Alaska +3 to Romney
Hawaii +4 to Obama
There. Now we don’t have to wait.
Especially since their EVs are pretty much taken for granted in the Presidential contest, with Alaska in the GOP column, and Hawaii going Dem, in anything short of a Johnson-Goldwater, Nixon-McGovern, or Reagan-Mondale landslide.
Of course, the way the Dems have come to own the West Coast states, they might as well call the Presidential election as soon as the polls in all the Rocky Mountain states close.
In 2008, I was watching network election coverage and biting my nails because they kept reporting states being won by McCain and discussing his chances. At 6:30 p.m. Pacific, I clicked on the SDMB and instantly learned that Obama had already won the election. Of course, that wasn’t announced by the networks for another 90 minutes.
True enough. But Hawaii has a fairly interesting senate race this year. And every senator counts.
I think the point is this: Immediately after the polls close in CA and WA, the networks will announce that their electoral votes have been won by Obama. They’ll know it from the exit polls, but of course it’s a foregone conclusion. At that point the total electoral votes from all the called races will be enough to put Obama over the top, and so that’s when they’ll announce that he’s won re-election.
That’s what happened in 2008.
By the way, WA does all of its ballots exclusively by mail now as well. You can drop it off somewhere locally, but the ballots are mailed to registered voters who then can mail the completed ballot in or find somewhere legit to drop it off.
Nate’s adjusted Obama’s chance of win Nov. 6 Forecast to 76.1%
Reality is falling in to line with 538. Intrade lags a bit, but is catching up.
The Nov 6 forecast is now 84%/%16 - Obama. Intrade is 77%/23% - Obama. Vegas odds are closer to 66% Obama but there is a house bias.
538 gives the Senate to the Dems. The interesting thing will be to see how the model handles the House. Although unlikely, the Dems could take it back.
Crane
I’m curious as to what you mean by this.
The thing to remember is that Vegas doesn’t try to predict the outcome. It’s only focus is to even out the amount of money put on both sides of the bet.
Z,
In Vegas betting. Obama is the odds-on favorite.
Crane
Yes, but what I’m saying is that you shouldn’t look at the Vegas odds as being predictive. It’s not their purpose. The odds are set (and maintained as much as possible) to ensure that money splits evenly on both sides. Vegas odds don’t care who wins. They want the losing gamblers to cancel out the winning gamblers. That leaves them with the vig which is always a winner (if you’re the book-maker).
Now, as it happens in this case, it seems like Vegas has started to align with the predictive models, but they could just as easily be moving the other way and, as long as the money split remained near even, the bookie would be perfectly happy.
I didn’t think that they could take money on elections in Vegas. I have heard of some offshore books that took action on elections.
Z,
Perhaps so, but that’s still the way you bet.
In any case the predictive models strongly point toward an Obama victory.
Crane
Well now I feel pretty silly, given that Romney is currently struggling to keep above the 1% mark.
I don’t think Nate Silver makes predictions about the House of Representatives.
Now now, don’t exaggerate. As of today, Romney is close to cracking 2% in the “Now Cast” estimate.