up doing rescues if they run out of the means of pouring water on fires.

Policing will return to 19th Century techniques, with the addition of, again, portable radios if they can keep them powered.

I’ve heard estimates from 3 days to several weeks to a month or two. The truth is, it will vary. Some places will go downhill very fast. Others will have the populace organize, cooperate, and find ways to keep some sort of civilization going.

I think for a couple days people (and society) will hum along on inertia. A lot of people have some supplies, folks can get by for a few days, might even be a party atmosphere as everyone has a cook out for what’s thawing in the freezers.

Some folks will have camping equipment and stuff to eat that is less perishable that what needs a fridge, but that won’t be everyone and the food will go fairly fast unless you’re in Mormon country.

Yep, after a week folks will start running out of patience as well as food and potable water.

How many people know how to cook without modern appliances? How many people can build a minimal fire and boil water, much less anything fancier than that?

And if they’re smart they’ll be quiet about their resources so as to not attract the wrong sort of attention.

8

This is not quite exactly what the OP asked, but a very similar question is asked by the novel One Second After, by William R. Forstchen. The kick-off event in the novel is a massive EMP. This book is probably the closest thing we have to a definitive study of what would happen in such a situation.

9

Not even that is a sure bet. My buddy worked at a “Prepper” store and he said many Mormons, in order to fulfill the letter, bought a deal which was lots of sealed 5 gallon plastic buckets of hard red wheat and some filled with honey (which he said was bought so cheap he suspected HFCS). Good luck making dinner with that if no power.

So, we are talking another Texas thing? 2021 Texas power crisis - Wikipedia

Some lost power for three days. Between 300-700 died.

IIRC we lost power up in San Jose for about three days due the the big earthquake. AFAIK, no major issues.

We have about a months worth of food, and light for as longer as needed. No water, and things will get a bit dicey for toilet flushing. But we have plenty stored for drinking. We’d be okay for a month or so, if it didn’t get too cold or hot.

10

Cold weather would be a problem, but I know someone who’d probably take me in who has sufficient wood stoves for his home for survival. I may not have much to come back to, depending on how long problems continue, but let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

In winter a lot of people would die, plain and simple. Most housing these days depends on modern utilities to keep warm enough for survival in a temperate climate winter. Hot summer heat can also be lethal. A lot depends on the time of year.

11

The big question is whether the grid failing would be in such a way that would preclude “islands” of power. Keep in mind that the power grid is supplied with electricity by a bunch of powerplants that are all exactly in sync with each other at 60 hz alternating current.

IANA electrical engineer, but I think it’s possible that if the entire grid failed, it would be possible for powerplants to fire back up (a “black start”) and supply limited areas with power, until they could be reconnected with other powerplants as part of a larger effort to restore the entire grid.

I also assume (maybe not rightly?) that there’s some sort of plan for doing a cold grid start- some plant in the grid is designated as the “master” plant, and everyone syncs to it as they come back online.

As far as societal issues go, I would think that water would be the main one; I’m not sure that most water utilities have fuel reserves on hand to power their equipment for much more than a few days at most, if they even have that much.

12

I think even some people who have food stockpiled could end running out faster than they think if they assume the outage is short-term and don’t both ration the food they have out.

13

That makes me think that that wildfires in the US West would be an even bigger disasters than they are now.

Not mention any other disasters (such hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes) that occurred during an extended power outage.

14

People that are dependent on medical supplies would be in a world of trouble. Dialysis, insulin, medication, even baby formula. At any given time when my children were using formula, we might of had a 10 day supply on hand. I have no idea what we would have done if getting more became difficult or impossible.

I also wonder how long people would be willing and/or able to go to work at places like assisted care facilities, nursing homes and rehab facilities, where the patients are particularly vulnerable.

15

Des Moines, Iowa lost its municipal water supply for 12 days in 1993. Here’s a very cursory look; there’s a lot of information online about what happened (and didn’t happen, like riots).

My father was still on the DMFD, and the biggest worry was what would happen if a fire broke out that was too big for a pumper truck to handle (i.e. a house fire). One industrial fire did happen, and fortunately, it was right next to some flood water, so the crew pumped water out of there, and then got their hepatitis and tetanus shots updated.

16

Natural disasters - bushfire, cyclones - often knock out grid power to rural settlements and to some extent they have probably learned to harden themselves with back-up power for critical functions. An extended blackout [72 hours seems to be our line] in a city would be quite scary. Apart from all the other woes mentioned, high-rise apartments would be a problem, making a safe campfire in an apartment is not an easy thing, garage doors will be stuck shut so you can’t even drive to happier times.

If nothing else, the rapid spoiling of thawing food can lead to food poisonings that can’t be dealt with by overwhelmed hospitals.

Given that most people will chew up their mobile phone battery power tweeting and posting videos of their strife within 24 hours, even advising people of what they should do or to coordinate relief efforts will be problematic.

17

Ted Koppel wrote a book about the vulnerabilities of our power grid. It’s called Lights Out:

18

Puerto Rico, 20 September 2017. Hurricane Maria.
Jurisdiction slightly smaller in population and size than Connecticut. Municipalities ranging from 350K to 1800 inhabitants.

Power grid 100% down: generation AND transmission and distribution. My house in a middle-class neighborhood in the middle of San Juan did not get mains power back until January 2018 and then intermittently. Some rural areas not until July of 2018. Cell service sustained in such places where the backup generators were accessible for refueling, large segments of the island lost service until that could happen. Water systems operated dependent on generator fuel and parts being made available and then not 24/7, with warning that the mains water was not suitable for drinking, for weeks or months.

From the storm itself as direct causal, there were around 60 recorded fatalities . But multiple studies concluded that around 3,000 people (ranges in the different studies went from 1200 to 4800) died in the aftermath above what would be the normal statistical trend, attributed in their majority to lack of power and communications resulting in unavailability or inability to access medication/procedures/services.

Nobody starved, as such, though as mentioned some people may have gone down from spoiled food/contaminated water, and there was no widespread lawlessness or violence. Of course in this case, we are a population used to preparing for “normal” hurricanes which helped A LOT to prevent it becoming MUCH worse, since most families and businesses were prepared to survive the immediate hit – but that the lights were still out for like 90% of cutomers after a couple of weeks, that was the sign that something was really wrong.

19

There’s some people who won’t be hurting much, at least as far as power goes. People who have battery backup (Tesla Powerwall and similar) plus solar panels might not even notice the outage. Recent outages in Califonia and Texas have greatly increased demand for these systems. Of course, they ain’t cheap, so it’s mostly rich or at least well-to-do who have them.

20

But you did have paper towels…

I vaguely recall something about a flood in ND about 20 years ago, and a fire broke out in the middle of flooded downtown Grand Forks.

I do wonder about food. Yes, a lot of my food requires cooking, and I have a BBQ tied to the natural gas feed, so - I guess I’d find out how much stuff can be eaten raw if you are desperate, have a lot of time and are really hungry. I assume pasta consumed as power beats starving to death, finely sliced raw meat is still food. I think by the time power was restored I’d be over having peanut butter with or without freshly defrosted bread as a snack.