What regime change? They were already protected by China for pragmatic reasons. The only change would come from within. (Unless you think that somehow the CIA was going to get in and bribe/control enough officials to pull off a coup, in a country steeped in government and anti-American propaganda.)
True about the chance of a regime change a la Ukraine or Lybia or Syria being instigated. Virtually nil.
But it is better if the deterrent to an invasion is in your own hands than depending on the protection of China.
After all, they just might prefer not risk it to actually protect you, when push comes to shove.
[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
You have to give him some credit, by joining the nuclear club he has made NK immune from attack, as long as he doesn’t use them.
[/QUOTE]
What made North Korea immune from attack the other 60 odd years? 
Must have been their consistent and sparkling personalities.
[QUOTE=igor frankensteen]
North Korea has faced an unbroken hostility from the United States and it’s allies, since it came into being. Hardly a surprise, that the more isolated they come to be politically, the more hostile they will feel they MUST be, in order to preserve their existence.
[/QUOTE]
I think you have your cause and effect backward.
As for the OP, I think the Bee Gees said it best (to paraphrase): Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I’m a woman’s man: no time to talk…Feel the city breakin’ and everybody shakin’…Ah, ha, ha, ha, stayin’ alive, stayin’ alive
Part of the problem is that Trumpelthinskin’s antics have increasingly made his seat at the big boy table into a reluctantly tolerated formality rather than the natural result of the USA’s traditional role as leader of the Free World, and on some level he knows it.
The geopolitical situation would have to change pretty radically for China not to fear a united Korea under American influence.
That seems like the logical answer, but if that’s what he truly wants, do his actions make sense? How does threatening to launch four missiles that just barely miss Guam help him maintain power? If he goes through with it he runs the risk of the US launching a disproportionate first strike. Of course that makes no sense politically, but it also makes no sense military. The biggest advantage NK has is if they were to launch there own surprise first strike. By launching missiles at the ocean near Guam, they run the real risk of losing the opportunity for a strong first strike, having traded it for a very weak first strike. If he backs down he looks weak in front of his own people. Could it be possible Un really thinks Trump won’t respond at all to the proposed Guam missile attack? It seems to me the best way for him to approach things would be to try and make some kind of deal similar to what Iran made with Obama.
On the other hand if the US actually does launch any kind of military strike on North Korea Kim is likely to interpret as a sign the end is nigh and launch everything he has at once.
That’s what I don’t get. If he waits until after the US attacks, “everything he has” will be less effective because he will no longer have the things that get destroyed in our initial attack. That’s why I don’t get this threat to attack Guam with four missiles that will be aimed to miss, unless Un thinks Trump will completely ignore the provocation. That seems like a pretty stupid assumption to make about how Trump will react.
I think at that point his generals will shoot the little shit before he ever push the button.
Not a chance. Totally wishful thinking. If his generals thought they could shoot him he’d have bullet in his head already. Anyone who the little shit thinks would even consider it has already posed for gun fire…or in one case, death by mortar. Hell, his brother was killed by two strumpets with a needle full of VX.
Maybe maybe not but you have to think that they won’t stand by and let him push the button and seal their fate.
How succesful has the US been in stopping the flow of illegal drugs within the US? It seems a bit ridiculous to expect countries with much lower means to be able to do what you yourselves cannot.
As for NK, part of the noise seems to be about wanting to be relevant in the world stage when there are a lot of reasons your country would be seen as a serious candidate for the short bus.
Bolding mine.
Using the word “attack” to describe missiles landing in international waters is IMO a bit over the top. There’s a big difference between firing a warning shot over the bow and shooting to hit. Yes, both are escalatory, but the huge difference of degree amounts to a difference of kind.
There certainly are risks for Kim shooting his warning shot(s). What if one misses its aimpoint and hits the island instead? What if all 4 fail inflight? Or the rockets explode on launch? Or, as you suggest, he provokes the US into a more vigorous response, overt or covert?
My bottom line: Choosing to mislabel a provocation as an attack is choosing to escalate the rhetoric ahead of the event when pretty much everyone’s stated goal is to de-escalate. However bad the situation actually is, exaggerating it won’t help.
[QUOTE=LSLGuy]
Using the word “attack” to describe missiles landing in international waters is IMO a bit over the top. There’s a big difference between firing a warning shot over the bow and shooting to hit. Yes, both are escalatory, but the huge difference of degree amounts to a difference of kind.
[/QUOTE]
Except that the last article I read said they planned to have the missiles fall into the 200 mile EEZ…which does make it an ‘attack’. Even if he isn’t planning to do that he is going to have to cross someone’s territory to head them towards Guam, and since we are talking about North Korean missiles there is a distinct chance that they aren’t going to hit where they aim them.
Bottom line is that if Kim et al DO plan to have the missiles land in the US’s EEZ it’s an attack. To put this another way, what do you think China would do if Japan launched a missile that hit in Chinese territorial waters? Would they say, oh, no biggie…not an ‘attack’? I’m thinking not. Hell, if someone tossed a missile into what IS, clearly, international waters off, say, some of their manufactured ‘islands’ in the South China Sea, do you suppose China would wave that off? :dubious:
I doubt very much KJU will order missiles to be fired anywhere near Guam. The notion that they would first “write down plans for the August launch” is ridiculous on face value. It’s empty rhetoric meant to see how far Trump can be pushed. Now they know that they are dealing with someone just as intellectually challenged as dear leader. In a sense, KJU has met his match in DJT.
Sure, I doubt he will either. He can’t know…hell, I don’t think anyone actually knows…what Trump might or might not do at this point. However, that wasn’t the point…Trump wasn’t going overboard or over the top calling such a plan an ‘attack’…it would be an attack if they did what they said they planned.
In a sense, it took a mental midget like DJT to show that other mental midget, KJU, the consequences of continued threats and posturing.
Grown-ups like previous administrations would never have entertained the idea of playing chicken with NK because of the potential for horrendous loss of lives at stake. Trump doesn’t give a fuck about that. All Trump cares about is not backing down because he has the US military to cash the checks his loud mouth is writing.
Even someone like KJU understand when he’s been out-crazied. I think it’s back to the drawing board for him. At least until Trump is out of the picture.
Besides, all the West Coast states and Hawaii that are under direct threat are blue ones. Win-win, right?
Well, Alaska’s red.
Alaska’s in a world all its own. 
Besides, it’s 3 EV out of 81 total.