What if the 1918 influenza were to break out today in twenty or thirty people in a crowded population center? (Which I assume is similar to how it started to become an epidemic in 1918.)
Would it be just as devestating? Or can we treat the symptoms more effectively today, such that it wouldn’t be such a big deal?
Er wuut?
-FrL-
I don’t think they knew enough about the flu’s killing mechanism to be sure our knowledge and better practices are enough. The Spanish flu was so dangerous in that it killed people who were perfectly healthy (flu usually only kills the sick and weak).
Since even the most mild flu season results in thousands of deaths (the CDC figures I can find is that it routinely kills 36K people in the US a year), any increase in the mortality rate is something to worry about. Even if a new strain can be treated better now than in 1918 (which killed more people in a shorter time than any epidemic in history), the death toll is going to be very high.
A few suggested reasons why the 1918 flu was so deadly:
It was not taken seriously at the start. When it got started, a common reaction was, “Oh, it’s just the flu.”
Inadequate quarantine. One of the suspected “case zero” locations was a military base in the U.S. The infected soldiers were shipped out, worldwide, anyway.
Modern antibiotics were not available. Many deaths were due to secondary infections.
No flu vaccines of any kind. This is not to say that the same virus would not cause many deaths today, especially in the less developed parts of the world. However, if an illness of this sort were to break out somewhere, today’s reactions would be quite different.
A great book on this outbreak is The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History by John M. Barry. Just reading the reviews in Amazon gives you an idea of some of the issues involved.
From Publishers Weekly:
Yes, the movement of US Army recruits probably made the 1918 epidemic much worse. Not only did the movement spread the virus, it put burdens on the local hospitals where the recruits were housed. Very few areas escaped the flue-it even spread to remote villages in Alaska. There were one or two Pacific islands that escaped-because they observed a rigid quarantine.
The actual virus (or at least, its descendants) is, according to National Geographic’s issue on influenza, among some of the milder flu viruses out there.
If it were truly the same 1918 virus it would probably be thought to be something entirely new.
An intern, friend of mine, at an Osteopathic Hospital in a large nothern city in the 40’s passed a group of MD standing around a young patient that had been brought in. As he passed he exclaimed “Oh. Smallpox!”
He was asked how he knew when they didn’t. He had seen one case in CA a few year previous and had no doubts.
Smallpox is back?
From Spingears, bolding mine, quote:
An intern, friend of mine, at an Osteopathic Hospital in a large nothern city in the 40’s passed a group of MD standing around a young patient that had been brought in. As he passed he exclaimed “Oh. Smallpox!”
Wow, I can’t believe I missed that. I’m clearly not on top of my game today. I think a nap is in order.
The avian & spanish flu kill by causing your immune system to go into overload, sending too many inflammatory chemicals and immune cells to your lung. Eventually you suffocate internally due to your own immune system. It is called the cytokine storm. If we can prevent that then the avian flu probably won’t be very deadly.
Milder for most of us. Most of then hypothetical grandchildren that would have descended from the disease’s victims would likely find it pretty bad.
Make that “Most of the hypothetical grandchildren…”
In a sentence that complex, you’ve really got to watch your tupos.
The 1918 pandemic was famed for killing mostly the young and healthy, and this is why. People with strong immune systems would get this condition, where as those with weakended systems (very young & old) would survive as long as they didn’t get secondary pneumonia.
I also read John Barry’s book, and it was excellent. I had no idea how much politics contributed to the pandemic.
That doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Can anyone explain to me how we could protect against the 1918 flu any better today than they could then? You can’t cure a virus. I suppose better ER and ICU techniques could pump people full of fluids an treat secondary infections but what about when those resources are overwhelmed.
We are more crowded now and international trade and travel could transmit it all over the globe in a very short time. Many of those places aren’t much better off then than now.
What tools do we have that would make it much better especially considering the greatly enhanced transmission rates we would face?
The theory I’ve heard is that the older generation had been exposed to some other strain of flu early on in their lives that was (obviously) less pathogenic, but was similar enough to the 1918 strain that it provided some immunity. Sort of a natural, accidental vaccine.
I assume that all of us today carry immunity to the 1918 flu virus-how many generations does this last for? I was worried when I read that scientists had exhumed frozen human bodies from the Alaskan permafrost (so they could exam.ine the 1918 virus. Could doing this unleash a new epidemic? Were the 1918 virus samples (from the bodies) still capable of reproduction?
Flu of 1918 was super contagious.
Old saying from that time “Open the window and influenza”
And super deadly in many cases. My own mother caught it at about the age of 10 accidentally violating quarantine and passing her older, sick-with-the-flu sister in the hallway for a second going to the bathroom------
-----My mom survived. Her older sister, aged 18, formerly healthy as a horse, caught it and died. I think healthy immune systems definitely made it worse.
Very strange bug that one was. --------If you are healthy you are sure to die.
Maybe that will be our saving grace today if the 1918 flu strikes again. ----
----Most of us are overweight, eat poorly, exercise rarely and are certainly most unhealthy------compared to those living in 1918.
Immunity to the flu does not carry on from generation to generation. If you were alive in 1918, contracted the flu, and survived, you’re immune. Everyone else would be at risk.
Thanks for the info. I always figured I had some natural immunity from the 1918 flu-----because my mother caught it when she was 8 and survived—and lived to be 89, so there were no bad long term effects for her.
Possibly just good ones for her long term. My Dad was the same age, never caught the 1918 flu, but died at the surprisingly young age of 73
Guess I was wrong about me having any personal natural immunity. Oh well. Live and learn.