What if Yitzhak Rabin had never been assassinated?

[BrainGlutton]

This is a “what-if” thread about a tragic lost chance in recent history.

In 1993, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (Labor Party) and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat negotiated the Oslo Peace Accords – :

The principles agreed were, in essence, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and the Palestinian right to self-government within those areas through the creation of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian rule would last for a five year interim period during which permanent status would be negotiated (beginning not later than May 1996). Permanent issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, Israeli settlements in the area, security and borders were deliberately excluded from the Accords and determined as not prejudged. The interim self-government was to be granted in phases. Until a final status accord was made, West Bank and Gaza would be divided into three zones:

Area A - full control of the Palestinian Authority.
Area B - Palestinian civil control, Israeli military control.
Area C - full Israeli control.
Together with the principles the two groups signed Letters of Mutual Recognition - The Israeli government recognized the PLO as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people while the PLO recognized the right of the state of Israel to exist and renounced terrorism, violence and its desire for the destruction of Israel.

In addition to the first accord, namely the Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government, other more specific accords are often informally known as Oslo. The Interim Agreement on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (also called Oslo 2), signed in September 1995 which gave the Palestinians self-rule in Bethlehem, Hebron, Jenin, Nablus, Qalqilya, Ramallah, Tulkarm, and some 450 villages.

For this achievement, Rabin and Arafat were awarded the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize. Everything seemed on track to, at long last, create an independent Palestinian state and bring some peace and stability to the Levant.

Then, on November 4, 1995, Rabin, while attending a peace rally in Tel Aviv, was assassinated by Yigal Amir, a right-wing Zionist activist. Rabin’s successor, Shimon Peres, called early elections for May 1996 – and lost them to the Likud Party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu. And after that, everything went to shit, where it remains to this day. Netanyahu’s administration markedly slowed down implementation of the Oslo Accords. The Palestinians began a second Infitada, known as the al-Aqsa Infitada, in 2000 – and it still continues.

Suppose Amir had missed, or been caught before he got to the rally? What would the situation be like today in Israel and Palestine?

[BrainGlutton]

Sorry, flubbed a link – the above quote about the Oslo Accords came from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_Accords.

[BrainGlutton]

And here’s another thought: If the Oslo Accords had been implemented as planned, how would that have affected international terrorism? Would al-Qaeda have grown as big? Would the 9/11 attacks have happened?

Goddamn Amir.

[astorian]

Since Osama Bin Laden has never given a rat’s behind about the Palestinian Arabs, and his actions have never had anything to do with their plight, yes, the 9/11 attacks would have happened anyway.

Ultimately, I think Arafat would have frittered away his opportunities to make real peace with Rabin, just as he did with Barak.

[BrainGlutton]

@astorian

Since Osama Bin Laden has never given a rat’s behind about the Palestinian Arabs, and his actions have never had anything to do with their plight, yes, the 9/11 attacks would have happened anyway.

Maybe he doesn’t give a rat’s ass, but I think the plight of the Palestinians is something he can use as a recruiting tool for al-Qaeda. And there are other terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, who are primarily interested in Palestine, and whose appeal, and danger, might be diminished if the Palestinians had a state by now.

[astorian]

IF Arafat really wants a state. His actions in negotiations with Barak make me think he doesn’t. And from a practical standpoint, I can see why he WOULDN’T want a reasonable, peaceful settlement.

I come from an Irish family, a hardcore Fenian family from way back when. Irishmen like those of my grandfather’s generation get weepy and sentimental while singing about the Croppy Boy (martyred leader of a pointless, stupid futile revolution that accomplished nothing), Young Roddy McCorley (martyred leader of another pointless, stupid futile revolution that accomplished nothing), Sean South of Garryowen (another martyred idiot who led a stupid, futile raid that accomplished nothing).

But if you’d mentioned Michael Collins (who helped win independence for 26 of 32 Irish counties, who actually GOT most of what Irish rebels had always said they wanted) around them, you’d have heard him cursed as a traitor and sellout. To old Irishmen like my grandfather, Michael Collins was a quisling who DESERVED his assassination!

Old Irishmen were a lot like modern Arabs. They turn dead idiots who accomplished nothing into Glorious Martyrs, but scorn people who deliver something tangible, but less than they hoped for.

After decades of promising to drive the Jews into the sea, if Arafat came to his people and proclaimed “Good news- I’ve gotten us an independent state with 85% of the West Bank and a sliver of Jerusalem as our capital,” would the Palestinians celebrate, or would they brand him a sellout and kill him?

Michael Collins could answer that question fr us, but Arafat already knows the answer. I DON’T think he’s any longer the bloodthirsty monster he once was. But right now, he’s something just as bad: a feeble, pathetic has-been of a dictator, trying to hold on to the position and perks he has. He knows he’d be a dead man if he ever tried to make real peace, and he just doesn’t want to chance it.

He fiddled and diddled with Barak, and finally decided that no deal was the best deal for him. It would have been no different with a living Rabin.