…regarding cause of death? I’m curious…and paranoid to boot. I’d really like to know some things about the risks i face…like:
-what are my chances of being killed y lightning?
-how probable is it that I could be killed by a shark/
-is it likely that I could fall victim to a beserk ex-husband?
So, i know that the actuaries of Life insurance Companies know pretty well how long you are going to live. I’d just like to know REALLY what are the levels of risk i face…so that i can avopid these little impediments 9to living to 100)!@
In general, life insurance companies know way more than you might want them to. I worked as a software designer for Metropolitan Life back in the 70s and 80s and it’s actually pretty scary how much they know about their “insureds”. That’s why life insurance DP operations have such high security levels … the security is actually controlled by the government due to the “sensitive information” involved.
Actuaries compile statistics on just about anything that responds to number crunching; I’ve no doubt that the information you’re seeking is available. I’d suggest you Google with the following: “cause of death” statistics
A good place to start might be http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
Son of an actuary here…
(Obligatory jokes:
Q: What’s an actuary?
A: Where they bury dead actors
Q: Why does an actuary use the urinal on the end?
A: 50% less likely to get their shoes pissed on.
back to the thread…)
There are few hard and fast probabilities of any cause of death. It all must be taken in context. If you spend your whole life in Iowa, the likelihood of shark attack is minimal, but the likelihood of tornadoes and floods goes up. Your likelihood of being killed by lightning is much less in San Diego than it would be somewhere more stormy.
The actuaries don’t know ho long you’re going to live, only the likelihood of a particular lifespan based on your current circumstances. Change your circumstances (quit smoking, change diet, move to a different location) and your probable lifespan may change. The actuaries job is simply to compile the effects of all the circumstances in your life into a result that indicates when you personally will likely die, barring some change.
Actuary here.
Nobody (other than God Himself) knows how long any individual is going to live. Actuaries can only make predictions based on average mortality rates. These predictions are generally quite accurate for large exposure groups when mortality rates are stable or improving in a predictable manner. But the predictions are always at an aggregate level e.g. you might predict a certain number of deaths among the pool of 40 year-old female insured lives. You can’t name which ones will die (and usually don’t care very much anyway).
ralph124c writes:
> -what are my chances of being killed y lightning?
About 75 people a year are killed by lightning in the U.S.
> -how probable is it that I could be killed by a shark/
If I recall correctly, less than 5 people a year are killed by sharks in the U.S.
> -is it likely that I could fall victim to a beserk ex-husband?
Quit screwing around with divorcees with crazy ex-husbands and your chance will drop to zero.
The CDC publishes yearly statistics for the major causes of death, though it doesn’t list rare causes like lightning or sharks, it does list the top 10 causes, which account for 80% of deaths.
– Barton Keyes (Edward G. Robinson), Double Indemnity