I can’t speculate with any confidence about what would happen beyond a general wave of hysteria among certain groups of people, but I can say for sure I would be watching to see how Lindsey Graham reacts.
FWIW, I disagree completely. Trump has an excellent chance of being elected President in 2024.
Assuming he’s alive he will run.
If he runs, he will win the nomination; nobody else comes close to generating that level of positive excitement among the Rs. No one candidate does, and not even all of them collectively will get even half the nominating votes. Trump will be the R candidate for President if alive.
The R candidate, whoever that is, is guaranteed to carry almost enough states to win the electoral college. Ditto the D candidate, whoever that is, but the R candidate naturally comes closer. That’s built-in by our f***-ed system.
So it all comes down to a small number of swing states. Which will be massively targeted by the R machine, both the legal side and the illegal voter suppression, fake counts, etc., side.
Trump is not a shoe-in; there are ways for the D to win. But this will be a very close race, where small thumbs on small scales may well determine the outcome.

where small thumbs on small scales may well determine the outcome.
Well then, it can’t possibly be Trump. Everyone knows how big his hands are!

FWIW, I disagree completely. Trump has an excellent chance of being elected President in 2024.
Thanks for ruining my day.
Call it DoT Day and people can put stickers everywhere.
I’m not sure Trump’s death would end the populist movement in the GOP. If he loses yet again, they’ll blame it on all the scandal surrounding him. Likely the party will continue to promote things he stood for (anti-regulation, anti-immigration, authoritarian, isolationist) but support candidates not so mired in scandal.

More seriously, would his death have any kind of sobering effect on the party
No, as others have said, he’ll be enshrined as some kind of saint, or maybe even deity.
Were this to happen, I wouldn’t be looking forward to the next 20-30 years of political ‘discourse’ from the MAGA wing of the party, which will, regardless of the issues at hand, boil down to, “None of this would have happened if Trump had become president again!”
Economy goes down? Trump would have made it go up. Economy goes up? Trump would have made it go up by more. The US loses a war? Trump would have won it. The US wins a war? Trump wouldn’t have even had to start it, they’d have just surrendered immediately. None of us get laid? Trump would have gotten us laid. All of us get laid? Trump would have stopped us all from getting herpes and AIDS.
One third of his followers will claim that he is still alive. Another third will say that Biden had him killed. The remaining third will believe both those things simultaneously. Either way, three days later they’ll be very disappointed.

Disagree on Ivanka. I think she’s the smart one among the famous three kids…
That’s sorta like being the skinniest of the McGuire twins.
mmm
There will be dancing in the streets
Has anyone considered what would happen if a major party candidate dies suddenly two or three days before an election?
I understand how the law would bear on the election, I think–the V.P. would be sworn in on Jan. 20 and a new V.P. would be appointed, if the dead POTUS candidate wins the election–but how about if the election is really closely contested and the dead candidate loses by a hair?
What a mess. Unavoidable, but a mess just the same.

To recycle an old Hitler joke, Trump will die on a major American holiday.
Because any day he dies will be declared a major American holiday.
Reminds me of an Anthony Jeselnik joke
I had this cousin. Everybody hated this cousin. My own family hated this cousin. And then a couple of years ago, my cousin fell off of a horse and broke his neck. We all refer to that as “The Superman Incident” because that horse is a hero.

Assuming he’s alive he will run.
If he runs, he will win the nomination; nobody else comes close to generating that level of positive excitement among the Rs. No one candidate does, and not even all of them collectively will get even half the nominating votes. Trump will be the R candidate for President if alive.
Nitpick, he’s already a declared candidate. He’s running. So far, he’s alive. And I agree, he will be the nominee.(barring some legal catastrophe for him in the next 12 months)

but how about if the election is really closely contested and the dead candidate loses by a hair?
What a mess. Unavoidable, but a mess just the same.
That would be a social mess, but not a legal one. Since it happened just before the election, the loss would be attributed to the VP candidate. The narrative would become, “We were all going to vote for Trump, but after he died, a lot of people decided that >insert VP candidate here< just wasn’t a good enough substitute, so they stayed home instead!” So Saintly St. Trump the Anointed One stays on his pillar, and all negative outcomes are piled on VP Scapegoat.
On that Blessed Day I would break open the bottle of Pappy at the back of the liquor cabinet.
On that most glorious of days, no one will be happier than me.
–Melania Trump
ETA:
A presidential aide says to Trump; “Sir, I had a dream about your parade last night.”
“Was it yuge?” Trump asked, visibly interested.
“Oh, yes,” said the aide, “there were millions of cheering people turning out to celebrate all along the streets.”
"Was it tremendous? Trump asked, visibly excited.
“Oh, yes,” the aide replied; “You were in a huge carriage, flanked by all the members of your family and cabinet. They were also very proud and happy, particularly your wife.”
Trembling with excitement and rubbing his little orange hands together, Trump questions the aide: “And tell me, was I looking good?”
The aide replies: “I didn’t know, sir. The casket was closed.”

Vast numbers of people (I’ll let you work out which ones) will be certain that it was an assassination by Biden, almost certainly at the orders of Hugo Chavez.
Surely you mean George Soros? (Chavez died 10 years ago)
That reminds me; I need to see if anybody makes extenders to double the height of a flagpole.
I’ll consult with my staff.
Sure he did.
If that is true, then why is John F. Kennedy still in hiding from Chavez’s assassination squad, huh??