With Morsi overthrown and Egypt teetering on the brink of civil war, I have to wonder what our strategy is in Egypt and in the Middle East as a whole.
Articles like these seem to suggest a level of sympathy from the administration for the Muslim Brotherhood. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment of the ousters is decidedly anti-Obama.
This all leaves me flummoxed. What is our objective with Egypt? Shouldn’t we be happy that there is one less Islamic theocracy in power, possibly paving the way for a more Westernized Middle East? Or is the fear that the newly “victimized” Brotherhood will spawn more radicalism?
Conspiracy theories aside, I’d like to hear some theories on what our stance on Egypt is and how that ties in to other political elements like Syria, Israel, etc.
There’s not really great options. Obama had been saying before Morsi was removed that Morsi needed to work to resolve the issues Egypt was having. Morsi was democratically elected, but was behaving like an autocrat and it was looking like he was going to do his best to guarantee one party rule in Egypt with limited respect for minority rights.
The Obama administration doesn’t want to be seen to support a military coup, so their strategy is most likely to not make any strong comments in support of Morsi’s removal or any strong comments condemning it. Instead, he’s going to advocate for a quick turn back to democratic government with another round of constitution-writing that is acceptable to all stakeholders.
I’m not sure Obama really wants to shape events in Egypt so much as he doesn’t want to ruin America’s reputation with the various parties anymore than it already was.
Why the U.S government needs to have a strategy in Egypt?Why not let them find the solution to their own problems?
The american government already screw up really big by supporting Hosni Mubarak for decades.
While morally questionable it was a very good strategy. Do remember that there was a thing called the Cold War which shaped US relations with Egypt. Post Cold War Egypt was stable under Mubarak which was good given that he also honoured the peace treaty with Israel which further contributed to regional stability. All good things for the US.
Nobody knows how this is going to work out or what the resulting government might look like, so there really isn’t anything to do other than keep a close eye on it and hope it turns out well. Committing to one side or the other doesn’t make sense. Nobody over there is looking for American approval or encouragement, and if you back the losing side, the winners will be pissed.
Do you mean militarily or because of the potential for smuggling of weapons into Gaza?
I don’t honestly know the balance of forces there but I am under the impression that Israel can easily stomp any neighbor or any combination of neighbors in a military conflict. I seem to recall Israel’s last couple of wars being quickly labeled “disproportionate” because Israel has a very capable military and doesn’t pull punches. Does the military of Egypt stack up? And would Egypt be up for a military adventure amidst all this upheaval?
I don’t know as much about the smuggling concerns but I assume Israel has a good compliment of solutions both overt and covert for dealing with it, on either side of the Egypt-Gaza border.
Where does the US come into it at all? No snark intended, I honestly can’t see how Egypt vs. Israel would even be a concern to the US.
Right you are. Camp David put Egypt on the gravy train ($1 billion per year plus huge
surplus grain shipments for many years) and took that country out of the Soviet orbit.
Our Camp David intervention produced a permanent peace between Egypt and Israel ,
and it took the Egyptian military away from Soviet Russian tutelage.
After the 2011 coup, the Egyptian Army’s mistake was to have the presidential election
and the creation of a Parliament BEFORE the drafting of a constitution. Either they or the
Obama government thought that having a democratic election first was the most important
first step. Well the USA and the Republic of France did not begin that way.
The first step was for the people to send delegates to a constitutional assembly or
convention. There was no president or king elected to shove an authoritarian document
past the input of the people’s delegates in the colonies and in France.
Obama doesn’t have to do much right now except encouraging the Egyptian government to exercise caution when using deadly force against the Islamist mobs while still openly supporting the new government in a speech to reduce the anti-American sentiment among those who launched the coup.
What has happened in the last week was probably the best-case scenario after Morsi’s election-the end of the MB-Army ceasefire and triumphant return of the secularist opposition backed by the tremendous power of the Egyptian Army and police.