Hello everyone. First post.
Seriously though, how will the U.S. react when the Castro brothers are dead?
Thank you in advance.
I’d say they put some garlic in their mouths and a stake through their hearts, before burying them face down at a cross roads and then driving a herd of muskrats over the grave. Either that or nuke the grave site from orbit, as it’s the only way to be sure…
On the serious side, my WAG is that the system basically falls apart. AFAIK, the Castro’s didn’t exactly encourage or groom competent replacements, and as the highest nails generally got hammered down I don’t think there is anyone in the wings that can take over and keep the crumbling heap going for another few years. I would guess that some sort of ‘communist’ party continues in power, but that it starts to move more in the Chinese direction of ‘communism’ in the post Castro era…or, it could all just fall apart and get swept away for some new dictator or system. Hell, maybe it would even be a representative government that actually IS from the people, though that seems unlikely in the short term. But anything that even remotely looks like a representative government is going to have an easier time in a rapprochement with the US…and once that happens it will be China all over again.
As far as US reactions goes, it’s going to be interesting to see how the Cuban exile community reacts. Especially when the collapse of the Castro government doesn’t lead to their fantasy of being handed back all the money, land and power that they lost.
They also are getting a bit long in the tooth, so I don’t think it will be a major problem, assuming some vague type of ‘democracy’ or representative government emerges. Hell, for that matter, it might be in this new governments best interest to do some sort of compromise and hand back a tiny percentage of what was seized, especially wrt land. They could easily hand back some of the ‘public’ lands and the crumbling ruins that are on them, or do some sort of deal wrt no taxes or other incentives to ex-pats who have claims (it would also be a great way to bring in capital and investment). Once Castro et al are safely in the ground, there are all sorts of possibilities, depending on who takes over afterward, and how willing they are to work with the US. Optimally, it would happen soon, while Obama is still in power, though the way things are going it’s probable that another Dem will be in the White House next time around as well.
If it is, the Cuban version of economic socialism will not be scrapped immediately and probably never will be scrapped entirely.
There was a recent significant change in Cuban politics.
The top dog is the President and his designated successor is the First Vice President. Fidel Castro was the President until he retired. His brother Raul Castro had been the First Vice President and he became President when Fidel retired. Another old time revolutionary, Jose Machado, became First Vice President and appeared to be the designated heir.
Now none of these guys are young. Fidel Castro is 86, Raul Castro is 81, and Jose Machado is 82. So Cuba didn’t appear to have a long term plan.
Then last February, Machado retired and Miguel Diaz-Canel was named as First Vice President. Diaz-Canel is only 53. So it appears he’s been designated as the successor when the Castros die off.
I hope there’s some sort a decent transition to a market economy while preserving a welfare state instead of Cuba becoming a mini-anarcho capitalist paradise like Russia tried to be in the early '90s
I remember reading a long article about Fidel’s potential successors back when he still was in charge. I don’t remember anything (like names) but there was a quite a number of potential replacements (divided, I remember, between the old timers and the new generation), so it seemed that there was no reason to assume the regime would collapse for lack of competent and willing leadership.
I expect deep changes once the Castro brothers leave this world (which sould happen soon), but since not everything is bad about Cuba, I don’t expect the regime to collapse overnight. My bet is that it will turn into a democracy in short order. That’s the only remaining dictatorship in the Americas, after all.
I expect a pseudo market economy, like China. If the new government can implement enough reforms to get the embargo lifted, it could be a game changer in the Caribbean.
Reforms won’t make any difference. What will is the old guard Cuban exiles dying off; they are the driving force behind maintaining the sanctions.
I know several second generation Cuban “exiles”–most of whose families had lived in Mexico or Venezuela before moving to Texas. (Cuban-Canadian Ted Cruz notwithstanding, this state does not have a big Cuban Exile ™ community.)
They are interested in Cuba & have even visited (shocking their elders). With families & careers here, they have no interest in bringing back “the good old day” in Cuba. They would not mind regularizing relations between the countries.
I would guess at this point the % of Cuban-Americans who were wealthy land owners in the 1950s and “want their land back” is a shockingly small percentage of the overall population. Even people who are children of people like that are probably a fairly small percentage of the total Cuban-American population.
Americans get to smoke decent cigars.
Right, but the Cuban-American population generally is not demanding that the sanctions remain in place. Everyone but a few hardliners can see that they haven’t done anything except make the islanders’ lives suck a bit more.
I have to confess that I cannot understand the extreme hard-line sanctions against Cuba, especially after 60+ years and the fall of any real supporting or allied power. It’s one of those things that makes me think there’s got to be another story hidden under the public face… like, Cubanos are all vampire werewolves or something.
I hope they also avoid the pinata, as it has been called in some other LA countries, i.e., privatizing state-owned enterprises into the hands of well-connected government and Party officials.
It would never do to have such concentration of wealth in such a small portion of the population, would it?
Fidel Jr. seems like a bad candidate, but SOMEBODY with blood ties to Fidel or Raul will definitely take over, at least initially.
They’re one-issue voters and for a long time you couldn’t win Florida without them. Not sure that’s still the case; the Puerto Rican community in particular here is now much more politically active.
Let’s hope it’s Alina Fernandez! 