I’ve been getting the sense lately that there is very little consensus on what this term means.
By the definition I’d use, I find very few movies or TV shows qualify. (Novels and short stories are a whole other matter, but they are also so vast in number and reach such a relatively niche audience, I think we should leave them out of this discussion.) Maybe the easiest way to explain my standards would be to point out some examples that don’t qualify, IMO (although a lot of the content excluded is stuff I nevertheless greatly enjoy):
(1) Anything with “warp”, “hyperdrive”, or “FTL” travel. That knocks out Star Wars (which has no chance anyway for so many other reasons), Star Trek, BSG, Stargate, Andromeda, and Interstellar.
(2) Portrayal of “artificial gravity” that does not involve acceleration or rotation. Now we also lose Firefly/Serenity.
(3) Instant communications, with no lag. I’m not sure if there’s anything that escaped the above two but gets knocked out here, but it’s another strike against Firefly/Serenity.
(4) Probably the most arguable category: anything where the science gets a little hazy/mystical and slides over into woo. After a promising beginning, this was how Arrival fell apart for me. 2001’s middle act is truly excellent hard sci-fi, but everything involving the monolith gets very “woo”. And it’s another strike against Interstellar (thinking here about the sappy ending, although there are some other lesser issues earlier).
So what survives these cuts? It’s a lot easier for near-future type stories, stuff we could imagine happening in our lifetimes: Gattaca, The Martian, Gravity, Deep Impact. Sunshine probably fits in this category, too: although its last act jumps the shark badly (whereas its first half might be the best hard sci fi movie ever made), it does so in a way that doesn’t necessarily disqualify it as hard SF. And quite a few of the Black Mirror stories would qualify, I think (there might be some disagreement as to how many and which ones).
When the setting is further in the future, 22nd century and beyond, there is very very little I can think of that doesn’t run afoul of one of the rules I laid out. In fact, I can think of only one movie and one TV show. The movie is for my money one of the most underrated releases in recent memory: Passengers, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. And the TV show is SyFy’s The Expanse, although I caution that I’ve only seen the pilot of that show.
So what others am I missing? Or do you think I’ve unfairly disqualified some worthy contenders?