Aside from life itself*, what is the least likely thing to have ever happened but has?
You hear of people who won multiple lotteries (with staggeringly long odds of this happening), surviving a bizarre combination of events (falling from a plane and landing in just the right snow drift to walk away with no injuries) etc.
So what is the least likely thing to have ever happend - but has and can anyone attribute realistic odds to these events?
Thanks
My submission is my beautiful wife saying ‘Yes’ when I asked her to marry me
I read somewhere that abiogenisis has odds of at least 1 in 10^167,896. Not that I wish to discuss those figures but its what led to the question.
In 1959, Tommy Allsup and Richie Valens agreed to flip a coin over who would get a seat on a plane. Valens won…and the plane crashed.
Just think of all the events in those two mens’ lives that had to occur…all to result in an innocent coin toss deciding which one lived, and which one died.
i read in an older guinness book of world records that a soviet stewardess survived a 33,000-foot fall. i truly wondered about the veracity of the report, although i think the guinness book checked out their sources pretty well.
then i looked online. here’s a link with a full account (hope it works; i’ve never posted a link before):
That would appear to be an anti-evolution site, so that the calculations may be highly suspect.
Given the fact that life appeared on Earth almost as soon as the physical conditions became possible for it to exist, I would say the demonstrated odds would have to much lower than that.
I really didn’t want to get dragged into whether those figures were correct or not otherwise I would not have posted in GQ. It just raised the question for me.
I see your point Mangetout. You can create any scenario and keep raising the odds. I was looking for something that had happened that had extremely long odds (and those odds) - for instance - what were the odds on Penicillin being discovered the way it was?
You often hear of ‘experts’ saying that such and such happened with odds of 10million to 1. I just wanted to know what the most unlikley thing every to have happened was - avoiding situations such as ‘what are the odds that all of leaves in the Amazon are in exactly that position at one time’ scenarios.
Playing off what Mangetout said, the trivial answer is that the most unlikely thing that has happened is the history of the universe in its entirety. Since probablities are multiplied when combined and nothing can have a probability greater than one, the least probable sequence of events will be had by grouping all events together.
Want the most improbable thing that has happened besides life itself? It’s everything that has happened, except for life itself.
The Big Bang itself and the fact that all those physical constants which could have been anything turned out to create a universe which created minds which could ask this question. Therefore, the existance of our minds is probably the least probable of all.
Here is one candidate: The asteroid or comet that struck the Yucatan 65 million years ago may or may not have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs (a little controversial). It probably killed circa 75% of the life then on earth (not really controversial).
The chance of an asteroid over a kilometer hitting earth in any particular year is a bit over 1 in a million based on current best guesses. So that an object that big actually did hit, say on August 5, 65m B.C – it was more than a one in a million long shot that undoubtedly changed the history of life on this planet – how radically we can quibble with.
Thanks cornflakes!! I do appreciate the maths involved. The odds of just getting your reply when figured into the history of mankind are astronomically high.
But it still isn’t quite what I was looking for unfortunately Aside from my accepted marriage proposal and the much more unlikely ‘correctly spelt post’, off the top of my head I would say some of the flukey medical discoveries must rank up there in the list of long shots that came off.
However I’m not an actuary so I couldn’t even start to put odds on events like the discovery of penicillin! Which is why I came here …
Wow! Are the odds really only just a bit over 1 million to one? So there is more chance of 75% of life being wiped out than of me winning the lottery (the odds I believe are/were 1 in 14mill)? I knew I would end up educated out of this thread. Thanks jimmmy
No point buying a lottery ticket this weekend then
What are the odds of this happening to someone not just once - but twice?
On August 17, 1957, Alice Roth and her two grandsons were watching the Philadelphia Phillies play New York when a foul by Richie Ashburn hit her in the face, knocking her unconscious. Medical personnel rushed to the aid of the injured woman and carted her off. . . . As soon as play resumed, Ashburn whacked another foul ball, which hit Roth again (as she was being transported on the stretcher). She suffered a broken nose, a black eye, and a bruised thigh, while her grandkids got to tell all their friends about the day they rode in the front of the ambulance.
The “wow” factor in events that have occurred aren’t in the events themselves, but in the significance we place on the outcome. Just about everything that happens would be an extremely rare event if you consider the probabilities before it happened.
If you play a hand of bridge, whatever 13 cards you are dealt is extremely unlikely, but each hand has an equal chance and if you play some extremely unlikely outcome must occur. We would really be shocked if we got all spades, but any hand we get should from a probability standpoint be equally amazing.
Three guys went to a baseball game and were cutting up food to share in the stands. As one of them passed the knife across the guy in the middle, a ball hit for a home run into the stands drove the knife into the heart of the poor bastard in the middle, instantly killing him.
In other words it is a near certainty over even short periods of geological time.
From memory (geology graduation 1985) there have probably been several such exinction events over the geological record, some more important than others. IIRC there is a theory that the earth passes through an orbiting band of higher than average risk as there seems to be some statistically significant pattern. An the odds of a significant “history of life” changing event has got to be alot more than 1 in a million given such events are generally separated by at least 10’s of millions of years IIRC.
Over long enough periods of time remote events become highly likely to have occurred at some point, if not in any particular year. Any of those (including evolutionary events, geographic and geological and probably in many other fields) knock news worthy events happening to use humans over recorded history into the proverbial cocked-hat.
As aahala so rightly observes:
It so difficult to appreciate statistics and probability. For instance, I read somewhere that a randomly selected player should not purchase a UK lottery ticket before around 5.30 pm on the evening of the 7 pm draw if he does not want to have, on average, a higher chance of dying (of any cause) first than of actually winning the jackpot!!
Given those sort of odds any “favourite story” of unlikely series of events is just that - which is not to say I do not enjoy hearing them!
I was going to mention the Big Bang, but Galen beat me to it. Carrying that on to the existance of our minds is completely his idea. I’d like to second his nomination and change it to intelligent life.
Doesn’t really signify for the OP. I think it can be assumed that we’re talking about documented events. Nobody has done a study of all the cups of vending machine coffee cups (to my knowledge) that would supply the specific molecular makeup of each cup.
That was why I posted it with a date – that the asteroid would hit at that particular point the odds were astronomically (so to speak) high. As you also point out some of these have less impact (haha) on life … but the Yucatan event did.
Using your lottery example, If I were immortal and played the lottery every week the odds are that at some point I will win. The odds that I would win at any single drawing are 14mil. to 1. Even the drawing I would eventually win. Statistics are funny.
Aside from my accepted marriage proposal and the much more unlikely ‘correctly spelt post’, off the top of my head I would say some of the flukey medical discoveries must rank up there in the list of long shots that came off.