Say what you will about Yasser Arafat, he is the only living symbol of Palestinian nationalism who is recognized as such by most Palestinians. Some Dopers have asserted in this forum that he wants to be dictator of any Palestinian state and would not accept independence on any terms that precluded that. Maybe so. But he’s 75 years old, and I don’t believe he has any subordinates who can command the same widespread recognition. When he passes on . . . how will that change things in Israeli-Palestinian politics?
It probably depends on who wins the power struggle that will follow his death. A moderate’s control of the area will garner a vastly different result than Hamas’ or Islamic Jihad’s control.
Zev Steinhardt
I see it as being pretty much a good thing, insofar as it may actually settle things one way or another. Arafat’s presence means nothing will change. If Hamas takes over, it will be war, because they can not be reasoned with. If a moderate takes over, then things will be settled. It takes a special kind of person to perform the balancing act Arafat has done, and I can’t say they have another. Assuming things go more radical, which they probably will, as the radicals either have more credibility or more arms, then there will be a beatdown and an assumption of control by the Israelis… right. Hell.
Yeah, Arafat’s the last, best chance for peace in the area, but he’s not making any efforts that way.
Suppose nobody “takes over” – that is, no post-Arafat leader emerges whom all the Palestinian factions can more or less agree to more or less follow?
Then, sadly, you have the area degenerate into fighting factions and civil war, and nothing will be settled until someone emerges who can represent the majority of the Palestinians. Why should the Israelis deal with some local warlord who only controls the five square miles around his home base?
Zev Steinhardt
Because they can. Make a separate peace with every warlord, and they might get a better overall deal than they could by dealing with a united Palestinian leadership. And I’ll bet that idea has already occurred to Ariel Sharon.
Well, the little warlords would fall down rather quick no matter what – that 5-sq.mi. guy who makes a separate peace with Israel? Hamas blows him up by next Tuesday. He tries to stand up to Israel? AH64 airstrike on his compound by Monday – and you still end up with a fistful of medium-sized factions, the more radical of whom would go into civil war mode, while at the same time trying to gain standing by still attacking the Israelis.
Satan will have put a clothespin on his nose.
Uh, I’m gonna assume this is bad, or something.
I don’t doubt there are people in Arafat’s inner circle who are ready to pounce into the ring upon his death (and subsequent huge coffin-passing funeral) and that they’ve held little meetings of their own to parcel out responsibility. It’s conceivable to me that one of his deputies is already being groomed for the role, and coupled with a round of post-succession arrests, assassinations and other campaign strategies, he might hold power. For a little while.
I’m sorry, I included ‘Nobody takes over and warlordism happens and anarchy and cats and dogs’ as ‘going more radical’. Which leads to the beatdown and Israel being forced to take over as they are the overall governing body in the area. Or, of course, a bordering country tries, which leads to war on the plain of Meggido again.
For whichever God’s sake, why don’t the Israelis just cede the Gaza Strip to Eqypt and the West Bank to Jordan? Let their governments sort out the mess. At this point, Israel is not particularly afraid of Jordan or Eqypt; they can tolerate the presence of their troops on the Territories’ borders.
You actually think Jordan and Egypt want them back? Why do you think Egypt refused to take Gaza along with the Sinai in 1979?
Let’s bribe them, if that’s what it takes! Guaranteed U.S. aid for Egypt and Jordan for the next 10 years! 20 years! We’ll triple whatever aid they’re getting now! Generous trade treaties! U.S. military support! If only they’ll take over the Territories! Just get this resolved! Settling the Palestinian question once and for all, in some way that involves minimal fighting, no genocide or “ethnic cleansing,” and a likely end to Palestinian terrorism, is worth any price! Let the Jewish settlers stay where they are and be good Egyptians and Jordanians, or let them sell up their property and move to Israel!
Well, that last part is a leeeetle bit tougher than you make it, but besides that, sure. Only thing is, the Egyptians and Jordanians (and other Arabs, too) would still rather the Palestinians be someone else’s problem.
Factions, beyond doubt.
In any One True Cause ( :rolleyes: ), the followers will prefer to harry the heretic rather than defeat the foe or convert the unbeliever.
Every time.
That’s why most One True Causes fail miserably.
Bitter factions to the point of near civil war.
Corruption, power struggles, bitter in-fighting.
Violence and utter poverty.
Hoplessness and despair.
Ya know, just another day.
Interesting idea, that. I wonder what it would take to get Egypt and/or Jordan to accept the areas. More than we’ve got, most likely. But it would be an elegant solution to the problem.
I wrote the following in a previous thread on his topic:
My take on it is that there are several who could succeed Arafat. Would that person emerge as The Leader and unite the Palestinians? I don’t know, but I doubt it. I see multiple conflicts:
[ul]
[li]The role of the President: ceremonial or executive in charge. Arafat enjoys broad powers, but there are ongoing discussions about making the President’s role ceremonial, thereby transferring power to the Parliament. If that happens, it matters less who is President.[/li][li]The Fundamentalists vs The Moderates: Hamas has been very popular in recent years, would they be allowed to participate in a likely election and possibly seize power? Could they control the Parliament? Will Israel allow that?[/li][li]Gaza vs The West Bank. These two territories are not physically connected, and we may witness a stubborn self-governing Gaza (maybe aligning themselves with Egypt), while the PA continues as it has in the West Bank.[/li][/ul]
I’ll pretend you weren’t serious. There’s no way that Israel is going to cede the West Bank to Jordan. For starters, Israel considers Jerusalem their capital city and wants to maintain control of the Jordan Valley. Many Israelis think of Israel as the Greater Israel, and that includes the West Bank. But I’m not surprised that Sharon wants to redraw from Gaza, it’s basically one big slummish city without any strategical advantages whatsoever.
Egypt is, second to Israel, already the largest receiver of US military aid. A more interesting question is what will happen to Egypt when the current head of state dies. AFAIK, three power bases are currently trying to strengthen their posistion in Egypt: the wester-aligned moderates (the son), the security forces, and an emerging religious movement.
In these modern times, and with the eyes of the world on them, the Israeli strategy is to “starve” the Palestinian population to the point where they slowly choose to move out of the West Bank on their own. The occupation has been going on for 37 years and there’s no indication that this will end in the near future. Quite the opposite. The Israeli strategy seems to be:
[ul]
[li]Continue the settling of Israelis inside the West Bank[/li][li]Encapsulating the West Bank from both the west and east side[/li][li]Break down an encapsulated West Bank into enclaves surrounded by Israeli forces[/li][li]Deny the Palestinian parts of the West Bank economic viability by a) hindering import/export with the outside world, and b) using checkpoints to hinder the flow of goods or work force between Palestinian cities[/li][li]Reduce the population by denying reentry for Palestinians who has travelled to Jordan and other Arab countries[/li][/ul]
Nothing is going to change unless the US and Europe agrees upon a strategy or a solution and jointly puts pressure on the parties - which they should given that this conflict fuels the fundamentalists in Arabia like nothing else.
I’ve never seen a smellier looking person in my life. Arafart probably wouldn’t smell good even if he was washed a thousand times.
In other words, he smells so bad that when he goes to Hell, even Satan will have to hold his nose.
Paul, have you noticed that everyone else is trying to have a mature discussion? Yes, Arafat is a scumball. We know that. Let’s move on.