Say that North Korea develops nuclear-armed ICBMs capable of hitting anywhere in the United States; what does NK actually do with this capability?
[ol]
[li]Launch an unprovoked attack on the USA[/li][li]Invade South Korea and use its nukes to stand off American intervention[/li][li]secretly supply nukes to anti-American terrorists[/li][li]Engage in an enhanced version of its foreign aid/blackmail negotiations[/li][li]Do little except ramp up the rhetoric about how big Kim’s dick is and how someday we’re really gonna’ get it.[/li][/ol]
seems too suicidal.
maybe; reunification has been the focus of their national identity since 1950. But I’m reminded of the joke about the dog that kept chasing cars- what would it do if it ever caught one? Do North Korean planners even have a plan for post-unification beyond “and then the heavens smiled down”?
Again, maybe; certainly NK would see any diminishment of US power to the good. But it would very risky, and somehow I wonder about anyone ever letting nukes out of their control for any reason.
4 & 5. who knows?
We are dealing with people who are effectively crazy. Applying reasonable standards to such people is as pointless as a blind man trying to appreciate the Mona Lisa by smell. Who among them truly understands that an act of actual war against the USA is a suicide note? And who believes that the USA quivers in fear at the very name of what’s-his-face?
I used to think that - now I’m not so sure. I mean, assume Kim’s goal is to stay in power no matter what. He looks at cases like Libya, where the U.S. helped depose the long-time dictator. Ask yourself, is the U.S. more likely or less likely to attempt that in the DPRK, once he has the power to lob a nuke at Seattle or L.A. in retaliation?
Suppose that in the near future Kim achieves the ability to nuke a major U.S. city, as it now seems likely he will. Suppose he understands that to do so would guarantee his death and the destruction of his regime. Suppose also that the U.S. recognizes that this understanding is the only thing holding him back, and if Kim’s death and the destruction of his regime were imminent, then he’d have no reason not to give the launch order.
Suddenly the U.S. has a very strong incentive to insure that the Kim regime sticks around, no?
Has Kim Jong Un actually acted irrationally? Yeah he kills family members and runs a tight dictatorship but that’s standard procedure for someone in his position. As far as hypotheticals go I think it would be safe to say hes a rational actor. At least he hasn’t fired any artillery rounds into Seoul cuz he woke up on the wrong side of the bed yet.
I personally think once they get nukes things will go on just as they did before but now they threaten with bigger bombs. Even with nukes their military capability to actually win a war with the US would barely increase.
Selling nukes is an interesting possibility. Mostly I’m wondering how much one would actually cost. I would think the price would be well out of the range of terrorist orgs and even smaller countries
I wonder if his regime would end if he attacked the US. China would almost certainly, if reluctantly, protect them because as odious as doing that would be to them the thought of US troops taking North Korea is absolutely 100% a non-starter with them. They fought the US in the past over this and will do so again if it comes to it.
Of course the US could not let that slide either. This makes it a good scenario for starting WWIII.
Maybe, perhaps, the US could tell China they have to go in and clean house else the US will.
Really? I have no personal experience, but when I see Vlad the Impaler’s humorless eyes, I see a man who is too sane. Met some like that in meat life. Totally functional, but there’s a part missing. When I say “crazy”, I am not talking about something less than the best mental hygiene, I mean crazy!
Remember Nixon (and may the spit he roasts upon make annoying squeaks as it turns…). The conversation with Kissinger about the possible advantages in letting the Chinese think he was kinda nuts? Be careful with him, look out, be careful! I don’t call that crazy. Stupid, yes, irresponsible, sure, crazy, not quite. Your Mania May Very.
The thing is, I don’t think the U.S. would particularly want to take over North Korea, but would just want the current DPRK government out and their military destroyed. And North Korea as a Chinese province would at least be far less threatening than North Korea under Kim Jong-Un. I’m not sure China would particularly want North Korea either, but they’d presumably prefer that to a U.S. occupied NK or a unified Korea aligned with the U.S.
So maybe there’s room in this scenario for the U.S. to unload on the DPRK with air power, and then once North Korea’s armaments are either destroyed or spent against U.S. allies, China swoops in and takes over, largely unopposed by the U.S.
Assuming it’s acting rationally*, it uses the missiles for the same purpose as any other nuclear power: To deter its enemies from attacking or fomenting some kind of rebellion that could (further) destabilize the place.
*That is, so long as the leadership hasn’t smoked its own stash. They probably haven’t. Probably.
AK84 are you making an argument that North Korea operates under a harsh dictatorship, brutally killing it’s own citizens because it fears that the United States will get a wild hair and after waiting 70 years, will decide to bomb or invade North Korea?
Lets see, out of N Korea or the US, which has carried out multiple bombing campaigns on three continents over the past few decades, invaded other countries on false pretenses, set up torture centers right left and center and has Donald Trump as President?
I think that’s it. Without the world having fear of what he might do, his country would be just another poverty-stricken shithole that nobody cared about, except for the itch to go in there and fix it. By repeatedly showing how it isn’t worthwhile to think about it, he gets to keep presenting himself as the only one who can keep the DPRK in the top level of the World League. He needn’t fear a coup, either, with the only people who could consider it either dead or co-opted.
South Korea is going to be very, very unhappy anout that.
There is a tendency to think that because China is a key trading partner with the West and hasn’t been in open warfare for the last six decades that they are, if not an ally, at least a responsible and benevolent (if non-democratic) nation. However, for most of the last thosand years, China has been the dominant imperial power, reigning over the Korean Peninsula and much of Southeast Asia with an iron fist, losing their dominance and prestige to the British Empire. There is a reason the Chinese are universally feared and disliked all over Asia, and no one–particularly the Koreans–want them encroaching.
China, on the other hand, would love to have full reign over North Korea and writ to operate freely in the Sea of Japan.
