I’m somewhat channelling Clancy’s The Sum of All Fears here.
Suppose an Israeli airbase were conducting a practice drill with a real nuke. Suppose that during the drill, that base were attacked by missiles from Gaza. Key personnel are injured or killed. The planes are scrambled into the air, and are then tasked with a revenge bombing on Gaza.
Oops.
What now? Looking at it dispassionately, then it’s clearly a cock-up and self-inflicted, but who would be dispassionate in the aftermath?
Sweet fuck all. Its unlikely anyone is going to do more than a symbolic scolding. No one has much of a desire to go to war over this.
The US finds some excuse (they would find one even if it was purposeful) Europe condemns…
Cancer rates would rise in Israel.
Several generals would resign, as well as possibly the Minister of Defense, some officers would go to jail, and the Air Force would undergo an in-depth overhaul of its operating procedures.
As far as international relations are concerned, I have no idea. I can see Israel accepting hundreds of thousands of Gazan refugees, which would of course lead to quite a few other problems.
That’s a knotty mess. The good news is that unlike most hypothetical nuclear crises, there isn’t much urgency. After the news hurtles around the world nobody needs to do anything right now.
The Gazans can’t counter-nuke, lacking the technology. Everybody else can choose to jaw, posture, or sabre-rattle. I’m pretty sure this would silence the “moderate Arab Muslim” faction in any debates for the next 50-100 years. IOW: no matter how thoroughly the West came to believe it was truly a mishap, not a plot disguised as a mishap, pretty much everybody in the Arab Muslim world would not. And suitable revenge would be plotted with massively renewed vigor by a wide array of state and non-state actors.
So my vote is the immediate aftermath will be a lot of hot air from the UN, the AQAP, and every level in between. In the 10-50 year term this mistake greatly increases the odds of a genocidal attempt against Israel by somebody.
Along the way, depending on the state of US domestic politics on the day in question, the US might decide Israel was just too much of a loose cannon to support as much as we do. If so, our official stance might slide a lot closer to that of the Europeans: impatience over religious and political extremism buffered by tolerance based on shared culture & democratic norms.
OTOH, the US’s “Dead Muslims! F**k yeah!” contingent might be in the ascendant on that fateful day, in which case the US might double down on supporting Israel against all comers, be they armed with hot air or hot weapons.
How much damage to Israel would a nuclear strike on Gaza do? It’s not like it’s on the other side of the world.
Regards,
Shodan
Major problem for Israel politically. They’d lose the support of some countries in Europe, and the neighboring Muslim states would use that as an excuse to build their own nuclear arsenals with the help of sympathetic countries (cash induced sympathy most likely). Say goodbye to the NPT.
Looks like prevailing winds are from the southeast across Israel into the Med, so fallout might be much of an issue for them. Might suck to be Cyprus, though.
Turkey, Greece, Albania …
Obviously you don’t conduct drills with the real ones. That’s why you have drill dummies.
Haven’t there been U.S. errors of that kind? No, not nuking Tijuana, but mistaking a live warhead for a dummy warhead?
We also dropped one on Spain, but it wasn’t armed…
…and what if some of them had some accidents back…?
“Hey, these things happen.” [SIZE=“1”]- Needful Things, 1993[/SIZE]
Albania has nukes?!?
The most recent [is it live or is it Memorex?] goof-up was 2007 United States Air Force nuclear weapons incident - Wikipedia
We also dropped a live one on Georgia. The state, not the country. 1958 Tybee Island mid-air collision - Wikipedia To be sure, the days of deliberately flying around with live weapons on board in peacetime is long over. So those sorts of mishaps are vastly less likely today.
What I would suggest
Secure whats left of the parking lot, and emplace a soviet frog missile launcher , complete with the atomic ribbit and point fingers at Iran, even if they are innocent of this. Admitting that it was accidental at this point, is stupid, there is no real upside. As soon as the burned remains start to show up on CNN and youtube, your going to be expecting an over reaction, and sorry is not gonna cut it. Dial up the Iranian targets and launch, as if that were supposed to be the decapitation strike and your expecting follow up strikes.
Declan
Where’s our picture of Kirsten Dunst holding a puppy? :rolleyes:
That’s some real supervillain shit there, Declan. I’m going to count on Jack Ryan foiling your efforts.
Or maybe Jack Bauer…
I’ll be in my Volcano
Declan