I made a joke, it wasn’t understood, I cleared it up. The immature thing would be to leave him in the dark.
What are you doing up this late anyway?
Oh wait, you’re in Israel. Never mind.
I calim no special knowledge of the region, but my take on the events covered in the news over the last couple of years is that Arafat doesn’t have the same level of absolute command he once did.
I think at this point if you were able to survey avowed members of Hamas that they would not acknowledge Arafat as their unquestioned leader. I think they regard him as an old man who has done some good for them in the past but is no longer “the” voice of the Palestinian cause.
After all, if the folks who founded Hamas thought the PLO was getting them where they wanted to go, they wouldn’t have founded Hamas in the first place. Arafat’s people like to say they are one with Hamas, but at this point, making the world believe he hold some of their reins is the only thing keeping anyone talking to Arafat at all at this point.
Soooooo…
When he dies, Hamas, who I believe has been paying lip service to Arafat for years now out of respect for the authority that Palestinians have for him, will easily be able to become the guiding Palestinian force over any of Arafat’s faceless cronies.
All hell breaks loose as a result.
Actually, neither Hamas, nor the majority of their members, has ever acknowledged Arafat as the Palestinian leader (according to, amongst many, the US State Department).
Hamas was founded before the the Oslo agreement (which established the PA) and the rise of Arafat as the PA leader. The organization didn’t enjoy much support until after the breakdown of the Oslo-agreement in the mid 90s. As for the lipservice thing, I think it has more to with the heat Hamas would feel from ordinary Palestinians if they ever tried to kill Arafat, it would not have been a wise move.
Except that you cannot bribe a government to preside over its own extinction, and that could happen to the Hashemite monarchy if they reannexed the W. Bank. A reunited Cis/Trans-jordan state would BE the Palestinian state, demographically, and while the Monarchy and its Bedouin loyalists can suppress Palestinian unrest in "Trans"jordan, the densely-populated, radicalized, heavily armed, economically depressed Cisjordan would be no easier to pacify for them than it has been for the Israelis – and the Hashemites are not as strong or as economically well off as the Israelis to begin with; plus there’s no reason to believe the Westbankers would be happier pledging their liege to Abdullah. A rerun of Black September with the population of the West Bank available to directly back up the radicals could end up ugly for the Hashemites.
OH! (click!) When you said “Satan will have put a clothespin on his nose”, I thought you meant Satan would be putting a clothespin on ARAFAT’S nose, which struck me as an mildly amusing but not particularly hellish fate.
“You are sentence to an eternity of torment… of having clothespins put on your nose! And cheese shall be sprinkled in your hair! And your shoes shall have velcro instead of laces! And some other mildly annoying stuff! FOREVER!”
Heh. That also struck me as somewhat limp wristed coming from the Prince of Darkness. Red hot pokers in my eye, yep you have got me there. A clothes peg on my nose, nope that is not going to cut it Mr. Beezlebub, sir.
Anyway, all’s clear now.
But the West Bankers would then be politically united with the massive (majority, in fact) Palestinian population in Jordan – under a government which is the closest thing to a democracy in the Arab world. (The king appoints the upper house of Parliament, but the lower house is elected – freely and fairly.) Just by using the power of the vote, they could effectively run the show. Why would they want to rebel against that? I think they would just settle down to being good Jordanians.
That presumes that
(a) The Westbankers’ leaders and opinion-makers want or care to be “good Jordanians” (most evidence points to that they don’t)
(b) The Transjordanian ruling elite are copacetic with the Westbankers “effectively running the show” (hint: depends on who, specifically, is running it and how)
In the best of cases, at the end of the scenario Jordan becomes Palestine and the Hashemite Monarchy sees that as a ticket to early retirement in the Riviera if they’re lucky. The Hashemites HAVE made major movements towards facing the reality of a majority-palestinian Transjordan and the need to build a stable, peaceful, Western-aligned state within that reality (most symbolic element: Queen Rania is a Palestinian). However… do you think that, back in the Territories, Hamas, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs, or even the crumbling remnants of Fatah would willingly pay fealty to Abdullah, and accept his command to forsake the defeat of the Israelis? The Jordanian-Palestinian state would still have to pacify the Territories and render them nonthreatening to Israel; if they can’t, then Israel will launch cross-border pursuit and reprisal raids and we’re back to 1969. Plus how long could you have a functioning semi-democratic Parliament with a fractious representation of parties with their own private armies and an across-the-border agenda, w/o devolving into the Lebanon of 1975-90? The current Jordanian establishment likely feels it’s too much of a risk to take, so they’d decline your “bribe” to take on that mission.
I decided to revive this thread in light of the latest news about Arafat’s failing health: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/ARAFATS_HEALTH?SITE=FLPET&SECTION=HOME