What is going to swing undecided voters this (US President) election?

[Roderick_Femm]

Some thoughts, followed by the questions and I hope some general discussion:

This presidential election seems more polarizing than any I can remember (back to 1956, although I didn’t have much understanding until 1968).

Both nominees have very strong negatives, and also strong support. Their partisans won’t hear anything bad about them, and the other side’s partisans won’t hear anything good about them. Maybe this is always the case, but this time it seems somehow intensified.

Among those who don’t like one or the other, Trump seems to inspire fear, while Hillary seems to inspire hatred. I wonder which motive is stronger?

So who are the undecided? And are they undecided between the two candidates, or are they undecided between holding their nose and voting their party, or not voting at all?

Evangelicals and right wing types may be assuaged by the choice of Pence as VP candidate, especially considering the rumor that he will have some sort of control over domestic and foreign policy (i.e. COO to Trump’s Chairman of the Board). How many of them are truly disaffected by Trump and his manifest faults?

Less conservative Republicans might be glad that Trump isn’t toeing the right-wing party line, especially on social issues, but they also seem to feel more free to desert the Republican party, at least temporarily, because they can’t stomach Trump.

On the Democratic side, disaffected Bernie supporters may stay home, but I honestly can’t see them voting for Trump in any useful numbers. There doesn’t seem to be any other groups of Democrats who aren’t supporting Hillary 100%.

Then there are the independent voters. I have no idea what independent voters think or what they are likely to do. Are most of them still undecided? I’m having trouble finding any very comprehensive polls. Maybe it’s too soon.

FiveThirtyEight is showing a 60% chance of Hillary winning the electoral vote by about 40 votes, and the popular vote by around 2%. That prediction may improve a little if she gets any convention bump at all. But I’m still worried about what is going to drive the uncommitted, independent voters.

What do you think?

[silenus]

@Roderick_Femm

So who are the undecided? And are they undecided between the two candidates, or are they undecided between holding their nose and voting their party, or not voting at all?

This. the big issue is going to be GOTV, as usual. But I wouldn’t trust any poll numbers until late October, if then. Too many variables yet.

[Roderick_Femm]

For those playing in the non-acronym seats, that’s Get Out The Vote (I had to look it up).

So, then, is a GOTV effort ever going to be effective when you are fighting, not apathy or inertia, but active dislike or disgust? Frankly (from a biased perspective) I can see this working better for the Democrats, due to the actual fear of a Trump win, than for the Republicans. Fear trumps hate (or strong dislike, which I think is more likely) in my opinion.

I don’t disagree about the timing of the polls, that was more for background than anything else.

[RivkahChaya]

An article just came out in the New Yorker, in which Trump’s ghostwriter for The Art of the Deal confesses that he is experiencing some bad feelings about his role in Trump’s fame, because it’s his fame that he’s ridden to the nomination.

The ghostwriter, whose last name is Schwartz (IIRC), says that Trump has a really short attention span, and he thinks he is so ill-suited for the presidency, it’s frightening. The guy talks about the book-writing process, and how uncooperative Trump was with interviews, because he’d get bored very quickly, so the writer eventually arranged just to follow Trump around and observe him. The book, he confesses, is a pack of lies, meant to flatter Trump, and not present an accurate picture of him.

I think this article could turn truly undecided voters to Clinton, and maybe wake up apathetic voters. It might not affect “undecided” people who are Trump-leaning, other than to make them choose not to vote at all. But anyone who really, genuinely doesn’t know what to do, and reads this, I don’t think could then possibly go vote for Trump.

Hardcore supporters will just dismiss it-- they’ll probably say things like, “Was he lying then, or is he lying now?” even though he had a big financial motivation to lie then, and the disinclination to do so now (Trump has threatened to sue him for libel, but apparently the suit has gone nowhere, which makes me think the guy has truth as a defense).

Anyway, how influential the article ultimately is, is how it, forgive me for using the word as a verb “trends.” If it goes, so to speak, “viral,” (I’m not sure whether a print article can do that, but I guess people can send links). If the article really gets around, it could be quite influential, but being a print article, it might also die in the bud, and have very little influence.

It just came out. We have three months for links to get cut and pasted, and the author to grant interviews.

ETA: The article is online.

[Jonathan_Chance]

@Roderick_Femm

For those playing in the non-acronym seats, that’s Get Out The Vote (I had to look it up).

So, then, is a GOTV effort ever going to be effective when you are fighting, not apathy or inertia, but active dislike or disgust? Frankly (from a biased perspective) I can see this working better for the Democrats, due to the actual fear of a Trump win, than for the Republicans. Fear trumps hate (or strong dislike, which I think is more likely) in my opinion.

I don’t disagree about the timing of the polls, that was more for background than anything else.

GOTV is, simply put, the key to every election. Both sides focus on getting their likely voters out during election season - not day anymore with early voting - and hope the other side screws up.

It can’t be underestimated. Barring a groundswell election, GOTV is key.

[China_Guy]

GOTV is something that the Clintons know how to do, and have a machinery in place. On the other hand, Trump doesn’t seem to have built much of anything (lifetime or this election season).

I would also point out I think the media and especially those on the right are painting a false equivalency. Voters dislike Trump and Hillary. That said, I think poll numbers back up that voters dislike Trump significantly more than they dislike Hillary, and the corollary is true that a lot more voters (and much more diverse voters like women, minorities, gays and educated white males) like Hillary more than those that like Trump (aging uneducated white males). Methinks the demographics, especially if anecdotal stories of Latino legal immigrants getting citizenship, registering to vote, and then actually turn out to vote in states like Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and hell even Texas might swing some states to make it mathematically impossible for Trump to win.

[kaylasdad99]

I don’t think you can overstate the electronic media’s strong incentive to make it look like a horse race, even though it’s not.

[RivkahChaya]

@China_Guy

GOTV is something that the Clintons know how to do, and have a machinery in place. On the other hand, Trump doesn’t seem to have built much of anything (lifetime or this election season).

I would also point out I think the media and especially those on the right are painting a false equivalency. Voters dislike Trump and Hillary. That said, I think poll numbers back up that voters dislike Trump significantly more than they dislike Hillary, and the corollary is true that a lot more voters (and much more diverse voters like women, minorities, gays and educated white males) like Hillary more than those that like Trump (aging uneducated white males). Methinks the demographics, especially if anecdotal stories of Latino legal immigrants getting citizenship, registering to vote, and then actually turn out to vote in states like Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and hell even Texas might swing some states to make it mathematically impossible for Trump to win.

There are an awful lot of people who are children of Hispanic immigrants who are citizens because they were born here, but have felt disenfranchised their whole lives, and have never bothered to vote, who may just decide that this election is personal, and go register. I base this on the number of Hispanic people I went to basic training with who had never voted despite being well over 18 (some as old as 26) who said they realized how important it was going to be to start voting now that they were in the military. If they were in the guard or reserve, they said registering was the first thing they were going to do when they got home, while regular army were going to the chaplain for advice on how to register.

I think many of us vote because we follow our parents’ example-- election day was practically a holiday in my house. My father was a precinct committeeman, and I was a poll book holder and watcher from the time I was 10 (jobs you didn’t have to be 18 to do). We watched the returns like some people watch that football game for the bowl. I registered to vote on my 18th birthday. Now some people might not have been that involved, but my point is that children of immigrants who were not citizens, whether they were legal or not, never had the opportunity to see their parents go off to vote, and to think of voting as a rite of passage.

The result is a sort of ennui about voting. But this election may shake them out of it.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@China_Guy

I would also point out I think the media and especially those on the right are painting a false equivalency. Voters dislike Trump and Hillary.

There’s an additional factor: many voters dislike both Trump & Clinton. But they also think Trump is unqualified to be President. They may dislike Hillary too, but far fewer say she isn’t qualified to be President.

So that gives the Democrats an easier task: they just have to persuade people who dislike them both to still get out and vote. Because they are more likely then to choose the one they consider more qualified.

[DerekMichaels00]

terrorism and foreign policy could swing them. See this recent July 13-16 CNN Poll which shows that Trump has decent leads on ISIS and terrorism for a guy with zero gov experience, tho Hillary has leads on foreign policy, which in light of The Donald’s NATO comments, could hurt him.

[TriPolar]

Fear and hate will drive undecided voters this year. For some it will be fear of terrorism or hate of immigrants, but mostly it will be fear and hate of one of the candidates.

[DoctorJ]

David Sedaris said this in 2008, but it’s more true now than ever:

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

People who can’t decide if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would be a better President aren’t going to be swung with factual information or reason. I think you have to treat the true undecided voters as random and not worry about them too much.

[DSeid]

@t-bonham@scc.net

There’s an additional factor: many voters dislike both Trump & Clinton. But they also think Trump is unqualified to be President. They may dislike Hillary too, but far fewer say she isn’t qualified to be President.

So that gives the Democrats an easier task: they just have to persuade people who dislike them both to still get out and vote. Because they are more likely then to choose the one they consider more qualified.

That’s clearly a contributor to the decision for Kaine.

A significant number of undecideds are usual GOP or usual Democratic voters who are not satisfied with the standard-bearer of their usual party choice this time.

Team Clinton wants to stop them from “coming home” to vote for Trump by highlighting the contrast between Clinton-Kaine’s qualifications and Trump-Pence’s lack thereof. Yes, the world globally is a scary and complicated place … don’t put someone at the wheel who doesn’t know how to drive. Kaine is boring … and clearly qualified.

She is depending that fear of Trump (and her actual policy positions being pretty progressive in most cases) will drive her undecideds home. And yes on GOTV.

I think the usual swing voters will go mostly to Clinton.

An interesting and somewhat prescient WSJ article from May 2015 that identified a few factors.

Which voters, then, are up for grabs? On that front, there are cautionary notes for both parties, which shouldn’t take for granted the loyalties of some groups often assumed to be in their camps.

While young voters aged 18 to 34 are often assumed to be a solid Democratic bloc, for instance, the analysis finds many of them unattached to either party. Similarly, while Hispanics are part of the Democratic base generally, a significant share aren’t firmly rooted.

On the Republican side, young men and men with less than a college education aren’t as committed to the GOP cause as are older men. And while white working-class voters have been trending Republican for years, many appear up for grabs this time.

And here’s one early guess: young white women, and women with less than a college education, will be a target audience for both parties, because they don’t show strong loyalty to either one.

These pictures of the party bases and swing voters present some tantalizing early questions for the 2016 sweepstakes. Could Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee nail down the support of those crucial young women, and would she have the same appeal to those unattached young voters that Barack Obama did?

Trump is looking to grab some of the undecided/swingable younger and working class White men and Clinton hopes to grab a bunch of swingable non-college educated White women.

[septimus]

@RivkahChaya

An article just came out in the New Yorker …

I think this article could turn truly undecided voters to Clinton, and maybe wake up apathetic voters …

You posit two sets: (1) the set of American voters who will read New Yorker, whether in print or online; (2) the set of American voters undecided or apathetic.

I think the intersection of these two sets is quite small.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@DSeid

That’s clearly a contributor to the decision for Kaine.

To put it most simply:
Hillary’s worst polling group* is working class white males.
So she picks a VP candidate who looks like them.
(That he speaks fluent Spanish to Hispanic voters is just a bonus.)

*Of the groups that are winnable. Obviously groups like born-again fundamentalists, white power advocates, etc. are completely unwinnable.

[RivkahChaya]

@septimus

You posit two sets: (1) the set of American voters who will read New Yorker, whether in print or online; (2) the set of American voters undecided or apathetic.

I think the intersection of these two sets is quite small.

I think I acknowledged that. There’s the very slim chance, however, that this article might “go viral,” or something, and reach a lot of people who don’t normally read the New Yorker. After all, The Art of the Deal, was a huge seller, so maybe people who bought the book would read the article, especially now that it’s online and free.

I posted a link to it on my Facebook page, and almost everyone I know has copied it. So I’m doing my part. Posted it here as well. That may be preaching to the choir, but now you all have the link and can pass it on.

[astorian]

The important thing is what’s NOT going to move people.

Trump chose foolishly to make this a law and order campaign. And right now, most Americans have no good reason to be worried about crime. Right now, crime is low and so is unemployment. Yes, there are problems, but 2016 is the wrong year to be running on a platform of “Everything in America is going straight to Hell.”

Moderate voters are likely to think, “All in all, things are okay, and there’s no need for a radical change.”

[Roderick_Femm]

@astorian

The important thing is what’s NOT going to move people.

Trump chose foolishly to make this a law and order campaign. And right now, most Americans have no good reason to be worried about crime. Right now, crime is low and so is unemployment. Yes, there are problems, but 2016 is the wrong year to be running on a platform of “Everything in America is going straight to Hell.”

Moderate voters are likely to think, “All in all, things are okay, and there’s no need for a radical change.”

The Democrats seem to be pushing a stronger version of this already, cf. the speeches yesterday by Clinton and Paine. America is already great (be careful not to forget to note that there is still plenty of room for improvement, great does not equal perfect).

It is common conservative cant to be uber-proud of their country, which is a position hard to maintain when they are also agreeing that everything is going to hell. So Trump’s speech, I think, over-sold that message enough to make even conservatives uncomfortable. I don’t know how much that will swing any votes, however.

[PastTense]

A major terrorism attack right before the election could swing votes to Trump. Bad economic news could swing votes to Trump.