I put “endorses” in quotes for a reason. I don’t think ObL will actually come out and say: “Vote for Kerry”. But I think he might issue a statement telling Americans to “consider the consequences of your vote” and “prepare for more terror attacks if you re-elect Bush”.
So, it would be a “backdoor endorsement”, or a threat to retaliate if Bush wins in November.
The question is: How would this affect the outcome of the election? Since this election is expected to be pretty damn close, could this be eough to tip it one way or the other? If so, which way (towards Bush or Kerry)?
I really don’t want to get into whether or not Americans **should ** base their votes on any threats from ObL (I don’t believe we should), but whether enough Americans **would ** do so.
I think it could tip the election in favor of Bush. Americans generally hate to be told what to do. If it appeared that ObL preferred to have Kerry in office, I think it would turn enough people off to him (Kerry) that he’d lose the election.
As a secondary topic: I am pretty confident that ObL will try in some way or other to make an impact on the Nov presidential election in the US. If you agree, what tactics do you think he will employ and towards what end? How does Nader fit into the equation?
I think there would be a huge voter turn out first of all. I think probably such a threat would be a big boost for Kerry. Partly the result would depend on when the threat was made. If it were made after the time limit for voters to register, it might not improve the voter turn out past historical levels. If it were made fairly soon, however, I think many more people would register and vote. If anything like that happens, it would certainly upset the pollsters predictions.
I remember a few years ago (ok, several) when Arizona was debating internally instituting a Martin Luther King Holiday that we started getting all kinds of flack from out of state. We lost the super bowl or some such thing. It pissed a lot of people off. I’m not saying that the proposal went from heavily favored to defeated, but actions that were percieved as “outsider interference” certainly seemed to tip the balance.
Kerry would be screwed if there was even a hint that ObL was ‘endorsing’ him. I think American’s would be outraged that someone was trying to manipulate them, and the threats would just get most Americans anger, not fear. For that matter, if AQ decides to try an attack in November to do what THEY think they did in Spain, i.e. influence the election, they will get a fairly large surprise, as depending on the situation that might be the only sure fire way of Bush getting re-elected.
Perhaps Osama means what he says, and he actually wants Kerry to win. Maybe he thinks Kerry is weaker on terrorists, so a Kerry Administration will make is easier to achieve his goals. If this is what’s going on, he must believe that he can scare Americans into backing away. Any idiot who knows anything about our country knows this is not the case. As evil as Osama is, he’s not stupid. He knows that America is not Spain.
I think the most likely thing to believe from the OP is that Osama Bin Ladin is using reverse psychology to get his way. If he publicly endorses Kerry, maybe he’s really rooting for Bush because he knows a certain percentage of Americans will vote for Bush just to “spite” Osama. This works wonderfully and Bush wins like Bin Ladin wants him to. Osama could conceivably desire Bush to be President because Bush so wonderfully personifies everything that the middle east hates about the west (the arrogant cowboy attitude, “we’re america, we can do whatever the hell we want” etc) and Bush remaining President makes it easier for him to recruit new Al-Qaeda operatives.
Either way, if you allow your vote to be influence in any way by what a terrorist, you are just playing right into their hands.
Kerry is off to a good really start, Chappaquiddick Ted, Stern ( 70% disapproval rating ), Imus ( 1% rating, all senile ), Kim Jong Il (not quite as bad as Stern for unfavorable ratings ). I think UBL would be a “plus” to this line up … :rolleyes:
I read somewhere (sorry, can’t find a cite) that Bin Ladin has been quoted as saying that Kerry’s election would be more dangerous for his movement, because he would be (and I’m -broadly- paraphrasing here) be sneakier in opposing al Quaeda, and Bush is a great recruiting tool for their movement.
So, in essence you’re saying that you’ve read where Osama seems to be endorsing Bush!! That while Bush makes him stronger Kerry would be ‘sneakier’ and thus more dangerous to him? Was there anything in that quote that you recall as Osama’s reason for these conclusion? He said that when and by what method? Maybe it will help locate this quote. Was it in one of his videos? An Osama press release? I would love to see the cite if anyone can locate. THIS IS GREAT NEW!!
If this happened, I would expect Kerry to respond with more outrage and vicious invective than we’ve seen in a political race in a long time, and I would expect that the overall effect would be nil: the few voters who would be turned off by voting alongside ObL would be balanced by the few voters who would be impressed at Kerry’s violent rejection of the endorsement.
I expect that certain aspects of our War on Terrorism have become effective recruiting glurge.
On this count, I suspect that aQ and “affiliated” groups have ben glad of having GWB in office. The WH has done its fair share of promoting the al Qaeda[sup][size=1]TM[/siz][/sup] brand name.
I’d imagine if ObL prefers anyone, its Bush. He is focusing his war on terrorism much more broadly than just him and his organization. By November it will have been three years since the WTC attacks and he very well could still be uncaptured. How can that be anything but good in his view?
Bush has also created greater instabilty in the world, the perfect time to get disgruntled people pissed off at America to join a cause like his. Europe is, by and large, against America now, even in some political channels.
I have no idea what effect him endorsing one or the other would be. I’d imagine both sides would tell America not to base their decisions on what a terrorist says and there would probably be some balance in people switching sides.
I think you draw the opposite conclusion as me from the Arizona parallel. People don’t mind being bribed but they hate being blackmailed. If OBL threatened us if we re-elected Bush I think a lot of people would send him a big “screw you” by voting Republican.
Yes. It wasn’t Bin Laden per se, though. Couldn’t access the original news report (in the aftermath of the Spain attack), but here is an excerpt posted on a blog:
I will see your cut and paste and raise you one — But first I was really hoping that someone would have found the above mention quote from Osama himself. The one where Osama indicates that he likes Bush but fears Kerry’s sneakiness. I haven’t been able to find that. Anyway, here are two more opinions on which of the candidates Osama fears and which he feels a sort of kinship with.
Well no – it appears they really want Kerry to win. See the link to a blog just after my post. The blog link showing a post by a guy named “Mike Thomas.” Thomas’ link contains an expired link to Yahoo as its source. According to Thomas that link indicates that an al Queda group endorces Bush ---- But why? Well, because “Kerry will kill our nation while it sleeps because he and the Democrats have the cunning to embellish blasphemy and present it to the Arab and Muslim nation as civilization.”
Hey, that’s good enough for me. Kerry and the Demos are a race of Supermen! Apparently al Queda has found this out and now they’ve decided to inform the rest of us -