What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes

[Omg_a_Black_Conservative]

@iiandyiiii

I did. For one thing, it’s from different polls. For another, the two together just don’t make sense mathematically, unless one of them is wrong. I guess your view is that the overall result of the CNN poll is inaccurate, but the independents’ results inside the CNN poll is accurate, and the state polls you cited are accurate.

Considering the many polls that show Obama with a decent margin ahead of Romney, I think the CNN poll overall results are pretty accurate. If his overall margin is similar to 08 (and I think the polls show it is, though perhaps a couple of points closer), and the margin for independents is wildly different than 08, then the composition of the electorate must be somewhat different. The logical explanation that fits the data would be that there are more Democrats and/or fewer independents and/or fewer Republicans as compared to 08.

Unless you don’t see most of the overall results of the polls as accurate, then I don’t see another explanation.

No. It means just what I said; they more-than-likely are assuming that Independents will cast a lesser percentage of the votes than they will actually cast in the election. If, for example, CNN assumed that Independents only cast 5% of the total votes, than losing this demographic by 5% would have a minimal effect on the election. It’s actually really simple. You’re assuming that if it’s not X it must be Y when, in fact, the far more likely assumption would be to make that it’s W.

@jsgoddess

Go right to the source!

Interesting, but too bad it has no relation to a single one of my posts-- especially since I’ve never said Romney would win in a landslide. I mean, really. Show me where I said he’d get near 400 EV’s.

(Of course, if it’s true that shows the electorate this year made up of 37.6% Republican voters, 33.3% Democratic voters and 29.2% independent voters then, yeah, Romney would win easily. But I’m a bit skeptical about those demographics.)