I’m confused. The US has military bases in Turkey which is right next to Russia. A very close and present danger - to Russia.
So the US keeps Mexico out because we’re enemies and might go to war? Wouldn’t both being members lessen the risk of conflict? Mexico has even been buying military equipment from the US lately.
Nobody thinks the US or NATO is going to invade Russia. Russia knows this full well. Lots of countries quite rightly fear living next to Russia. Everybody knows that, too.
Why would Russia want bases in Mexico? They can handle their ELINT and SIGINT without a fixed base in the region, and they simply are not interested in an arms build-up in the region or in controlling countries in the region. Quite simply, there is no need for Russia to develop military interests in the region because it has no interest in the region the way is does have various interests in the regions surrounding its borders.
It is to Mexico’s advantage to simply wait out Trump, and to continue to develop trade with other countries.
Whether Mexico were or were not a member of NATO would not make any difference if Trump wanted to go wage war against Mexico, simply because no NATO nation would support such a war regardless of whether Mexico were or were not part of NATO, and no NATO nation would go to war against the USA, regardless of whether Mexico were or were not part of NATO. The pressure put on Trump and the USA would be great, regardless of NATO memberships.
Of the two, I’d rather have the Russian military base. You can reason with the Russians.
Mexico prevents about 90K illegal Central American immigrants from transiting Mexico and crossing illegally over into the USA each year. If Trump puts financial sanctions on the Mexico because Mexico refuses to pay tribute to him via his wall, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mexico dramatically cuts back on funding its own Southern Border Program rather than inviting in the Russians, and thereby leaves Trump to deal with a further 90K illegals per year to catch and deal with.
Regarding a fight in Europe, Mexico just doesn’t have the capabilities to send more than a token force. And why would they care if there’s another Balkan war?
Regarding a fight in N. America, there’s the OAS and other treaties that provide mutual assistance.
They have enough crap to deal with. They don’t need to go looking for more.