… nd he’s got OBama’s chances of victory lower again. It’s not one poll, it’s all of them, as Silver would tell you.
Nobody in the thread wants to mention the Gallup poll today that had Obama’s lead shrunk to one percent. Overall his lead is slim. This is no massacre.
It’s true. Don’t get complacent out there. But the status of the race (and for me 2008 felt like a nailbiter, even though it didn’t end up being one), seems to be better for Obama now than it was four years ago.
Still, plenty of time for shit to go wrong for Obama, and who knows. If that jobs report ends up being disastrous, that could swing the electorate enough.
The national popular vote is irrelevant. Every single person in the South could vote for Romney and it wouldn’t make a difference. There’s a reason Nate puts the Electoral Vote at the top of the page.
I just heard on the radio that three new Fox News polls put Obama up seven points in Virginia and Ohio, and up five in Florida.
You heard right. Not only that, but Obama leads Romney in these crucial categories:
Oh, and about that “enthusiasm gap”:
I thought you guys hated Fox/News polls? 
(Kind of weird to see you guys trot them out whereas you’d be crying foul. But I digress.)
I only clicked on the Florida poll and I can tell you that 42/37/20 is not a likely split at all.
That’s right. I think that on Election day, once we hear that Florida’s 29 EV have gone to Obama, then the election is called on the spot.
What do you think happened to the poll to make it in such error? What do you think of Fox polls, in general? Generally reliable, or not?
I asked my question first?
Nobody “hates” a poll. It’s just taken into context. Some polls seem to show partisan biases, for whatever reason. I think the point is that Fox News polls have traditionally shown a slight Republican lean (although it seems less so to me this election cycle), so it’s especially encouraging (for those of use who are Obama supporters) if those polls are trending left. Now if you see Rasmussen saying the same thing, that really doesn’t bode well for Romney.
I haven’t heard that the Fox News pollsters show any demonstrable bias either way. Rassmussen yes, but Fox no.
If they are biased for Republicans, things are really up shit creek for them, aren’t they?
The nets have an agreement in place not to say that directly until the polls close in CA and WA (OR uses mail). But it will be clear enough from their circumlocutions.
Actually the lead is better than slim, and Nate has re-adjusted the chances of victory higher to 75.2% this evening.
I was thinking Fox had a slight Republican lean.
But let’s say they have a major Republican lean. That would mean that poll from them showing Romney in front is less trustworthy than a poll from them showing Obama in front. I don’t see the shock or surprise in that.
The Now-Cast is an interesting number, with Romney down to 5.6%
Oooo I just clicked on that handy tab, thanks! Very impressive for Obama.
I don’t follow polling closely enough to have an opinion that matters about it, I’ve heard Rasumussen leans predictably right, I would have suspected Fox likewise. I only deliberately look at 538 so I guess that’s what I trust most.
Why not wait for Alaska and Hawaii? Or do polls happen to close in both states at an earlier local hour than in CA and WA?
The honest answer is that nobody cares about Alaska and Hawaii so the networks don’t have to either.
And a 4-point swing towards Obama in Rasmussen tracking this morning to O+2, after a 1-point move towards him yesterday. It seems the 47% remark may be moving at least one poll (which also happened to be the only one showing a Romney lead).
Brings the RCP average back up to O+3.3. It will be interesting to see if Gallup follows over the next few days (it moves slower because it’s a 7-day tracker instead of 3-days).
Of course, the nets are irrelevant now in the Internet age.